USA TODAY Sports' Super Bowl LI predictions: Patriots or Falcons?
The 2016 NFL season concludes Sunday when the New England Patriots, who are three-point favorites, and Atlanta Falcons meet in Super Bowl LI.
Here's how USA TODAY Sports' NFL staff sees the game playing out:
Jarrett Bell
Playoff record: 7-3
Prediction: Patriots
Why: We've seen this before — hot offense against a superb defense. No reason to think that Bill Belichick and Co. won't discover the keys to thawing Matty Ice. And with Tom Brady fueled by Deflategate (whether he admits it or not), he will get the best of a young Falcons D. It feels like the Patriots will emerge again in another tight Super matchup.
Score: 38-34
MVP: Tom Brady
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Nate Davis
Playoff record: 9-1
Prediction: Falcons
Why: Atlanta has the league’s best receiver, top running back tandem and MVP Matt Ryan.. It ought to be enough firepower to beat a Patriots team missing its best player not named Tom Brady … that being injured TE Rob Gronkowski, of course. An improving Falcons defense will need to provide another stellar effort to notch the franchise’s first championship, but it has shown for two months that it can protect the leads that Ryan and Co. so readily provide — even against elite quarterbacks like Brady. (And I picked the Falcons to beat the Patriots six weeks ago — no chance I'm changing now!)
Score: 31-27
MVP: Devonta Freeman
Lindsay H. Jones
Prediction: Falcons
Why: Even though history is telling me to pick New England in a matchup of its No. 1 scoring defense vs. Atlanta's No. 1 offense, there is something just so special about these Falcons that makes me think they'll break the Patriots. Atlanta is just so deep offensively, with two running backs, dangerous receivers alongside Julio Jones, capable tight ends and a quarterback who will cap his MVP season with a Super Bowl win.
Score: 31-28
MVP: Matt Ryan
Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz
Playoff record: 9-1
Prediction: Patriots
Why: New England's stingy defense hasn't seen anything like Atlanta's deep and varied attack. But the Patriots were my pre-playoffs pick (over the Falcons), and it's difficult to pick against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in this setting. Brady has been masterful at exploiting the weak links of any defense, and he could find vulnerable spots against a young Falcons group still finding its footing.
Score: 31-27
MVP: Tom Brady
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Tom Pelissero
Playoff record: 6-4
Prediction: Patriots
Why: I think it’ll be a competitive game. I just can’t bring myself to bet against Tom Brady in this situation, knowing how he’s wired and how incredibly efficient he’s been since returning from his Deflategate suspension. Throw in that you have maybe the greatest defensive coach in NFL history scheming against the Falcons’ high-powered offense, and I tilt this — barely — toward New England.
Score: 30-27
MVP: Tom Brady
Lorenzo Reyes
Playoff record: 5-5
Prediction: Patriots
Why: While Atlanta boasts a high-octane offense, there’s no one better in the NFL than Bill Belichick at crafting game plans to disrupt what a team does best. I think the Patriots will try to mirror what they did in Super Bowl XXXVI, when they beat the St. Louis Rams, the so-called Greatest Show on Turf. Because of the Falcons' speed on offense, I’m expecting New England to be physical at the line of scrimmage to try to throw off Atlanta's timing. That should allow the Patriots' pass rush to get home and fluster Matt Ryan. Meanwhile, I’m betting Tom Brady will fire quick throws to open up the passing game and will exploit matchups that favor New England.
Score: 30-28
MVP: Tom Brady
PHOTOS: Super Bowl LI teams at practice
