College basketball's super early preseason top 25 teams for the 2017-18 season
The One Shining Moments from the 2016-17 season and the madness of this year's NCAA tournament are officially in the books, which means it's time to put the image of North Carolina cutting down the net in the rearview mirror and turn our focus to the 2017-18 season.
Events of the offseason — players testing the NBA waters, the cycling of coaches and transfers through the landscape and the impact of more incoming freshmen choosing teams — are sure to shake things up. But for now, here's USA TODAY Sports' instant look at the way-too-early top 25 for next season.
Note: A rule change put into place last year allows players to declare for the draft, participate in the NBA combine and one NBA team tryout. As long as they don't hire an agent, they can return to school. Forecasts are based o n assumptions of players leaving or returning regardless of declaring. Records are from 2016-17. 247 Sports was used to reference recruiting rankings. Jason Jordan of USA TODAY High School Sports graded the recruiting classes.
1. Arizona (32-5 in 2016-17)
Projected lottery pick Lauri Markkanen is gone to the NBA, and Kobi Simmons might leave, too. But much of Arizona’s prospects depends on the NBA decision of leading scorer Allonzo Trier, a projected second-round pick who likely will consider his pro options without an agent. Rawle Alkins (10.9 points per game) had a strong freshman season and is poised for a big sophomore year if he bypasses the NBA. The return of Dusan Ristic and Chance Comanche alongside point guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright should give coach Sean Miller an established core. Miller hauled in a top-three recruiting class — headlined by 7-footer DeAndre Ayton, the country’s No. 1 prospect, according to 247 Sports — that will keep the Wildcats contending.
► Recruiting class: A+
2. Duke (28-9)
Jayson Tatum is a lottery pick, Harry Giles is turning pro and Amile Jefferson is graduating, but much depends on whether guards Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen decide to leave for the NBA. Both are first-round projections on mock draft boards, with Kennard much higher coming off an All-American season. Allen could bolster his draft stock with another season to help wash away a controversy-plagued one for the former player of the year candidate. His role would be uncertain on a revamped roster, as coach Mike Krzyzewski has hauled in another elite recruiting class, headlined by top-10 freshmen Wendell Carter and Gary Trent Jr. Also, Frank Jackson could blossom as a sophomore, similar to what Kennard did this season.
► Recruiting class: A+
3. Kentucky (32-6)
Assuming John Calipari’s three elite freshmen leave as expected — De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are projected top-10 picks, and Bam Adebayo is a late first-round projection — Kentucky will be looking at another rebuilding project. But more talent is on the way. The Wildcats welcome three elite big men in Nick Richards, P.J. Washington and Jarred Vanderbilt to make for a fearsome frontcourt, while Quade Green was the third-best point guard prospect. Isaiah Briscoe (12.1 ppg, 4.6 assists per game, 4.0 rebounds per game) and his veteran presence would bode well for ushering in another batch of teenagers should he decide to stay another season.
► Recruiting class: A+
4. Florida (27-9)
Coach Mike White stepped out of Billy Donovan’s shadow by steering the Gators to the Elite Eight in his first NCAA tournament as a coach, and he’ll have a group poised to flourish again next season. Southeastern Conference Sixth Man of the Year Canyon Barry and starting point guard Kasey Hill are gone, but Florida figures to have a cast of key returnees to mesh with a top-10 recruiting class. Guard KeVaughn Allen, who had 35 points against Wisconsin in the Sweet 16, will be the key force. Devin Robinson (11.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg) will explore the NBA waters without an agent, but his return would give the Gators their most versatile weapon. Big man John Egbunu was injured in early February and his expected return will be vital. Same with buzzer-beater star Chris Chiozza, who will take on a larger role.
► Recruiting class: B+
5. Kansas (31-5)
Devonte’ Graham is pondering the NBA, national player of the year Frank Mason III is graduating and high-flying freshman Josh Jackson is NBA-bound. LaGerald Vick (7.4 ppg) and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (9.8 ppg) will see bigger roles, but the key guy is Mississippi State transfer Malik Newman. The 6-4 guard averaged 11.3 points a game for the Bulldogs, but will undoubtedly be better after practicing with Kansas’s nation-leading backcourt this season. Arizona State transfer Sam Cunliffe will be eligible in midseason, too. Udoka Azubuike, a 7-0 sophomore who had a season-ending wrist injury, could be a force in 2017-18. Self’s recruiting class is so-so right now, with top-20 forward Billy Preston the top name. But the Jayhawks are known to make a late splash with recruits.
► Recruiting class: C
6. Xavier (24-14)
Trevon Bluiett (18.5 ppg) has entered his name in the draft but won’t hire an agent. The explosive guard could return, considering he’s projected to go late in the second round. If he stays, that would be huge for coach Chris Mack. The top-10 recruiting class is led by freshman point guard Paul Scruggs, who will see time right away with Edmond Sumner leaving for the NBA. Mainstay J.P. Macura (14.4 ppg) also is back. After an up-and-down season that concluded with a surprising Elite Eight finish, expect Xavier to be much more consistent next season.
► Recruiting class: B+
7. UCLA (31-5)
UCLA: How do you replace freshman of the year Lonzo Ball and leading scorer T.J. Leaf? With another top-notch recruiting class. Steve Alford also has to replace his hot-shooting son, Bryce, and another graduate in Isaac Hamilton. Sixth man Aaron Holiday (12.3 ppg) and big man Thomas Welsh (10.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg) are back to help welcome a star-studded freshman class fueled by small forward Kris Wilkes and point guard Jaylen Hands.
► Recruiting class: A+
8. Wichita State (31-5)
Virtually everyone is back from a 31-win team that had Kentucky on the ropes with a Sweet 16 trip on the line. In that game, freshman Landry Shamet showed flashes of what’s to come while going up against Kentucky’s NBA-bound freshmen. With a year under his belt running the point, Shamet should transform into an All-American-caliber player. Leading scorer Markis McDuffie, big men Darral Willis Jr. and Shaquille Morris, sharpshooter Conner Frankamp and utility man Zach Brown all return for an ambitious season. It’s uncertain whether Wichita State will be playing in the Missouri Valley or American Athlete Conference, but either way this team is top-10 good right off the bat.
► Recruiting class: D
9. North Carolina (33-7)
Odds are ACC player of the year Justin Jackson will leave for the NBA, joining Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks as key departures. Tony Bradley could leave early as well. That leaves Joel Berry II, the team's sharpshooting point guard, as the key returnee. Kenny Williams, Theo Pinson and Luke Maye will take on larger roles alongside Roy Williams’ top-30 recruiting class. Jalek Felton, a 6-3 five-star 2-guard and the nephew of former Tar Heels star Raymond Felton, is the best of that bunch.
► Recruiting class: C
10. Louisville (25-9)
It’s uncertain if ultra-athletic guard Donovan Mitchell, who broke out as a sophomore to become an all-Atlantic Coast Conference player, will head to the NBA or come back to further boost his stock. Even if he doesn’t return, the Cardinals bring back six of their top eight scorers and coach Rick Pitino recruited a top-10 class. In that light, expect five-star freshman Malik Williams to make an immediate impact. The 7-footer will replace Mangok Mathiang, who graduated, in the paint. Point guard Quentin Snider and wing Deng Adel head the key list of surefire returnees.
► Recruiting class: A
11. Southern California
USC’s surprise NCAA tournament run — beating Providence at Dayton and upsetting SMU in the first round — could be a sign of much more to come, especially if blossoming talents Bennie Boatwright (team-leading 15.1 points a game) and Chimezie Metu (28 points in a tourney loss to Baylor) decide to return instead of going pro. The 6-10 and 6-11 forwards are matchup nightmares. Jordan McLaughlin and Elijah Stewart are locks to stay, and Duke transfer Derryck Thornton will join a loaded roster that includes Louisville transfer Shaqquan Aaron. Then factor in a top-20 recruiting class by coach Andy Enfield and the future looks all the more promising for a team that was hanging on the NCAA tournament bubble in February.
► Recruiting class: B
12. Oregon
Chris Boucher and Dylan Ennis are gone to graduation, while Dillon Brooks and Jordan Bell are likely to capitalize on their Final Four run by giving the NBA their best shot. But that still leaves Mr. March, Tyler Dorsey, who was one of the most impressive players in the NCAA tournament and showed he can lead a team. This tournament also revealed what a fantastic coach Dana Altman is, as his strategies helped the Ducks knock off two hot teams in Kansas and Michigan. Altman has a top-20 recruiting class, led by five-star 6-7 wing Troy Brown Jr., another nightmare-matchup player. Look for freshman point guard Payton Pritchard to take a nice leap.
► Recruiting class: B+
13. West Virginia
Though Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State figure to take a slide with their key departures, the Mountaineers will likely be Kansas’ top challenger in trying to end a 13-season Big 12 title streak. Coach Bob Huggins’ “Press Virginia” roster loses Nathan Adrian and Tarik Phillip, but brings back its top two scorers in Jevon Carter (13.5 ppg) and Esa Ahmad (11.3 ppg). Daxter Miles Jr. also returns for the Mountaineers, while freshmen Lamont West and Sagaba Konate should see more time.
► Recruiting class: D
14. Notre Dame
Odds are Charles Barkley clone Bonzie Colson returns to South Bend for one more season and he’ll be a national player of the year candidate if he doesn’t go to the NBA. He averaged 17.8 points and 10.1 rebounds a game last season. Also returning is point guard Matt Farrell (14.1 ppg, 5.4 apg), who coach Mike Brey said is better than Bobby Hurley. Those two will make the Irish dangerous.
► Recruiting class: C
15. Indiana
New coach Archie Miller is inheriting a talented roster that underachieved last season, starting with explosive scorer James Blackmon Jr. (17.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg), who will try for the NBA but not hire an agent. Preseason All-American big man Thomas Bryant was unimpressive in 2016-17 and might hold off on the NBA again to boost his stock. OG Anunoby is most likely to leave for the NBA. That leaves a cast of veterans behind Robert Johnson (12.8 ppg), Josh Newkirk (9.0 ppg) and Juwan Morgan (7.7 ppg). Miller was known at Dayton for getting the most out of his players and having them ready to peak in March. The Hoosiers’ best recruit is four-star forward Justin Smith, who will likely see time right away.
►Recruiting class: B
16. Michigan State
Tom Izzo took one of his youngest, most inexperienced teams to the NCAA tournament. They’ll be grown up in 2017-18. Leading scorer Miles Bridges is NBA-bound but freshmen-turning-sophomores Nick Ward, Joshua Langford and Cassius Winston have a season of experience. And look for top-20 freshman Jaren Jackson to fill Bridges’ place.
► Recruiting class: B+
17. Minnesota
Big Ten coach of the year Richard Pitino piloted his team to a surprisingly strong 24-10 record. Electrifying guard Nate Mason (15.2 ppg, 5.0 apg) has the chops to be Big Ten player of the year and he’ll be joined by most of the returning nucleus, including upstart forward Amir Coffey. Big man Reggie Lynch (8.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.5 bpg) also returns to give Minnesota a backbone.
18. Alabama
Despite two seasons without an NCAA tournament berth, Avery Johnson has been as impressive as any coach recruiting, and he has a his top-four class for 2017. The Crimson Tide should hit their stride with five-star recruits Collin Sexton and John Petty joining a team headed by sophomores Braxton Key and Dazon Ingram.
► Recruiting class: A+
19. Gonzaga
It’s unclear whether All-American point guard Nigel Williams-Goss will leave for the NBA, where he’s a projected second-round draft pick. Gonzaga’s already losing a lot with big man Przemek Karnowski and guard Jordan Mathews graduating. And Zach Collins is a likely lottery pick. But assuming Williams-Goss returns and stretch forward Johnathan Williams comes back too, there’s enough talent to keep the ’Zags in the national mix.
► Recruiting class: C
20. Villanova
National player of the year finalist Josh Hart is graduating, and so is 2016 title hero Kris Jenkins. But guard Jalen Brunson, who evolved nicely as a sophomore, will be back to help keep the Wildcats atop the Big East. Also returning is Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo, Eric Paschall — all poised for larger roles.
► Recruiting class: A+
21. Saint Mary's
If Randy Bennett’s best weapon Jock Landale (16.9 ppg, 9.5 rpg) returns, the Gaels will be one of the best mid-majors in the country and a viable challenger to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. Five of Saint Mary’s top seven are likely too return from a 29-win club, including point guard Emmet Naar, who averaged 14 points and 6.4 assists a game as a sophomore but took a step down as a junior.
► Recruiting class: D
22. TCU
Coach Jamie Dixon returns his top six scorers from his NIT champion squad. The Horned Frogs have all the pieces to contend in the Big 12. Big man Vladimir Brodziansky (14.1 ppg) and double-double machine Kenrich Williams head the list of key returners.
► Recruiting class: B
23. Miami (Fla.)
Ja’Quan Newton and Bruce Brown are back, and coach Jim Larranaga brings in a top-10 recruiting class that’s headlined by marksman guard Lonnie Walker, the highest-rated commit in the school’s hoops history.
► Recruiting class: A
24. Cincinnati
Coach Mick Cronin has most of the nucleus back from his 30-win squad, including top three scorers Jacob Evans, Kyle Washington and Gary Clark. Guard Jarron Cumberland figures to take another step as a sophomore.
► Recruiting class: D
25. Northwestern
Remember that team that had Gonzaga on the ropes and had one brutal goaltending call destroy their momentum for a potential bracket-busting upset? Everyone’s back for Chris Collins’ near-miracle squad (the top five scorers, at least), which will play with the weight of the world off their shoulders after reaching the program’s first NCAA tournament appearance. Bryant McIntosh will be one of the best point guards in the country as a senior.
► Recruiting class: D
ALSO CONSIDERED
- 26. Butler
- 27. South Carolina
- 28. Memphis
- 29. Virginia
- 30. Providence
- 31. Seton Hall
- 32. Creighton
FORECASTING THE PRESEASON TOP 25 TEAMS
