College Football Countdown | No. 125: Georgia State
The third loss to a Football Championship Subdivision program in five weeks made it official: Georgia State was not quite ready for the leap to college football's highest level.
Not to suggest that GSU was even ready for the FCS. The Panthers went 1-10 in 2012, the program's third season of overall existence and second year on the FCS ranks, losing nine games by 21 or more points and setting a low bar for its permanent move to the Sun Belt Conference. Dating back to the start of 2012, GSU has gone 1-12 against the FCS and 0-10 against the FBS.
And this comes as no surprise. Unlike other newly minted Football Bowl Subdivision programs – like South Alabama, Texas State, UTSA and Western Kentucky – GSU seemed built on the ricketiest of foundations, without the sort of steady development and careful recruiting needed to quickly transform from nothingness to FCS to competitiveness on the tallest stage.
Hence the school's decision to hire ex-Indiana State coach Trent Miles, a program-builder of the strongest order. Think GSU had it rough? Miles took over an Indiana State program mired in a 1-31 stretch – one that played in the rowdiest league in the FCS – and after two down years had the Sycamores on the road to three winning seasons in a row.
GSU was bad; ISU was worse. So it's with patience and understanding that Georgia State hired Miles, knowing it would get worse before it got better, knowing that a program without any history could happily deal with the price tag of a humbling FBS debut. Additional patience will be needed in 2014.
LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION :
Well, it's not going to be easy. What should you expect? Losses, many of 'em, and a last-place finish in the nation's weakest league. You should also expect improvement as the year wears on and plenty of signals that Georgia State hired the right man to get this program moving forward.
2013 RECAP :
In a nutshell: Positives – and negatives, of course – can be found in every corner. Here's one: Georgia State grew stronger as the season went on, a terrific omen moving forward to 2014 and beyond. Another: The Panthers were competitive against some of the Sun Belt's best, losing by a touchdown or less to Troy, Texas State and Arkansas State. A third: Georgia State was able to move the ball at least somewhat effectively against Sun Belt competition, with an ability to push bodies against FBS competition a significant question mark heading into last fall. Then again, GSU did lose three games to teams from the FCS: Samford, Chattanooga and Jacksonville State.
High point: A 35-33 road loss to Arkansas State, the Sun Belt co-champions. It's safe to say the Panthers outplayed ASU, outgaining the Red Wolves' offense and playing terrific defense on third down yet dooming themselves with multiple turnovers. It was the sort of loss GSU carried into the offseason.
Low point: The three defeats to FCS teams. Not necessarily embarrassing, but humbling.
Tidbit: Georgia State was one of three Sun Belt teams since 2002 to go winless, joining Western Kentucky in 2009 and Florida International in 2006.
ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST :
Florida Panthers' first-round draft picks
1. Rob Niedermayer
2. Ed Jovanski
3. Jay Bouwmeester
4. Radek Dvorak
5. Alexsander Barkov
PLAYERS TO WATCH :
Offense: It didn't take long for Miles to name a new starting quarterback. Before the end of spring drills, it was clear that JUCO transfer Nick Arbuckle had taken the reins from ex-starter Ronnie Bell, who threw 15 touchdowns last fall but struggled with accuracy and consistency. At the same time, Miles was pleased with the on-field development from both quarterbacks during the spring, which bodes well for GSU's depth under center come August. Is Arbuckle assured of the starting job? Well, look for the Panthers to reopen the competition in the fall, adding in newcomer Emiere Scaife, but don't look for Arbuckle to relinquish his lead. In giving Arbuckle the top spot coming out of the spring, Miles allowed the new face to assume a leadership position during offseason conditioning. Bell is there in reserve, but it's clear that Miles viewed quarterback as an area that needed an influx of talent on the recruiting trail.
While dealing with a new quarterback, Miles and offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski must address a receiver corps dinged badly by the departure of the greatest player in school history in Albert Wilson – and let's remember that GSU is only four years old, of course. In terms of explosiveness, reliability and consistency, GSU returns no receiver capable of filling Wilson's shoes. But the Panthers have promising talent in sophomore Robert Davis (44 receptions for 711 yards), though it'll be interesting to see if Davis can break coverage without Wilson drawing attention from multiple defensive backs. With Lynquez Blair joining Davis at receiver and Joel Ruiz and Keith Rucker at tight end, GSU can slowly break a slew of freshmen – Todd Boyd, Tevish Clark and others – into the mix offensively in August.
The Panthers' returning backfield lacks any degree of explosiveness, which could mean an immediate role for incoming recruits Michael Harrison and Krysten Hammon – two perceived speedsters with the potential to slot into a change-of-pace role. But the running game will begin with Kyler Neal (101 yards), Gerald Howse and Duvall Smith, the latter the most impressive back during spring drills. But more so than any positional grouping on this side of the ball, look for the backfield to feature a heated competition once the Panthers return to the field in August.
Defense: It's hard to view the Panthers' defense as anything but one of the weakest in college football. One reason is inexperience: GSU's group is loaded with sophomores, even if the majority played significant snaps in either reserve or starting roles in 2013. At the same time, the defense lacks a playmaker, is still too small to stop the run, is clueless on the pass rush and has no proven defensive backs capable of running with the Sun Belt's better passing games. So it could be another long year, even as the offense seems poised to move a step forward behind Arbuckle and an improved front five.
The defensive line is a major concern. The positive, as noted, is that last year's freshmen are now sophomores – projected starters like ends Shawayne Lawrence and Tevin Jones and nose guard Jalen Lawrence, for example. It's safe to assume growth from this threesome; this is particularly true of Shawayne Lawrence, the only down linemen with the ability to get to the quarterback. Is there depth? There's nothing. Even if the threesome delivers, any injuries would doom GSU to another pitiful season stopping the run.
COUNTDOWN:No. 128 | No. 127 | No. 126
Another handful-plus of underclassmen litter the two-deep at linebacker and the defensive backfield. At linebacker, at least, this defense can tout bodies: GSU has already identified a starting quartet – Mackendy Cheridor and newcomer Sheldon Wynn on the outside, Joe Peterson (103 tackles) and converted fullback Sean Jeppesen in the middle – and can utilize another three or four backups with some degree of confidence. Wynn, a linebacker in a safety's body, could be a nice addition to a defense short on athleticism across the board.
Depth at linebacker had a positive impact on the secondary. Due the number of options on the second level, GSU was able to move Tarris Batiste to safety, his natural position – and one where the Panthers needed help. But to say that Batiste is a tenor-changing addition misses the forest for the trees: GSU was so inept against the pass last fall that it'll take another year of recruiting and development before this secondary can even sniff a top-half finish in the Sun Belt, and with sophomores set for major roles, it'll be another bumpy season. The only hope is that these sophomores – players like LaDarion Young, Myles Morris and Trent Hill – make substantial improvements during the offseason while the staff blends in a number of JUCO transfers. While the newcomers will play, this is a dangerous combination.
Special teams: The kicking game is solid to above-average, especially if kicker Will Lutz can maintain his accuracy on makeable field goals. Punter Will Hubbard gets a workout, as you might expect, but he could end up earning all-conference honors. But Wilson leaves a huge void in the return game; GSU's offense could use the benefit of a few added yards on punt and kickoff returns.
POSITION(S) TO WATCH :
Offensive line: With four starters gone from one of the worst lines in the country, GSU has the opportunity to hit restart up front – often a bad thing, but in the Panthers' case a positive. Only one starter, senior left guard A.J. Kaplan, returns to a new-look line defined by recent JUCO additions. Three newcomers signed this winter have already assumed starting jobs: Mike Ivory at left tackle, Taylor Evans at center and Steve Wolgamott at right tackle. Boom or bust, perhaps, since JUCO transfers will give an offense a dose of experience at the cost of unfamiliarity with the system. The fifth starter, right guard Alex Stoehr, signed in 2012 but didn't enroll until the spring. Let's look at two major positives: GSU's new line can't be any worse than last year's version, and the group as a whole is noticeably larger. But it'll need to blend quickly, not to mention remain upright – because there's zero depth and zero experience in reserve, meaning another round of injuries and attrition will be a death kneel for this offense and its new quarterback.
GAME(S) TO WATCH :
New Mexico State: Assuming GSU knocks off Abilene Christian in the opener, topping New Mexico State a week later could set it up for a solid second season in the Sun Belt. But the schedule is a beast: GSU takes on Air Force, Washington and Clemson in out-of-conference play, and must deal with Troy, Louisiana-Lafayette and Troy on the road.
SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION :
In a nutshell: It's clear that Georgia State is making progress. Look at the second half of last season, for example, when the Panthers hung tight with a number of Sun Belt teams; no wins, but more competitive play. There's also a younger roster loaded with enough underclassmen to foresee steady development during the course of the next two seasons, perhaps leaving GSU in striking distance of bowl play in 2016 – a push to the postseason that would follow Miles' similar path at Indiana State. This year's roster seems stronger in some areas, in fact, like quarterback, offensive line and linebacker, so even without several contributors the Panthers seem capable of carrying last year's finish into 2014.
But there's still hard work to be done. Even if a perceived upgrade under center, Arbuckle will hit a learning curve in his transition to the FBS – especially with Air Force, Washington and Louisiana-Lafayette coming in the first half. The backfield is unsettled; at worst, it's a mess. The receiver corps lacks playmakers outside of Davis, and even the sophomore must prove himself without Wilson drawing attention. The offensive line is bigger but still unproven. Defensively, the front three lacks punch and the secondary, like the offensive backfield, needs to be addressed in August. It's clear that GSU's best grouping is linebacker, whether in terms of a starting group or depth. But a strength on the second level would be negated by sieve-like play up front and sloppy coverage on the back end.
I'll say this: Georgia State is not the worst team in the country in 2014. Given where this began, what we saw last year and what the Panthers bring into the fall, this is a positive sign for the future. It would be nice to net a win or two, but let's be patient through another year of development while the staff cobbles together a stronger unit. GSU might win more than two games – perhaps getting the better of two FBS newcomers – but this team is not ready to move out of the Sun Belt's bottom third.
Dream season: Georgia State opens 2-0 and wins another pair against Sun Belt competition – let's say Georgia Southern and Appalachian State – to finish 4-8.
Nightmare season: Another winless season.
UP NEXT :
Who's No. 124? This university's golf coach once worked at a conference and in-state rival.