Mass. Senate race awaits decision by Scott Brown

• The Bay State has a new%2C temporary U.S. senator
• If ex-senator Scott Brown runs%2C June special election could be a big deal
• Without Brown%2C Republicans have few options

Everything is ready for a Senate special election in Massachusetts – except a Republican candidate.

As Sen. John Kerry leaves office after 29 years to become secretary of State, Gov. Deval Patrick on Wednesday appointed former top aide William "Mo" Cowan as an interim replacement, who immediately said he would not run for the seat. The special election, required by Massachusetts law, has been set for June 25. Longtime Democratic Congressman Ed Markey has assembled a campaign staff and has $3 million in the bank. On Thursday, Rep. Stephen Lynch, another Democrat, will announce he is running, too. No problem, a primary date has been scheduled for April 30.

Now everyone is just waiting for Scott Brown.

The Republican who shocked Democrats by winning Sen. Edward Kennedy's vacant seat in 2010, then lost it in November to Elizabeth Warren, has yet to say whether he wants to try for the Senate for a third time. Back in Massachusetts, Brown is going to the movies and attending gigs played by his daughter's band, according to his Facebook posts and tweets. But is he running?

"That's the No. 1 question,'' says Tim Buckley, spokesman for the Massachusetts Republican Party.

"It certainly seems like he's being coy enough,'' says Kevin Franck, the Democrats' spokesman.

With Brown as a candidate, the Massachusetts race would immediately become the 2013 race to watch. Without him, it looks like a Democratic cakewalk.

There is no other plausible Republican waiting in the wings, says Todd Domke, a Republican media consultant and political analyst. "To say even that we have a bench is misleading.''

Brown's race against Warren was expensive -- the two spent $42 million – despite an unusual "People's Pledge" agreed to by the candidates that kept out third-party advertising. Brown lost by 8 percentage points but retained the goodwill of voters: He had a 60% favorable rating in exit polls.

"That's a very unusual number for someone who's just lost the election,'' says Steve Koczela, president of MassINC Polling Group.

A poll this month by MassINC shows Brown with a 23-point lead over Markey, who is far less well known. "He certainly would start out with an edge. ... People know who he is and still have a positive image of him,'' Koczela says.

An automated poll from PPP released Wednesday shows Brown with a slimmer lead: 48%-45%. And Brown could also hold out for 2014 and run for governor; Patrick will not be running for re-election.

Markey has been endorsed for by the national Democratic Party as well as Kerry and Victoria Kennedy, Edward Kennedy's widow.

Lynch will announce he is running Thursday. By Massachusetts standards, he is a conservative Democrat. A former ironworker from South Boston, he opposes abortion and voted against President Obama's 2010 health care overhaul (so did then-senator Brown). "Those are big problems for him in a Democratic primary,'' says Mike Shea, a Democratic media consultant in Boston..

Tobe Berkovitz, who teaches political media at Boston University, says that for Democrats, this race isn't likely to have the excitement of 2012. "Elizabeth Warren was for many people such a compelling figure, such an un-politician, a heroine you could throw your support behind. Ed Markey is a traditional solid liberal congressman. Big difference there.''

Brown, too, may have lost some of his magic, Domke says. "Brown now is looked upon more as a career politician himself. There's not that clear contrast that a lot of Republicans like to think there is,'' he says. When Brown burst on the scene in 2010, "there was electricity going through conservatives for Brown. This time, it's more like static electricity, because there's a lot of disappointment.''

A smaller turnout of voters, typical in a special election compared with a presidential-year general election, would likely include fewer Democrats, a positive for Brown.

Not if Democrats can help it, of course. "It's less than three months ago that we had Election Day, so we know where our volunteers are,'' Franck says. After being caught "asleep at the switch" in 2010, Democrats have developed a strong turnout operation, he says. "We built this in response to Scott Brown beating us in a special (election), but we've built and nurtured this through two election cycles.''

Whoever wins in June will have to run again in 2014 for a full six-year term. That adds up to four Senate elections in five years. Still, the MassINC poll showed that Democrats, at least, haven't lost their appetite for campaigns: 71% said they would prefer a primary contest between two Democrats.

"Politics and the Red Sox are the two major sports of Boston and Massachusetts,'' Shea says. "We might complain a lot, but everybody watches the game.''