College Football Countdown | No. 123: Hawaii

Just because you can always go home again doesn't mean you should. Take the case of Hawaii native Norm Chow, who performed magnificently as an assistant for decades – making a strong claim for being the finest offensive coordinator in college football history – before finally landing his shot at the top job with the hometown Warriors, only to stumble and scuffle through two of the least successful seasons in school history.

Here's how things have changed under Chow's watch: Hawaii is in the position where overtime losses are cause for celebration, where it took all of 12 games to net that elusive first win and avoid the program's second winless season of the modern era. Things have changed, basically, and all for the worse.

But don't you remember the good old days? Hawaiians up front on both ends – LaBoy, Alama-Francis, Satele. California speed on the edges – Lelie, Salas, Bess. Confident, record-breaking quarterbacks under center. For a time, a spot alongside Boise State as the most powerful non-BCS conference program west of the Mississippi.

COUNTDOWN:No. 128 | No. 127 | No. 126 | No. 125 | No. 124

Hawaii hasn't stood this far off the national radar since the days before June Jones, the offensive mastermind who took a broken foundation, carved out a winner and eventually reached the Sugar Bowl – and is now getting it done at SMU. The issue then was soap, a good stand-in for Jones' general sense that he was wanted far more by his future employer than his current one. There may be more soap in the dispensers today, but one thing hasn't changed: Hawaii lacks commitment.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION :

It's going to be hard for Hawaii to score enough points to win games when the offensive line is in shambles, the quarterback position in flux and the backfield devoid of any proven game-breaking talent. Both sides of the ball remain a work in progress, the offense far more so than the defense. Hawaii will start either 0-5 or 1-4, ending any hope of a massive rebound, but should win three games from UNLV through the end of the regular season. Should, mind you, and there's no assurance that this season ends any differently than last.

2013 RECAP :

In a nutshell: Hawaii entered the finale against Army needing a victory to avoid the program's first winless season since 1998 – the year before Jones' arrival, by the way – and second overall. One could say that win was coming: UH was competitive if sloppy in overtime losses to San Diego State and Wyoming, two could-have-been-wins, and was clearly motivated by the specter of a winless finish. But let the Wyoming defeat serve as a microcosm of Hawaii's 2013 season. On the one hand, the Warriors scored 56 points, a program record for most points in a loss, while the offense gained 624 yards, a high under Chow. On the other, the defense gave up 59 points and a jaw-dropping 793 yards of offense, the latter a new program low, as you might expect. At Chow's Hawaii, one hand has no idea what the other is doing.

High point: Beating Army to enter the offseason on a high note – or a not-low note, maybe.

Low point: Any number of dispiriting losses, whether narrow or wide, during the run to an 0-11 start. Losses to USC and Oregon State were par for the course; more painful were the five losses by a touchdown or less.

Tidbit: Last year's team was the third in school history go winless in conference play. A second was in 1998, as noted. The third, in 1994, was the strangest season in program history: Hawaii went 0-8 in the Western Athletic Conference – long live the WAC – but went 3-0-1 in out-of-conference games, beating California and Oregon while tying Missouri. Yes, the Oregon team that won the Pac-10 and reached the Rose Bowl lost to Hawaii in September. In the Warriors' defense, 1994 was a great year for the WAC: Colorado State, Utah and Brigham Young finished ranked while six teams won four or more games in league play.

Tidbit (coaching edition): Only once all season did UH hold an opponent under 30 points. This led to an inevitable shift at defensive coordinator: Out is Thom Kaumeyer. In comes former Utah State assistant Kevin Clune. Chow and UH could do much worse than grabbing a Gary Andersen and Matt Wells disciple. If he follows a Utah State-like script, Clune will utilize an aggressive, attacking style that operates out of several formations with the 3-4 as the base set. He's an upgrade.

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST :

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1. Jerry Koosman
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3. Jon Matlack
4. Sid Fernandez
5. Jesse Orosco

PLAYERS TO WATCH :

Offense: A dedicated ground game breathed new life into Hawaii's offense during the final month of last season. Don't look for that to change this fall. From the opener through the first week of November: 586 yards on 240 carries. The last four games: 789 yards on 188 carries. Leading the charge was senior Joey Iosefa, who returned to the lineup and gained at least 91 yards in the final quartet, including a season-high 191 yards in a loss to Navy on Nov. 9. What impact did Iosefa have on the entire offense? Not only was scoring up, but the carryover to the passing game was obvious: Hawaii averaged 8.19 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns against only three interceptions in the final four games. Iosefa, a preseason all-conference contender, holds the key to the entire offense.

Senior Scott Harding (56 receptions for 631 yards) does it all: Harding plays inside receiver, returns punts and even punts, period, making him the only player in college football who both booms and catches punts. While his work on special teams is commendable, Harding is needed more so this fall as a skill player, helping UH supplant Chris Gant's production. A new name to watch at receiver is former Utah transfer Quinton Pedroza, who could move from inside to outside receiver as UH looks for a way to get its top two targets on the field simultaneously. One thing you'll see throughout this receiver corps is size, from holdovers like Vasquez Haynes (29 for 354) to newcomers like Don'yeh Patterson, a promising three-star recruit. If not an overly athletic group – let alone one that'll frighten defensive backs – Hawaii's receiver corps is not entirely inadequate. That there isn't a body capable of stretching the field might be the Warriors' Achilles heel.

The line is strongest in the middle, where junior center Ben Clarke is a lock for all-conference honors, but the group as a whole has not produced at a level commensurate to its experience. When all is said and done, Clarke may be the lone non-senior in the starting lineup: Sean Shigematsu and Frank Lloyd may bookend the line, joined inside by Kody Afusia and Dave Lefotu. Experience is a positive thing, by and large, but not when this same group has underwhelmed for the majority of its turn in the starting lineup. With little of note in reserve, it's on this group – nearly intact from last fall – to step forward and control the line of scrimmage.

Defense: Clune is an upgrade, true, but there's a reason new coordinators are given two-year deals: Hawaii's defense is at least one season away from rediscovering a stingy mentality. Of concern is the dearth of disruptors throughout the front seven; the Warriors will be unable to replace linebackers Brenden Daley and Art Laurel, two berserkers who would have fit wonderfully in Clune's 3-4 set. To help add an element of danger to the front seven, UH will use senior Beau Yap (37 tackles, 5.5 sacks) as both a traditional end and a rush outside linebacker. That's a role he'll fit wonderfully.

Hawaii even has a few useful pieces at linebacker. Yap will slot in on the outside, as should junior Jerrol Garcia-Williams (56 tackles). In the middle, UH can go big with the combination of TJ Taimatuia, Tevita Lataimua and UCLA transfer Jeremy Castro, a former four-star recruit. Clune's history with linebackers is also a positive for this group. But losing Yap to a role on the second level leaves the three-man front essentially useless, to be blunt, not to mention devoid of any linemen built to play in this system. Size might not be an issue – UH can always find a hefty tackle to block up the nose – but getting a consistent push from end Marcus Malepeai and a line ravaged by attrition looks like the defense's greatest concern. One name to watch is JUCO transfer Luke Shawley, who might be big enough to handle a down-lineman role in the 3-4.

Pressuring the quarterback would be nice, given how the Warriors look in the defensive backfield. The first problem: Hawaii loses both starting safeties. Another: Cornerback is unsteady. A third: The six defensive backs signed this winter don't arrive until the summer. So it'll be a work in progress, and a painful one at that. The top three at cornerback will be Dee Maggitt, Ne'Quan Phillips and Anthony Pierce, with Maggitt and Phillips returning to starting roles, while Clune and secondary coach Daronte' Jones could wait until August before attacking an unsettled safety competition. In total, Hawaii's defense may tread water – at best – while replacing four reliable starters and dealing with the transition to Clune's new system.

Special teams: Harding is particularly adept at pinning opponents deep inside their own territory, giving Hawaii's defense a major boost – not that the Warriors made the most of that advantage. The return game should be fine and the coverage teams steady enough to avoid any major letdowns.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH :

Quarterback: A new year brings a renewed quarterback competition. Chow played it close this spring, however, opting to wait until the middle portion of fall camp before anointing his starter – a job held ably last fall by former JUCO transfer Sean Schroeder. One reason? He's not playing with a full deck: Taylor Graham continues to battle injuries as Beau Reilly works his way toward eligibility, so the competition should grow even fiercer in fall camp. In addition, Hawaii continues to eyeball the potential for an FBS transfer, hoping that a high-profile backup opts to pack his bags for the islands in search of increased playing time. Think about it: Hawaii might have issues, but getting proper quarterback coaching isn't one, so the program remains an attractive landing spot for your tired, clipboard-holding backups yearning to play.

But let's stick with what we know. For one, Hawaii hasn't settled on a quarterback – though two stood out during the spring. One is sophomore Ikaika Woolsey, the perceived leader and enough of an athlete to work alongside Iosefa in a tweaked, zone-read-like running game. (Woolsey's touchdown run in a late-spring scrimmage showed how the pair can work in concert.) The second, Jeremy Higgins, showed enough poise throughout the spring to warrant a strong look at the lead backup spot, if not the starting role. So, in short: Woolsey leads today, Graham and Reilly could make it interesting in August and Higgins is at least a trustworthy reserve. Fall camp should be interesting.

GAME(S) TO WATCH :

Northern Iowa: Only a home date with this FCS contender could prevent Hawaii from a season-crippling, likely Chow era-ending 0-5 start. Why? Because it's sandwiched by games against Washington, Oregon State, Colorado and Rice, the latter pair on the road – three Pac-12 teams and the reigning Conference USA champion. Not since 1999 have the Warriors played three Pac-12 teams in the same season. This year's schedule features 13 regular-season games and little chance for an extended winning streak.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION :

In a nutshell: Don't be fooled by some competitive losses during Mountain West play: Hawaii might be able to hang around against conference competition, but this team hasn't a clue how to win games. That's only a partial indictment of this roster, which has talent in some spots but clearly lacks the horses on both sides of the ball to leap from the league's bottom into bowl contention. In large part, Hawaii's ineptitude can be tied to a lack of direction from the top down; the Warriors are stuck in quicksand, slowly but steadily sinking until the program gets swallowed under another double-digit-loss season.

There's a confidence issue. There are personnel issues, obviously. There's an identity crisis. Run or pass? Logic suggests Hawaii needs to run the ball with purpose to balance out an otherwise predictable offense. This is doubly true if Woolsey starts; he's an athlete, but he won't duplicate Schroeder's numbers from down the stretch of last season. Will the defense catch up? Clune is an ace hire, but the mere suggestion that Hawaii will quickly adapt to his system is laughable – it's going to be a miserable season defensively, particularly when you picture the combination of a paltry pass rush and a thin, unsettled secondary.

More than anything, there's a leadership issue. Here's the greatest fear: Hawaii opens the year with 20-point losses to Washington and Oregon State before really hitting rock-bottom, losing to Northern Iowa, and starts 0-5. With league dates against San Diego State, Nevada, Utah State and others still to come, it's all over by that point. One can only hope that another season in the cellar of the Mountain West would lead the school to alter course, showing the sort of commitment clearly lacking during the post-Jones era.

Dream season: Hawaii starts 1-4 but turns it on late, reaching five wins during the regular season and building some momentum for 2015.

Nightmare season: The Warriors beat only Northern Iowa at home and finish 1-12. Chow returns for the 2015 season.

UP NEXT :

Who's No. 122? This team allowed more points in the final three games of 2013 than it scored all season.