Louisville basketball | Hoops experts break down U of L-UNC showdown
- U of L at UNC, 9 p.m., Wednesday, Chapel Hill, N.C. TV: ESPN. Radio: WHAS-840.
The stakes for a regular-season game couldn't be much higher when sixth-ranked Louisville (22-5, 10-4 ACC) takes on No. 8 North Carolina (23-5, 11-3) at 9 p.m. Wednesday at the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C.
Some college basketball analysts see it was a heavyweight bout with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament on the line.
One thing is clear: It's a top-flight matchup between two college hoops blue bloods with first place in the ACC up for grabs, so we enlisted ESPN hoops analysts Dick Vitale and Seth Greenberg to break down the much-anticipated matchup for us.
Scouting Louisville
The matchups, Greenberg said, favor Louisville. In his eyes, the Cards' size and length – U of L is one of the few teams in the country with comparable athleticism and height to North Carolina – could bother UNC point guard Joel Berry II.
Rick Pitino rotates four big men, starting 6-foot-9 Jaylen Johnson and 6-10 Mangok Mathiang and then substituting 6-10 Ray Spalding and 7-foot Anas Mahmoud. Johnson is Louisville's best rebounder, while Mahmoud, Mathiang and Spalding each average at least one block per game.
"(U of L) can match them in their frontcourt," Greenberg said. "The matchup zone slows people down. Quentin (Snider) and Deng (Adel) and Donovan (Mitchell) are making shots. They're big enough and athletic enough to deal with UNC's perimeter. ... It seems to me that the frontcourt is gaining confidence. They've got a legitimate outside-inside combination."
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Vitale focused on Mitchell, who has made two or more 3-pointers in 11 of 14 ACC games. He has emerged as a top contender for the league's player of the year award.
The last time Vitale was on an ESPN broadcast team for a Louisville game, Mitchell was 2 for 10 in a 73-68 loss at Florida State. Since that game, the 6-3 guard has averaged 20.3 points per game and is 51 of 100 from the field, including 24 of 50 from 3-point range.
"Mitchell and Snider are big for them," Vitale said. "Having Snider back is a big, big plus. Mitchell is the star. He's explosive. He's a guy who has to be consistent. He has so much talent. You've got to make some shots."
Scouting North Carolina
Roy Williams' team is "an outstanding offensive machine," Vitale said, and the Tar Heels are at their best working the offensive glass or running out in transition. They get a third of their points from second-chance opportunities and fast-break buckets. Justin Jackson, a 6-8 junior wing, averages 19.6 points per game in ACC play and makes an impressive 46.1 percent of his shots.
But it's Carolina's defense of late that has the Heels firing on all cylinders. They blasted free-falling Virginia, 65-41, on Saturday, holding the Cavaliers to 2-of-20 shooting from 3-point range, though UVA missed its fair share of open looks.
"They can score big and they can score in spurts," Vitale said. "They did a great job with their defensive effort in that game (Virginia). They've got a lot of weapons offensively. ... The biggest concern, if you're Louisville, is defensive transition. You have to play five on five. They run the break really well."
Greenberg agreed: UNC, in its five losses, registered well below its typical offensive rebounding percentage.
"Any time you play Carolina, you have to do a good job in defensive transition, defend the post early and keep them off the glass," Greenberg said.
One catch for Greenberg: Defensive effort. Does UNC bring it Wednesday night?
"The biggest thing, to me, is that at times Carolina can be disinterested defensively," he said. "I thought they were very good and disciplined against Virginia. At times they can get into a mindset of trying to outscore you. This is a different game."
The X-factors
For North Carolina, Vitale thinks it's Theo Pinson, who has played in nine games this season after missing the first half of the season with a broken foot. The 6-foot-6 wing is the Tar Heels' "energy guy," both Vitale and Greenberg said, averaging 7.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists and one steal a game. Pinson will be tasked with guarding Mitchell, who averages 18.1 points per game in ACC play.
"He's very good on the defensive end," Vitale said. "They lost (sophomore guard) Kenny Williams. That's a big loss for them defensively. That puts a little burden on them. But having a healthy Pinson helps them a lot."
Vitale wasn't so pinpointed when it came to Louisville. The Cards, he said, have so many different weapons that it's hard to pick one guy to zero in on beyond Mitchell or Snider.
"You never know what you're going to get – you could get a monster game out of Adel," Vitale said. "You could get a monster game out of (V.J. King). They've got so many parts. You don't know what you're going to get out of a guy. They've got some great athletes up front, too."
The matchup to watch
Adel, at 6-7, 200 pounds, has good size and skill to defend Jackson, who like Mitchell is one of the top contenders for ACC player of the year. Last season, Adel played just three minutes in U of L's 71-65 win over North Carolina, primarily because he was working his way back from a knee injury.
But Adel did hold Duke's Brandon Ingram, another tall, athletic small forward, to 3-of-10 shooting while committing 10 turnovers in a game late last season.
"The X-factor is Justin Jackson," Greenberg said. "You find him in transition. That's really important. That's where he gets it going. You have to close with your hands above the ball. (Adel) is long enough to do that. (Pitino) really teaches pushing back and taking away that first step. Where Louisville has the advantage, Jackson's driving into size. Not many other teams have that size inside."
