Top 15 rookies set to make an impact for fantasy owners in 2017
Fantasy owners can't always count on young players with little to no major league experience, but the benefits of gambling on their upside can sometimes provide significant rewards.
Here is a look at USA TODAY Sports’ top 15 rookies heading into the season:
1. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox: In the middle of last year’s pennant race, Boston called up Benintendi to solidify its lineup. Only a leg injury prevented the 2015 first-round pick from losing his rookie status. In 34 games, he hit .295/.359/.476 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) and held his own as a 22-year-old.
Benintendi is the odds-on favorite to win American League rookie of the year in 2017. Despite his short stature, his combination of hitting, power and speed skills lends itself to future fantasy prominence. Expect .300-plus batting averages, 25 home runs and 20 stolen bases at maturity. Fantasy owners should expect his 2016 numbers to carry over into 2017, albeit with more power.
2. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves: While the depth of their pitching captures prospect headlines, the Braves’ cornerstone prospect, 23, remains the future All-Star shortstop.
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In 2016, management tested Swanson with an August call-up. He passed, with a .302/.361/.442 slash line. Swanson’s nuances of the game won’t always appear in his fantasy box score. But he’ll fill up enough stat categories (batting average, on-base percentage, runs, doubles, stolen bases) to make his roster spot worthwhile.
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3. Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates: Switch-hitting, strong bodied Bell has turned himself into a complete hitter. The 24-year-old acquitted himself well to major league pitching in 2016, hitting .273/.368/.406 over 128 at-bats. Advanced bat control allows Bell to succeed by hitting line drives to all fields. He has learned to sit back and drive pitches, and he made strides by hitting for more power in 2016.
At full projection, Bell is likely to be an above-average fantasy first baseman, yet with his skill set, even as a rookie, he should produce for fantasy owners in 2017.
4. Yulieski Gurriel, 3B, Houston Astros: The 32-year-old Cuban defector signed a five-year, $47.5 million deal with the Astros in July 2016. By Aug. 21, he was in the major leagues, flashing his strong skills, even if the initial results were a bit disappointing.
Gurriel’s bat speed and contact ability lend themselves to a high batting average, though while his strength indicates home run power, the topspin generated by his level swing could cap his home runs in the 15 to 18 range.
5. Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres: Margot struggled in his 37-at-bat introduction to major league pitching in September. Despite good bat speed, great hand-eye coordination and a tendency to avoid strikeouts, he will need to curb his natural aggressiveness. But his speed and stolen-base potential should make him a solid 2017 play.
6. Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies: The overall state of catching in baseball has helped to push this rookie into prominence in most fantasy formats. In short stints in the majors in the last two seasons, Murphy has hit eight home runs. But fantasy owners should take note that while Murphy, 25, has shortened his swing in the last two seasons, he remains vulnerable to strikeouts and likely a lower batting average. Still, his ability to launch home runs — and his hitter-friendly home ballpark — should work to his advantage in 2017.
7. Roman Quinn, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: Many prospects list exclude Quinn, 23, who is an average hitter with occasional pop. Plus, injuries have dogged Quinn’s career. But his excellent running ability (four seasons of 30-plus stolen bases over his career) and an opportunity to make his mark on a rebuilding club should not be ignored by fantasy owners.
8. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox: No top prospect regressed more in 2016 than Giolito. Still, few pitchers profile with a late-breaking plus-plus fastball and an equally deadly 12-to-6 power curveball. His stuff wasn’t able to overcome command and control issues in a 21 1/3-inning sample in the majors. To succeed long term, the 22-year-old must improve.
9. Yoan Moncada, 2B-3B, Chicago White Sox: Moncada, 21, is a polarizing top prospect. For starters, he is an exceptional athlete with plus speed who has significant contact and power potential. But he is also incredibly aggressive at the plate and was abused in a short 2016 big-league sample (12 strikeouts in 19 at-bats). The switch-hitter needs more polish. He is a better bet for production in the second half of the 2017 season, once he gets additional minor league seasoning.
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10. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Glasnow’s stuff has never been in question. When corralled, his two-seam fastball dominates. But scouts have concerns about the 23-year-old’s ability to command his fastball over time. As with Giolito, fantasy owners will be trading significant risk (walks, WHIP) for a tremendous potential return (strikeouts, ERA) in 2017.
11. Andrew Toles, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: Out of baseball in 2015, Toles, 24, managed to ascend three levels to make his major league debut in 2016. Once there, he hit for a .314/.365/.505 line, mostly against right-handed pitching. In a platoon, Toles could match this output. But he must prove he is able to hit left-handers.
12. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres: Renfroe, 25, slugged 34 home runs between Class AAA and San Diego while also cutting down his swing path significantly. Still, because of his impatience and a poor two-strike approach, there is a lot of swing and miss. In other words, lots of home runs will come with a low batting average and on-base percentage.
13. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies: Crawford, 22, struggled in Class AAA last year, batting .244/.328/.318 in 336 at-bats. While he maintained solid plate discipline and a high contact rate, the quality of contact left something to be desired. This is only likely a temporary roadblock, given his smooth swing plane and plus athleticism. Crawford’s headiness should take him to the majors in 2017.
14. Ozzie Albies, SS, Atlanta Braves: Albies, a 20-year-old switch-hitter, has tremendous hand-eye coordination and bat control. He hit .321/.391/.467 in 330 Class AA at bats. But he struggled in 222 Class AAA at-bats. Because of his slight frame, there are concerns he’s not currently equipped to handle the big-league grind. He stole 30 bases last season. Fantasy owners, think Luis Castillo with more power and less stolen-base potential.
15. Robert Gsellman, RHP, New York Mets: On the strength of a wipeout slider and a late-moving fastball, Gsellman, 23, seized a late-season opportunity to become New York’s second-best starter down the stretch. While his future projection is a point of contention among prospect evaluators, his current projection should provide fantasy owners with solid, mid-rotation results for an inexpensive price.
