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Fantasy baseball experts look to crack the code at Tout Wars

Steve Gardner
USA TODAY Sports

NEW YORK -- One Shack burger and a shake down, two drafts to go.

The AL Tout Wars participants take their cues from auctioneer and league founder Ron Shandler at Rock and Reilly's pub in New York.

Although the math isn't quite that simple, it's Tout Wars weekend in the shadow of Madison Square Garden -- where college hoops fans kept the party going late into the night on Friday.

Meanwhile, the fantasy baseball has its own selection show going on with the Tout Wars head-to-head and AL-only auctions already in the books, the mixed auction in progress, and the NL-only auction (which I'll be doing) on Sunday morning.

TOUT WARS ROSTERS:Live spreadsheet for all leagues

The highlight so far has to be the extreme stars-and-scrubs team Fangraphs' Paul Sporer put together in the head-to-head league.

What made the strategy so effective wasn't the stars he rostered -- but the "scubs." Eric Thames for $5. Javier Baez for $5. Aledmys Diaz for $3.

Those are some solid players. And on the pitching side: Francisco Liriano, Dylan Bundy, Mike Foltynewicz and closer Ryan Madson all for a buck.

In the H2H format, which puts a premium on compiling counting stats, Sporer is going to have a juggernaut if he manages his pitching staff smartly. (Quality starts and K/9 are among the scoring categories.)

Trout back on top

In the AL-only league, things were a little more "normal," but several players went for premium prices.

After taking a back seat to Jose Altuve as the most expensive player in AL LABR three weeks ago, Mike Trout regained his position at the top of the heap here at AL Tout Wars. This is due in part to the fact that Tout uses on-base percentage instead of batting average as one of its five hitting categories -- and Trout led the majors last season with a .441 OBP.

The reigning AL MVP sold for $47 to Fangraphs' Mike Podhorzer. Altuve wasn't far behind at $45 with Mookie Betts at $40 and Josh Donaldson at $38.

Among the pitchers, the trio of Corey Kluber ($29), Yu Darvish ($28) and Chris Sale ($27) led the way, just as they did in AL LABR.

In the mixed auction league, the Sporer Strategy (I'm trademarking that right now) seems to have spread like wildfire. Seemingly every one of the top players topped the $30 mark with Trout selling for $51 and Paul Goldschmidt going for $50. The top pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, was a mere $44.

Sunday fun day

The days of bargain-hunting on top players may have already ended this weekend, so I'm not expecting to get any of my favorite stars for less than full price.

I have some thoughts about how I'll approach the NL-only draft -- and while I don't want to reveal too much, there are some general things to keep in mind. (If you're really interested, I go into a little bit more detail at the tail end of this week's podcast.)

-- It’s an on-base percentage league so players who walk a lot get a nice bump in value.

Walk rate leaders, 2016 (with OBP)

Bryce Harper    17.2%    .373
Joey Votto        16.0%    .434
Brandon Belt        15.9%    .394
Paul Goldschmidt    15.6%    .411
Ben Zobrist        15.2%    .386

As I've said before, I believe Harper is going to have a monster season and if I can't get a share of him in any of my fantasy leagues, I want to get a share of that Nats offense in some form. (I bought Daniel Murphy for $29 in NL LABR.)

Also among the top eight are two more first basemen -- Matt Carpenter and Freddie Freeman. That's a position where I want to get a high-OBP, high-power guy.

-- In terms of speed, Baseball HQ has five National Leaguers projected for 40 or more stolen bases and three more in the 30s. That's way more than there are in the AL, so steals aren't as high of a priority -- especially since there are a few sneaky speed sources who should be available late.

-- There seems to be a decent amount of depth in the outfield and at second base, so I don't plan to reach at either of those spots.

-- Third base, on the other hand, looks much thinner -- especially after elites Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado are off the board.

-- I see only three lock-down closers in the entire NL: Kenley Jansen, Mark Melancon and Seung-Hwan Oh. That's it. Every other bullpen involves at least some speculation. If I don't get one of those top three, I'm laying low for a late bargain or two. Or possibly just punting saves.

I'll post my full roster after the draft is done on Sunday. We'll see how well I read the market.

UPDATE: Here's my roster. Not terribly thrilled with how it turned out.

C Cameron Rupp $10
C Tom Murphy $4
1B Brandon Belt $26
2B Kolten Wong $11
SS Trevor Story $26
3B Anthony Rendon $24
MI Dilson Herrera $1
CI Adonis Garcia $8
OF Carlos Gonzalez $25
OF Ender Inciarte $18
OF David Dahl $14
OF Nick Markakis $10
UT Jarrett Parker $6
SW Roman Quinn $3

SP Jon Lester $23 
SP Matt Harvey $10
SP Taijuan Walker $9
SP Adam Wainwright $5
SP Dan Straily $4
P Carl Edwards Jr. $1
P Kyle Barraclough $3
RP A.J. Ramos $13
RP Greg Holland $6

Reserves: Jesus Aguilar, Tyler Chatwood, David Wright, Franklin Gutierrez

The fallout

-- The top first basemen all went for more than I felt I could afford to pay: Paul Goldschmidt for $40, Joey Votto for $40, Freddie Freeman for $39. I was in until the end on Votto and Freeman. Anthony Rizzo inexplicably went for $32. Can't figure out how that happened ...

-- I wasn't planning on getting Carlos Gonzalez, but he seemed to be a good value early in the draft. Maybe he gets dinged a bit in OBP leagues, but $25 is solid.

-- I drafted more injured players than I would have preferred. David Dahl is a great value at $14 if he returns from the stress reaction in his ribs fairly soon and can play to the level he showed last season. Matt Harvey is looking solid after his most recent spring performance -- one in which he was hitting 97 mph on the radar gun. Tom Murphy is expected back in mid- to late April from a hairline fracture in his forearm. Those three may be the key to my team's success, but we won't know for another month or so if I have a shot.

-- With CarGo, Dahl and Murphy, plus reliever Greg Holland and reserve pitcher Tyler Chatwood, it looks like I'll be watching plenty of Rockies games this season.

-- I could be in trouble in the speed department after missing out on the top guys. Ender Inciarte is my only true speedster -- although Roman Quinn could be a valuable cog if he gets a decent amount of playing time.

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