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RED WINGS
Detroit Red Wings

Best bet for Detroit Red Wings? Start selling, then start losing

Helene St. James
Detroit Free Press
Red Wings center Darren Helm (43) and center Dylan Larkin (71) congratulate left wing Thomas Vanek (62) after Vanek scored a goal during the third period of the Wings' 5-2 win Sunday, Feb. 19, 2017 in Pittsburgh.

If the offers are good, expect the Detroit Red Wings to start selling – and then start losing.

A week ahead of the March 1 trade deadline, the Wings appear unlikely to make the playoffs for the first time since 1990. Inspiring weekend victories against Washington and Pittsburgh segued into a loss against the New York Islanders, and now the Wings are idle for six days because of their bye break. By the time they resume playing Tuesday, they will have sunk further in the standings.

That’s the reality of the present situation, and why the Wings have to make decisions weighed against rebuilding as quickly as possible. The Wings have two unrestricted free agents who should garner interest in forward Thomas Vanek and defenseman Brendan Smith. Both become unrestricted free agents this summer.

General manager Ken Holland has talked to half of his NHL colleagues over the past few days, with a handful more calls to come in the coming days. If a good offer emerges for Vanek – say a first-round pick, high-end prospect, or two second-round picks, expect Vanek to have a new home soon. Holland has talked to Vanek’s agent, and there is interest on both sides in Vanek being brought back this summer, as he has been more than the Wings hoped for when they signed him last July for one season at $2.6 million.

Smith should attract interest because teams eyeing a Stanley Cup run always are eager for defensive depth, and Smith is mobile and plays with an edge. It’s possible there could be inquiries about Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist, too, from teams looking for scoring depth.

The uglier side of deciding the playoffs are out of reach is realizing it's better to finish as low as possible (the Wings are currently 26th in the league, and Colorado and Arizona have a good lead on finishing in the bottom two spots).

Related: Jared Coreau to minors; Jimmy Howard behind

The NHL draft lottery uses a weighted system to determine the order of selection for the teams that fail to qualify for the playoffs – this year, with the expansion Vegas franchise, that means 15 teams. The weighted system was implemented to deter teams from tanking to finish lower in the standings, but there still is incentive to do so because the lowest four teams receive better odds of picking within the top four than the teams that finish 17-26 (the Vegas team will have the same odds of winning the lottery as the team with the third-fewest points).

No one is going to tell Henrik Zetterberg to stop being the every-day player he is, or tell the Wings in general to start tanking, but given how much the team has struggled all season, going forward without Vanek likely will lead to more losses anyway. If Smith goes, the Wings defense loses experience and bite – likely replaced by the chance to get a look at prospect Robbie Russo, who has turned heads in Grand Rapids.

It’s an unusual spring that sees the Wings as sellers, but one that has been creeping up for years. Last season, the Wings made it into the playoffs on the last day, and not by their own volition. It happened because Ottawa routed Boston, sliding the Wings into third place in the Atlantic. In 2015, the Wings clinched after the second-to-last game of the season, helped that time by Boston losing to Florida. In three of the previous four years, the Wings have lost in the first round.

The streak would have ended a decade ago had it not been for Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk putting the Wings on their shoulders and carrying them forward. But now Datsyuk is gone, and nobody from the 25-30 age group has emerged as successors.

The Wings would do well to accumulate draft picks, even though 2017 is not a banner draft. Picks can also be used as the Wings attempt a package deal for an upgrade on defense. The organization knew 2016-17 was going to be tough and so it has come to pass. The streak should be appreciated for how incredible it is – consider that the next best current one is the Penguins at 10 seasons.

But it always was going to end. Now that it appears certain, the Wings are best served by using their demise to their future advantage.

Contact Helene St. James: hstjames@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @helenestjames.

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