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The odds of winning Warren Buffett's $1 million first round challenge (spoiler: they're not good)

Investor Warren Buffett probably has Berkshire Hathaway employees seeing dollar signs in their eyes after he offered $1 million for hitting a perfect opening round in their NCAA Tournament brackets.

Unfortunately, we’re here to bring a dose of reality to the situation. Guessing 32 games correctly (not including Tuesday and Wednesday’s First Four games) is absolutely easier than a full, perfect bracket, but the odds are extremely terrible.

To help us with this, we called DePaul University math professor Jeff Bergen, the same guy who calculated the odds of guessing all 67 games correctly (one in 128 billion!!!).

He told For The Win that completely guessing — without using data or past knowledge — 32 games correctly is the equivalent of flipping a coin 32 times and always landing heads. The result? It’s 1 out of 2 to the 32nd power, or …

1 in 4,294,967,296.

“To put that in perspective, that’s 15 times harder than winning the lottery with one ticket,” Bergen said.

But, as we know, that’s not how we guess winners in our brackets. We use data and knowledge put together from previous years to educate our guesses. Bergen pointed out that another way to approach this problem is to guess all the higher seeds winning their opening-round games, which would reduce the odds to an extremely healthy …

1 in 17,000.

But you’re not going to do that, are you? Because that never happens. And that’s Bergen’s third point: Why are there only a handful of perfect brackets left after the first round among millions who participate in huge pools? Because there’s usually a ton of overlap in the combination of upsets chosen.

“If people are using information and data, their brackets are going to be very, very similar,” he said.

His advice?

“Have fun,” Bergen said. “Perfection is really hard to achieve, but fun is easier to achieve.”

For bracket tips to help you win your pool, head over to USA TODAY Sports.

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