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March Madness

Bubble Watch: Winners and losers among NCAA tournament fringe teams

Scott Gleeson
USA TODAY Sports

Playing the part of a prototypical NCAA tournament bubble team, Miami (Fla.) recently has used the motto "Find a way." That's what the Hurricanes did Saturday in a 71-65 victory against fellow bubble team Clemson.

Miami Hurricanes forward Kamari Murphy (21) reacts during the first half against the Clemson Tigers at Watsco Center.

They did so without Ja'Quan Newton, who missed his second consecutive game of a three-game suspension that coach for violating team rules. Coach Jim Larrañaga used only two players off the bench.

The win puts Miami in USA TODAY Sports' projected field of 68, but there's no room for the Hurricanes to stub their toe down the stretch. Right now, the best part about Miami's résumé is that there are no bad losses. Add one of those, and a non-conference strength of schedule in the 260s sinks them below competing bubble teams.

Here's a look at how the rest of the borderline teams fared on Saturday.

WINNERS

Kansas State

Trying to dig themselves out of a disastrous three-game losing streak that shifted the Wildcats on the wrong side of the bubble, D.J. Johnson tipped in a miss by Kamau Stokes with 1.6 seconds remaining, then added a free-throw to help KSU survive Texas 64-61 in Austin. Like Miami, Bruce Weber's group has no bad losses. Not too many losses in the stacked Big 12 are considered bad, but a loss to Texas would have been.

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Pittsburgh shuffled its way back into the bubble equation with a win over FSU.

Pittsburgh

The Panthers were on life support in the latest USA TODAY Sports bracketology projections. Now they're back on the bubble and in the mix for an at-large bid following a much-needed win against Florida State. Make no mistake, Pitt is a long shot at 4-10 in ACC play, which included a disastrous eight-game losing streak. But what Kevin Stallings' team has what most mid-major teams with a better record don't: Wins against FSU, Maryland and Virginia. Plus their non-conference credentials are much better than they were in the Jamie Dixon era.

Marquette

The Golden Eagles convincingly defeated Xavier on Saturday to inch closer to the right side of the bubble. Factor that with wins against Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall and Vanderbilt and we're looking at a tourney résumé. There's still plenty of work to do thanks to a non-conference strength of schedule in the 250-range.

Vanderbilt

The Commodores took down a ranked opponent in South Carolina, adding that to a list of solid wins that includes Florida, Iowa State and Arkansas. Oh, and one thing the committee will love about Bryce Drew's team: Vandy has the No. 1 non-conference strength of schedule. Can't say the team didn't challenge itself in that regard.

Tennessee

The Volunteers avoided a résumé blemish in cruising past Missouri by 20 points, and right now this team just needs more wins. Because a top-five strength of schedule will serve as eye candy to the committee.

Arkansas 

The Razorbacks took care of business on Saturday, clobbering fellow bubble team Ole Miss. Arkansas doesn't have a ton of great wins and lost to Missouri but has a solid list of top-100 victories to keep it on the right side of the bubble for now.

Alabama

Beating up on last-place LSU won't do the Tide any favors, but it was a win the Tide had to have. And it counts toward the win total.

Bubble teams Iowa State and TCU bumped heads, and the Cyclones came out on top.

Iowa State

It very realistically could come down to TCU or Iowa State in the eyes of the selection committee. Had the Cyclones lost to the Horned Frogs twice, well, the decision would have been made right then and there. Beating TCU on Saturday was crucial if not necessary for an at-large bid, and if Iowa State is tied with another bubble team, a gigantic road win at Kansas can be a checkmate. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs' best win came against...Iowa State.

Wichita State

The Shockers just don't have the profile to notch an at-large bid this year playing in a Missouri Valley Conference that only has one other good team — fellow bubble team Illinois State, but it's been how they've been clobbering opponents lately that's been most noticeable. That includes Saturday's 29-point win against Northern Iowa. Wichita State previously routed an injury-plagued Illinois State team that had previously beaten the Shockers and still sits atop the Valley standings. If the committee is paying close attention, it will see that Wichita State is sending a definitive message in its wins. Unfortunately for Gregg Marshall's group, it's the stats where Wichita State is lacking that matter.

Texas-Arlington

The Mavericks squeaked out a one-point road victory at Georgia State on Saturday and have a long-but-possible shot at notching an at-large bid as a mid-major from a seemingly one-bid Sun Belt Conference. UTA's credentials are highlighted by a win at Saint Mary's (Dec. 8) and a really solid RPI of 36. But other borderline teams would have to falter and the Mavericks would likely have to win out until the Sun Belt tournament final for it to be close.

Dayton

The Flyers are pretty safe, but Rhode Island's loss to Fordham earlier this week was a reminder that A-10 teams really aren't that safe, even for top teams. And, unfortunately, Dayton's best wins came against ... Rhode Island. The Flyers shook off St. Bonaventure to stay comfortable, something they'll need to continually do with virtually no signature wins.

Illinois

The Illini are a long shot, but their top-15 strength of schedule is exactly the type of stat that sometimes can convince the committee to throw a curve ball. Saturday's win against Iowa was a step in the right direction and makes the 5-9 Big Ten record look less ugly.

LOSERS

Texas Tech

Texas Tech coughed up a genuine profile-building opportunity in losing to WVU in 2OTs.

The problem a good chunk of bubble teams face is that they are running out of opportunities to bolster the résumés. That's where Texas Tech is now following a  double-overtime loss to West Virginia. The victory Monday against Baylor was huge, but the Red Raiders missed chances to solidify their place when they couldn't manage to take down West Virginia on Saturday or hold on to beat Kansas a week ago (they lost by one point). A non-conference schedule in the 330s is mind-bogging. The last four-game stretch can't seriously boost Tech's résumé and it's also booby-trapped with losable games to fellow bubble teams Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Those are must wins.

Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons almost did it at Duke. A win against a team playing like a legitimate title contender right now would have gone really far for the résumé, especially considering Wake Forest's best win is Miami (Fla.) Other than that, Wake Forest has an RPI in the 30s and a top-20 strength of schedule that keep things interesting.

Virginia Tech

The Hokies' lousy non-conference schedule (it ranks No. 284) is negated by wins against Duke, Virginia and a handful of other NCAA tournament teams. Saturday's loss to Louisville was simply a genuine opportunity to enhance their profile that slipped away after two recent wins against Pitt and Virginia. On this résumé, a loss to N.C. State (Jan. 4) stands out. What will matter is how Virginia Tech handles other remaining ACC games against other bubble teams — Clemson, Miami and Wake Forest on the remaining schedule.

Georgia could have significantly boosted its profile with a win against Kentucky but ultimately came up just short.

Georgia

The Bulldogs were right there against Kentucky, and the whole right there description might be fitting for their NCAA tournament status, too. Had Georgia beaten Kentucky, that'd give the team a signature win, which is something it's desperately lacking to complement a decent RPI and strong strength of schedule.

Auburn

Among the seven (!) bubble teams in the SEC, the Tigers were drifting toward the back of that pack. Consider them outside the pack after Saturday's 81-62 loss to Texas A&M, a team that fell off the bubble itself. After losing four of six, Auburn has zero chance of beating an elite team to build its profile to close out the regular season. The loss to the Aggies was the last straw, basically.

Michigan State

Should the Spartans make it to the NCAA tournament, it's hard to count out a Tom Izzo-coached team in March. But Saturday's loss to Purdue was a step in the wrong direction. It won't push them out, but a win certainly could have pushed them closer to the safety zone — as Michigan's win against Wisconsin on Thursday did. A non-conference loss to Northeastern is what really hurts Michigan State, but a top-20 strength of schedule helps.

Seton Hall

The Pirates lost to arguably the best team in the country in Villanova on Saturday. A win would have been really nice, but it's their overall profile, which includes a loss to St. John's, that puts Seton Hall in uncomfortable terrain. The Pirates need to win three of the four remaining Big East games to get comfortable.

USC

The Trojans had an opportunity to garner sweep UCLA and further punctuate a likely tournament résumé. Instead it leaves work to do for the Trojans, whose next best win is SMU. There's no bad losses on the profile and an RPI in the 30s for USC, which is in the midst of a gauntlet stretch that included a previous loss to Oregon and is capped off with a road clash at Arizona on Thursday.

Houston

The Cougars needed a marquee win to have any shot and blew it against SMU on Saturday despite leading at the half.

NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE TEAMS

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