Californians brace for year of 'mega-drought'

BROOKTRAILS TOWNSHIP, Calif. — One hundred days. That's about how much time this California community of 3,500 people has until it runs out of water, assuming no rain, local and state officials say.

Last month, the township ordered households to restrict water use to 110 gallons a day.

For Anthony Willcutt's family, that means showers every other day for everyone but 17-year-old Jordan. Willcutt records the family's daily water use on a chart by his bedside. Water that would normally disappear down the drain goes instead into 5-gallon jugs stored around the house in case the water does run out.

"It's scary," says Willcutt, a lifelong resident.

A foreboding is seeping across the state as Californians gaze on rain-starved reservoirs, parched pastures and arid orchards at the start of what could be the worst year of drought since the mid-1970s. Most at risk is the Golden State's $45 billion-a-year agriculture industry, producer of nearly half of U.S.-grown fruits, nuts and vegetables. Farmers plan to plant fewer acres and some farmworkers are leaving for greener fields. Other financial effects are piling up. Ranchers are thinning cattle herds. Ski resorts have laid off workers. The state's Forestry Department says forest fire calls were up sixfold last month from past Januarys.

Gov. Jerry Brown warns 2014 could bring a "mega-drought" after last year saw only 7.48 inches of rain — the lowest amount in 119 years of record keeping. He's declared an emergency and asked Californians to voluntarily reduce water use by 20%. Mandatory residential or business cuts of 20% to 50% are in place for almost a dozen communities. The California Department of Public Health says 17 rural communities, including Brooktrails, may face severe water shortages in 60 to 100 days.The state said Friday that, for the first time in 54 years, it won't release water from reservoirs to 29 water agencies serving 25 million people, as it normally does.

"The whole state is in crisis mode ... but there will be serious pockets of pain," says Timothy Quinn, executive director of the Association of California Water Agencies.

At the same time, areas with large amounts of stored water stand to face less hardship, this year anyway.

Southern California, for instance, has enough water in storage to get through this year and into next without mandatory cutbacks, says Bob Muir, spokesman for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, a water wholesaler to others serving 19 million people. Still, the district has asked users for voluntary 20% cuts.

Not only does the region have multiple sources of water, snowpack from the Sierra Nevada mountains, Colorado River water, rainfall and groundwater, but the district has increased water storage by 1,300% since 1980, Muir says.

The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission has asked for 10% voluntary cuts but said mandatory ones may come if dry conditions persist.

The situation is more serious for rural areas such as Brooktrails, which relies on rainfall that feeds into two reservoirs.

The township, which normally gets 60 inches of rain a year, received just 5 inches last year. Its water storage is at 20% of normal, says Brooktrails General Manager Denise Rose.

In nearby Willits, pop. 5,000, the city had 89 days of water as of last week, assuming no major rain or forest fires, says City Manager Adrienne Moore. It's set a 150-gallon-a-day limit for households, down from the normal 250 and required businesses to cut 35%. It, too, relies on rainfall that feeds reservoirs. A front door sign on Restaurant El Mexicano says, "Water served upon request." Down the street, a sign outside a health food store recently urged passersby to "visualize rain."

"It's that bad," says Tony Madrigal, El Mexicano owner.

There is still time for more winter rains. California gets 75% of its precipitation from November to March. A modest storm moved through parts of the state last week and Sunday. But the state has far to go.

At the end of January, California's 150 reservoirs were at about 65% of average levels, says Maury Roos, state hydrologist. The water content in the Sierra snowpack, which provides a third of California's water, is 12% of normal.

BROWN PASTURES, RISING HAY PRICES

Rancher Kevin Kester, 58, of Paso Robles plans month to month. His parched land no longer grows enough grass for his cattle to eat. He's bought hay to feed cattle since November. Normally, he doesn't buy any. Alfalfa prices in his area have soared 10% in recent weeks. Kester cut his herd by 20% and may sell them all next month unless it rains enough.

"Every day, more people are selling," Kester says.

Thousands of San Joaquin Valley growers will probably get none of their regular allocations of water from state and federal systems, says Tom Nassif, CEO of the Western Growers Association. That'll leave them to rely more on groundwater. In the drought in 2009, many growers got allocations of 10% to 20% of normal, he says.

Less water will cause farmers to idle 500,000 acres of irrigated land, about 6% of the state's total, says Mike Wade, executive director of the California Farm Water Coalition.

That doesn't necessarily spell catastrophe for California's economy. Idle acreage will cost California agriculture an estimated $1.7 billion in lost production and an overall hit of $5 billion to the state's $2 trillion economy, according to the coalition.

"It's not like we'll fall into a recession as a state," because of the agricultural impacts of the drought," says Dan Sumner, an agricultural economist at the University of California-Davis.

The drought's effects on the nation's grocery bills may be slight. This year, national food and beverage prices are likely to rise just 0.4%. California's drought "might lift it up a little bit," says U.S. economist Chris Christopher of IHS Global Insight.

Many farmers will idle cotton, wheat and corn crops first, keep tree crops watered or shift crop production to other areas, says Jeffrey Michael, economics forecaster at the University of the Pacific in Stockton. Fewer almond orchards may be planted, but the impact won't be felt for years, Sumner says. Prices for melons and processing tomatoes could be affected, he says.

For fruit and nut growers, a prolonged drought can mean financial ruin. If trees die, it takes five to seven years to replace them.

Mark Borba of Huron, Calif., has farmed for 42 years and never seen water so scarce. He grows tomatoes, garlic, onions, lettuce, melons and almonds on 11,000 irrigated acres. He expects to idle a third of his land this year. He figures his almond orchards to be a $12,000-an-acre investment. He recently spent $800,000 on a well to help keep 300 acres alive.

"You do the math. ... Does that make sense? ... No. But it's a slower death," he says.

Fewer crops will mean lost jobs for farmworkers.

During the drought in 2009, the San Joaquin Valley lost an estimated 6,000 agriculture jobs, out of 200,000, Michael says. More agriculture-related jobs could be lost this year statewide, he says.

"Without any water, there are no jobs," says Baldomero Hernandez, principal of Westside Elementary in rural Fresno County. Most of his students belong to farmworker families. The school loses a few students every week as families move to look for work. "I'm hoping I don't have to lay off teachers," Hernandez says. The drought has "been devastating for a lot of our families."

Other pieces of the California economy will take a big hit.

The number of visitors to Tahoe region ski resorts is expected to fall to half of normal, says Bob Roberts, CEO of the California Ski Industry Association.

Less snowpack and rain also pose environmental challenges.

Last month, the California Department of Forestry responded to more than 400 fires vs. an average of 69 in the past five Januarys, says Ken Pimlott, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection director.

In December and January, air pollution levels surpassed federal air quality standards on 47 days in the San Joaquin Valley, twice as many as last year at the same time, says Karen Magliano, assistant division chief for the California Air Resources Board.

Last week, the state closed some streams and rivers to fishing to protect steelhead and salmon suffering from low flow conditions. The closures affect less than 5% of the state's fishable rivers and streams, but more are possible should dry conditions persist, says Stafford Lehr, fisheries branch chief for the California Department of Fish and Wildlife.

GETTING USED TO MAKING DO

Some businesses and consumers can adapt to drought conditions.

In Willits, car wash owner Dennis Craighead shut down his automatic washer to conserve water. Customers wash by hand. He hopes to dig an underground well at a cost of $10,000.

In addition to conservation, Willits is spending $800,000 to get water from two underground wells used for agriculture. That could help Brooktrails Township, too. A worst case scenario? "We'd have to truck water in," City Manager Moore says.

"We've had serious conversations … about where we would go," should the water run out, says retiree Jim Harden, who's lived in Willits since the mid-1970s. He and his wife, Marilyn, have let their yard "just die," he says.

The Willcutts have surprised themselves.

Jordan has gone from 25-minute showers to four-minute ones. Anthony, 44, a sheet metal worker, wears his pants two or three times before washing. Stephanie, 40, captures cold tap water – while waiting for the hot – to put on indoor plants. Austin, 13, concedes some of his shower time to his sister.

Their water use dropped from 220 gallons a day to 66-96 gallons a day.

"We want to do our part," Anthony says.

Contributing: Doyle Rice