College Football Countdown | No. 84: Illinois

There are easier things than being an Illinois fan. Rocket science, for example, or understanding the dense principles of general relativity, running a four-minute mile, writing the Great American Novel and scaling Mount Everest, to name a few.

It's the sheer unpredictability of it all. Every day is opposite day for Illinois; what's up is down, good is bad, left is right, and rarely – if ever, and I mean ever – does Illinois do exactly what most expect Illinois to do. Are the Illini expected to challenge for the Rose Bowl? Plan on staying home in December. Is Illinois pegged for last in the Big Ten? The year might not end in Pasadena, but hey, the Illini won't be that bad.

But this much we know: Illinois will be interesting, for better or worse, and Illinois will surprise – again, for better or worse. Only once in the last century have the Illini won at least eight games in back-to-back years. Illinois went to the Sugar Bowl in early 2002 and won a combined 13 games during the next five years; Illinois went to the Rose Bowl in early 2008 and went 8-16 during the ensuing two seasons.

The issue in 2014: Illinois is getting some love. The worst days are behind the Illini and third-year coach Tim Beckman, most say, and this specific team has the experience – and the schedule – to break into bowl eligibility. This would be great elsewhere. But we know what happens when the Illini have nice things.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION :

Here's a question: In how many games will Illinois be favored? Not many. A team with title aspirations would love to have that home slate, in a sense. A struggling team like Illinois, on the other hand, won't have an easy road through 2013. I wouldn't be surprised if the Illini took one home game against a stronger opponent, since that happens every year, but there's a strong chance that the Illini win only a single home against FBS competition all season.

2013 RECAP :

In a nutshell: An improved team, though improved relative only to the disaster that was Beckman's debut. Illinois won four games, three in September, one by 28 points against a strong – if bipolar – nine-win Cincinnati team. But then the calendar turned to the Big Ten; then it all seemed so familiar. The Illini's lone league win would come against Purdue, which had its worst season in a century. Only two conference losses came by single digits: Penn State and Northwestern. Six Big Ten opponents scored at least 37 points, paced by Ohio State's 60-point explosion, while nine opponents in total scored at least 34 points. This is how a team that upped its own scoring total by 78% – from 200 to 356 points – still lost eight games.

High point: That 45-17 win against Cincinnati. It wasn't a tone-setter, as some might have suggested at the time; Illinois did go on to lose its first six Big Ten games. But the win did show how the Illini can click when the offense and defense work in concert.

Low point: Another extended losing streak during Big Ten action.

Tidbit: Illinois' win against Purdue snapped the program's 20-game losing streak in Big Ten play. The longest active conference losing streak now belongs to those Boilermakers, who bring an eight-game slide into the 2014 season. The longest winning streak belongs to Michigan State, and it's by a landslide: MSU has won 10 in a row – the finale in 2013, all nine a year ago – with Iowa, at three in a row, a distant second.

Tidbit (recruiting edition): Illinois has largely failed to gain a recruiting foothold within its home state, with one significant exception: Aaron Bailey, now a sophomore quarterback, was ranked among the top 150 players nationally in the class of 2013. But this most recent signing group included no players ranked among the top 15 inside Illinois, per Rivals.com, and only one player inside the top 20 – the state's 20th-best prospect, according to the recruiting site. So who runs this state? Only one program has inked one of the state's top-five recruits in each of the last two cycles: LSU.

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST :

Eastern Illinois coaching alumni

1. Sean Payton
2. Mike Shanahan
2. Brad Childress
4. Mike Heimerdinger
5. Kirby Wilson

PLAYERS TO WATCH :

Offense: Illinois' most promising quarterback prospect in a decade – if not, you know, decades – has already grabbed a firm hold on the starting job. This is to the surprise of no one: Wes Lunt was the heir apparent since the day he arrived on campus, after claiming and then losing the starting job as a true freshman at Oklahoma State, and his ascension to the starting role – if absolutely expected – comes with the fanfare and acclaim reserved only for those quarterbacks with the ability to alter a program's general direction. What can he do for Illinois? Let's keep it simple: Lunt can make every throw in the book, can stretch the field, can operate a quick-moving, quarterback-based system and can lift an off-and-on passing game to a level not seen in Memorial Stadium in, yes, decades.

Let's also remember that he's not your traditional first-year starter. Lunt won the job in Stillwater as a rookie, edging both J.W. Walsh and Clint Chelf, and started the Cowboys' first two games before going down to injury; in his one notable start, Lunt threw for 437 yards and four scores in a 59-38 loss at Arizona. He then joined Illinois a season ago, spending last fall learning the tricks of the trade in coordinator Bill Cubit's offense – giving the sophomore a crash course in Illinois' system, which came in handy once he regained eligibility during spring drills. My basic point: In terms of pure talent and experience in what Illinois wants to do offensively, Lunt is ahead of the curve. How quickly he can translate these assets into production hinges in part on Cubit, who needs to fit this offense around his new quarterback, as well as on Lunt himself, who has every skill to succeed but likely needs time to develop an all-around game.

But the future under center is blindingly bright. Lunt's strong arm opens up every nook and cranny of Cubit's playbook, giving the Illini a widespread, touch-every-corner approach to the passing game; Cubit loves these strong-armed options, as shown during his stint at Western Michigan. The Illini also return Aaron Bailey, a four-star prospect with the mobility to carve out a side role either behind or alongside Lunt, should that be an option Cubit will consider. In my mind, it's a no-brainer: Bailey is too talented to leave collecting dust on the sidelines – and giving the sophomore a spot with the offense may keep him with the program, of course. But the focus is on Lunt, and deservedly so. If he can control Illinois' pacing and tempo, look for the transfer to make significant strides as the new starter.

The ground game will again be led by junior Josh Ferguson (779 yards), a viable every-down back whose pass-catching skills – 50 receptions last fall – should make him one of Lunt's early security blankets. Ferguson could be even more productive on the ground when teamed with an explosive downfield passing game, one that forces the back seven to creep away from the line of scrimmage. It's the same rotation as a season ago: Ferguson leads, senior Donovonn Young (376 yards) chips in when needed and sophomore Devin Church is ready in reserve.

In terms of a starting five, this offensive line is very easily the best of Beckman's tenure. Note the caveat: Illinois is solid and experienced among the starting quintet – if a bit unproven at right tackle – but lacking in depth on the second tier, and I wonder how well this group would stand up against the Big Ten if one of the top four missed an extended amount of time due to injury. Focus on the positives: Illinois returns left tackle Simon Cvijanovic, left guard Michael Heitz and center Alex Hill, all seniors, along with junior right guard Ted Karras, who may be the best of the bunch. That leaves right tackle, where the Illini should end up with sophomore Austin Schmidt. Again, depth is my major concern. Illinois will make use of sophomore Joe Spencer, who has the ability to flex between multiple positions, but the line will need a boost from redshirt freshman Christian DiLauro and junior Chris O'Connor to roll out an adequate and dependable second tier. That may be too much to ask. Keep an eye on Schmidt, since Illinois could shuffle the lineup – with Heitz moving outside – if he can't handle the load.

Defense: The immediate impact of February's signing class will be felt most on offense, particularly at the receiver position – more below. But one new addition stands out on defense: JUCO transfer Carroll Phillips will be tasked with replacing Houston Bates as Illinois' hybrid end-linebacker, one of the pivotal spots on the defensive side of the ball. Will he be up to the challenge? Well, he'd better be. If not, Illinois would need to cobble together some pressure from senior DeJazz Woods and sophomore Dawuane Smoot, and neither seemed likely a viable option coming out of the spring. Another JUCO transfer, Jihad Ward, should start at end, where he'd back up junior Kenny Nelson, but he has the size to dabble inside in certain packages. The big story up front: Illinois has solid depth, if no single linemen worthy of double-teamed attention. Look for Phillips and Nelson to start at end, flanking senior Austin Teitsma and junior Teko Powell, while Woods, Smoot, Ward, Paul James, Joe Fotu and Jarrod Clements round out the second tier. It's a taller, deeper, perhaps more athletic group – but much does depend on Phillips on the edge.

The Illini lose Jonathan Brown, a disruptive presence on the weak side, and will retool on the second level around junior Mason Monheim (97 tackles, 6.5 for loss), an all-conference contender in the middle. The staff has a few options in replacing Brown: Ralph Cooper, who might hold the post-spring edge, along with sophomore T.J. Neal and junior Mike Svetina. No one of these potential starters will come close to matching Brown's ability to upset timing in the backfield. One player who could, however, is senior Earnest Thomas (101 tackles), who will move from safety to the Illini's star position, a hybrid linebacker-defensive back. That move adds major speed into the box.

It's a sophomore-heavy secondary. One, Taylor Barton, will step into Thomas' shoes at strong safety. Illinois will team Barton with senior free safety Zane Petty (75 tackles), who brings experience to the table – needed among this group – but must do a better job patrolling the back end; Illinois allowed 44 completions of 20 or more yards last fall, fourth-most in the Big Ten, and 18 plays of 30 or more yards, tied for second-most. It'll be juniors Eaton Spence (49 tackles) and V'Angelo Bentley at cornerback, the latter a promising athlete, but I imagine Spence could shift to safety if the Illini's many sophomores step forward before the opener. Here's where you see the sophomores, currently backing up the starters across the board, and it may just be a matter of time until one or two move into starting roles.

Special teams: I wouldn't call junior kicker Taylor Zalewski or senior punter Justin DuVernois the best in the Big Ten at their respective positions, but I'm not sure if any team in the conference has as trustworthy a kicking pair. That counts for something. Add Bentley to the mix at returner – he's easily one of the league's best – and Illinois' special teams are no longer a constant nuisance. In many cases, in fact, the Illini will hold a clear advantage.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH :

Wide receiver: Illinois' top four receivers are gone – farewell and goodbye, Steve Hull – leaving Cubit, Lunt and this passing game rebuilding behind a cast thin on game-day experience. As such, a pair of targets stand out: Martize Barr (26 receptions for 246 yards) and Justin Hardee. Barr's a former JUCO transfer who hit the ground running last fall, making 20 grabs in the Illini's first six games, before tailing off down the stretch; such a disappearing act – even if more about the play of those seniors than Barr's own talent – can't occur in 2014. Hardee, meanwhile, seemed a promising talent as a freshman before falling out of favor a year ago. Joining this pair are several newcomers: Geronimo Allison, a JUCO transfer who enrolled early, making the most of that opportunity; true freshman Mikey Dudek, another early enrollee who impressed during the spring – and that may be putting it lightly; and JUCO transfer Tyrin Stone-Davis, who was unable to join the Illini for spring drills and may be behind the curve come fall camp. Add senior tight ends Matt LaCosse (20 for 237) and Jon Davis (25 for 208) into the mix and you have enough bodies to make this work, though experience remains a significant concern. What would be disappointing: Illinois locates a strong-armed, next-level quarterback but is unable to surround him with the necessary pieces in the passing game. There's a ton of pressure on the newcomers to deliver.

GAME(S) TO WATCH :

Washington: With Purdue, Minnesota and Penn State coming to Memorial Stadium, a perfect mark during non-conference play will leave the Illini in a great position to claim bowl eligibility. That makes Washington a big one: Illinois shouldn't have too much trouble with home dates against Youngstown State, Western Kentucky and Texas State, but that road trip to Seattle will provide a stern test.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION :

In a nutshell: There are two ways this can go. One: Illinois lacks balance on offense, has no prayer on defense and scuffles its way through the Big Ten, finding itself at or near the bottom of the West Division – again among the league's worst. Two: Illinois' newer look – at quarterback, receiver, defensive line – yields a strongly improved performance, making the Illini an easy bowl team and one of the Big Ten's most pleasant surprises. Where you stand might depend on your level of faith in the program, this team and this coaching staff; it also depends on your willingness to believe a team fresh off six wins in a two-year span can match that magic number in 2014.

It's hard to get on board. Issues? Illinois has several, beginning with its in-progress defense. In my mind, the line is deeper despite a few losses to graduation and attrition; the line is still young, for one, and very reliant on the immediate impact of two JUCO recruits, one pegged for a starting role. The linebacker corps loses its most devastating producer. The secondary has young talent in reserve, but can we really trust these five starters to hold fast during Big Ten play? And what if the run defense sputters – can this secondary limit big plays downfield if Tim Banks needs to add support into the box? I have a sneaking suspicion that Illinois' defense will be an Achilles heel.

And then there's this: Despite the issues – the defense, the youth, the concerns about the coaching – Illinois could still take six, seven, even eight games during the regular season. Again, this is the program of unpredictability. Lunt is a keeper at quarterback. The backfield has the horses to grind out yards on the ground; the line is Beckman's best, though depth is in high demand. Perhaps Illinois scores enough points to offset the question marks on defense. A possibility? Absolutely. I'm just hesitant to get on the Illini's bandwagon. I call for a five-win season, with three in September, and a sixth-place finish in the West.

Dream season: Illinois goes 9-3, notching notable wins against Iowa and Nebraska, to finish second in the West Division.

Nightmare season: The Illini fall to 3-9, again beating only Purdue in Big Ten play.

UP NEXT :

Who's No. 83? This program scored more points during the final six games of 2010 than in all of last season.