Bold prediction: Cubs won't repeat as World Series champions
As the 2017 Major League Baseball season begins, USA TODAY Sports' baseball staff lays out its bold predictions for the six months ahead:
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Barring some unforeseen wave of injuries, we all know the Chicago Cubs will be good.
Minus No. 5 starter Jason Hammel, they have the core of their rotation back in Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and John Lackey. They lost outfielder Dexter Fowler and closer Aroldis Chapman to free agency and traded outfielder Jorge Soler to the Kansas City Royals. But they have Kyle Schwarber, Jon Jay and Albert Almora Jr., all decent to above-average hitters, to help fill in the outfield, and they got World Series-winning closer Wade Davis for Soler.
They have made the 108-year journey to the top of the postseason mountain and know what it takes to do it. But, as they can attest after a seven-game World Series they almost lost to the Cleveland Indians, winning it all is awfully hard to do.
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There is a little more doubt surrounding the Cubs this season than there was entering last year’s postseason. They lost Fowler, their spark plug of a leadoff hitter and a superb defender, to the rival St. Louis Cardinals. Schwarber is a defensive liability but must play if the Cubs want to use his booming bat. Jay and Almora should help offset a lot of the lost defense from Fowler in center field, but neither is the all-around offensive player Fowler is.
And despite his clubhouse speech that propelled the Cubs after a Game 7 rain delay in Cleveland, right-fielder Jason Heyward had a miserable first season in Chicago. He hit .230 with a .306 on-base percentage, .325 slugging percentage and 11 steals (down from 23 the season before). It’s misleading to put too much stock in spring training stats, but there would be more optimism about a Heyward rebound if his spring figures weren’t .152/.264/.326 with zero steals entering the final week.
Chicago can lean on its sturdy rotation, which is anchored by Hendricks, who finished third in the National League Cy Young Award race. But his ERA fell from 3.95 to 2.13 last season. Can he have another season similar to 2016 without overpowering velocity?
We also can’t dismiss the loss of Chapman, who recorded a 2 2/3-inning save in Game 5 of the World Series. Davis, the Cubs’ new closer, dealt with a forearm strain that kept him out for a month and a half last season.
The Cubs will be right in the mix, likely to pile up wins against inferior opponents, but there are so many factors at play when the postseason begins. It is often the team that is hottest that wins.
There also has not been a repeat World Series champion since the 1999 and 2000 New York Yankees. In fact, only three teams (the 2014 and 2015 Kansas City Royals, 2010 and 2011 Texas Rangers and 2008 and 2009 Philadelphia Phillies) have even returned to the World Series since the 2000-2001 Yankees.
Here’s saying the Cubs won’t join that select group.
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