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MLB
Joey Votto

Bold prediction: Reds’ Joey Votto makes his case for NL MVP

Steve Gardner
USA TODAY Sports

As the 2017 Major League Baseball season begins, USA TODAY Sports' baseball staff lays out its bold predictions for the six months ahead:

Joey led the NL in on-base percentage for the fifth time in the last seven seasons.

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For the better part of a decade, Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto has been one of the best hitters in baseball.

A walk might not necessarily be as good as a hit, but it sure is better than an out. And Votto has been a master at avoiding outs. In 2016, he led the National League in on-base percentage for the fifth time in the last seven seasons with a mark of .434.

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However, the Reds’ recent lack of success as a team has overshadowed Votto’s true value. With his expensive long-term contract (seven years and about $179 million left) seemingly at odds with the team’s need to rebuild, the 2010 NL MVP isn’t always appreciated by his own fans — fans who haven’t seen their team in the playoffs since 2013.

Again this year, the rebuilding Reds don’t figure to sniff the playoffs. But Votto is primed for a season to make even the skeptics take notice.

If not for a terrible April and May (.213 average, .330 OBP, .404 slugging percentage), Votto’s 2016 numbers would have been off the charts. In the season’s final four months, he hit a blistering .378/.482/.619 with 20 home runs and 67 RBI.

Numbers don’t really tell the whole story with Votto. Part of the reason he has just two 100-RBI seasons in his 10-year career (he drove in a total of 97 last year) is the Reds’ collective inability to set the table for him. But things are looking up.

Over last season’s second half, leadoff man Billy Hamilton got on base at a .369 clip, a marked improvement from his .283 in the first half.

And the Reds called up another speedster in Jose Peraza, who posted a .380 OBP in the second half. With those two wreaking havoc on the basepaths, Votto can afford to be selective and still get decent pitches to hit, especially with 33-homer outfielder Adam Duvall behind him.

Votto chose not to play for his native Canada in the World Baseball Classic because he was unhappy about the way he started last season. If he can improve those April and May numbers even slightly, he will thrust himself into the MVP discussion.

And if the Reds can improve their victory total even slightly, Votto will win the award.

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