Highs and lows of the Pagano-Grigson era
There are media reports that coach Chuck Pagano is returning to the Indianapolis Colts for a sixth season. Here's a look back at the first five seasons of Pagano and General Manager Ryan Grigson in Indianapolis:
HIGHS
2012 VICTORY OVER GREEN BAY
Consider where the Colts were at halftime of this game:
>> During the bye week before this game, first-year coach Chuck Pagano announced that he had a rare form of leukemia and would be out indefinitely.
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>> A team picked to be the worst in the NFL at the start of the season was 1-2.
>> The Colts trailed 21-3.
This was the first true glimpse of what this team could accomplish. Under interim coach Bruce Arians, Andrew Luck put the Colts ahead 22-21. Then, after Green Bay scored with 4:30 to play to re-take the lead, Luck hit Reggie Wayne — who had 13 catches for 212 yards wearing orange gloves in honor of Pagano — for a four-yard touchdown with 35 seconds left for the 30-27 victory.
This is what IndyStar columnist Bob Kravitz wrote:
"In my 40 years in this business, I've never been prouder of a team and how they battled back," Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay told me after he and General Manager Ryan Grigson presented coach Chuck Pagano with the game ball early Sunday night at the IU Health Simon Cancer Center. "I've been in a lot of winning locker rooms, Super Bowl locker rooms, but I've never had an experience like this. People talk about money, what the team is worth, those kinds of things, but this was priceless. Absolutely priceless.
"We walked in, he (Pagano) got up, we all embraced and shed some tears, and Chuck said, 'You know, I don't feel so sick right now.' "
Luck has since been known for his game-winning, fourth-quarter drives, posting 18 since he was drafted; only Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson have more.
The Colts have also posted the best record in games decided by seven points or fewer during Pagano's tenure: 31-12, a .721 winning percentage. New England (.650) is a distant second followed by Denver (.618), Arizona (.574) and Dallas (.565).
If Pagano had managed his previous success — a .764 winning percentage — in the team's nine close games this season, the Colts would have been 10-6 and AFC South champs.
ONE STEP FURTHER IN FIRST THREE SEASONS
Pagano and Grigson inherited a team coming off a 2-14 season with a horrific salary cap situation ... and went 11-5. Here is how Kravitz described Pagano's return from his battle with cancer to win the season finale and reach the playoffs:
This is why we pay attention to sports. Because they have the power to inspire. Because they are real. Because they have the ability to move us in the most remarkable ways.
Want to feel good this morning? Check out the post-game video on Colts.com. There were Pagano's players, dancing, and there was Pagano dancing, although he needs to work on those dance moves before it comes time for his daughters' weddings. At one point, he turned to team owner Jim Irsay, hugged, and then the pair danced together.
A special scene. A special football team.
The Colts posted 11-5 records again in 2013 and '14, using a historic comeback to defeat Kansas City in 2013 to advance to the second round (see below), then reaching the 2014 AFC Championship game (more on that later, too).
Colts owner Jim Irsay had taken to comparing the start of the Pagano-Grigson era to that of Polian-Manning. Even given the disappointment of the past two seasons, Pagano-Grigson were 49-31 in their five years with a 3-3 record in the playoffs. The Polian-Manning Colts were 42-38 with an 0-3 record in the postseason.
Yes, you can dismiss that comparison by noting the Polian-Manning teams were on the rise, while the Pagano-Grigson teams have apparently stagnated.
But you can't dismiss the first three seasons.
COMEBACK VERSUS KANSAS CITY
The Colts trailed Kansas City 38-10 in the third quarter on Jan. 4, 2014. Since 1994, according to www.pro-football-reference.com's Play Index, 661 teams.
One pulled out a victory. Kravitz:
This is how Andrew Luck starts his legend. Years from now, you'll always know where you were, how you were feeling the moment Luck put the Indianapolis Colts on his broad shoulders and led them back from a 38-10 deficit and willed the Colts to a 45-44 wild card victory over the star-crossed Kansas City Chiefs.
John Elway had The Drive.
Luck has The Comeback.
And to think, it was just his first-ever post-season win. What's a guy do for an encore?
This is the foundation upon which legends are formed. This is why Luck has every chance to someday be remembered as one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play this game. Not simply because of his arm or his legs, but because of his force of will.
"He kept telling us, even at 38-10, 'We're going to win this game,'" Anthony Castonzo said.
It was Luck's first playoff victory in his second playoff game.
In the second half, Luck was 17-of-22 for 314 yards — a cool 14.3 yards per attempt — with three touchdowns, plus 22 rushing yards, five returning a Donald Brown fumble for a touchdown.
VICTORIES OVER DENVER ... AND PEYTON MANNING
It's certainly fair to question the Colts success in big games during the Pagano-Grigson (and, yes, Luck) era but perhaps the two biggest victories came against an old friend.
When the Colts hosted Peyton Manning for the first time on Oct. 20, 2013, doubts had been cast on just how quickly they would establish themselves. The Colts were coming off a surprising loss to San Diego that dropped them to 4-2; Denver was coming in at 6-0 with Manning at the height of his abilities. A 4-3 record heading into the bye week was a distinct possibility.
But Robert Mathis delivered a strip-sack of Manning that resulted in a safety to cut the Broncos' lead to 14-12. The Colts took the lead after the ensuing free kick and didn't trail again. Luck (228 passing yards, four total touchdowns) out-performed Manning (386 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, one fumble).
Kravitz captured the moment:
It was Peyton Week.
But it was a Colts Sunday night.
You may exhale now: Indianapolis Colts 39, Manning's Broncos 33.
After a week of hype and harsh words, and a night of adulation and special sentiments during which Peyton Manning was the focus of the football world's attention, it turned out the game had less to do with No. 18 and more to do with the Colts' Other Guys.
It had everything to do with the Colts defense, and especially Robert Mathis, who has been waiting a decade to blind-side and strip-sack Manning. Mathis is having a Defensive Player of the Year type of season.
The teams were in similar situations when they met on Jan. 11, 2015, the Colts an underdog in Denver in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Denver was 12-4 and coming off a bye. Manning again took an early lead — 7-0 — but the Colts quickly established themselves as the better team on defense. The Colts advanced to the AFC Championship Game by holding Manning to 26-of-46 for 211 yards with one touchdown and a fumble.
Here were IndyStar columnist Gregg Doyel's thoughts on the unexpectedly convincing victory:
By beating the Broncos in Denver, and by doing it the way they did it, the Colts have shut up every critic, answered every question, earned every benefit of the doubt. And for weeks there have been doubts. Well-deserved doubts. Which doubts?
It doesn't matter. Not after this game, when the Colts made the Broncos look so bad that the crowd turned on the home team, booing Peyton Manning for missed passes and booing the Denver coaches for play calls before leaving the stadium with several minutes left and the Broncos in theory still having a chance.
Not that theories mattered much Sunday. Because the theory was, the Colts couldn't win this game.
"As far as the critics go and the pundits," said Colts coach Chuck Pagano, "I don't think anybody thought we could come in here and get this done."
TWO WINS TO FINISH 2015
It was an extraordinary, perhaps unprecedented, swing of public opinion given the facts.
In a three-week stretch, the Colts were blown out by Pittsburgh (45-11), embarrassed by Jacksonville (51-17) then lost a must-win game to Houston and backup quarterback Brandon Weeden, who had lost 11 consecutive games as a starter, in Lucas Oil Stadium.
Yes, Luck was out for the season but the fans, seemingly, had had enough of Chuck Pagano.
Then, the Colts beat Miami, 18-12, with quarterbacks Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst suffering season-ending injuries.
Then, the Colts beat Tennessee after signing Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley off the street to play quarterback. #ChuckStay was born.
Most assumed Pagano was out as coach after finishing 8-8 but a passionate plea for his job to Irsay earned a four-year extension instead.
Pagano is rightfully criticized for his cliche-ridden answers and, at times, his team's failures in big games. But the end of 2015 demonstrated his ability to rally a team out of hopelessness and win games no one expected.
LOWS
NEW ENGLAND
Nothing captures the lows of the Pagano-Grigson era better than the Colts' performance against the Patriots.
>> 0-5, including two playoff losses.
>> Four games decided by more than three touchdowns.
>> A total score of 223-100.
The only close loss — 34-27 last season — included the worst play in the Pagano-Grigson era (more on that below), and the biggest blowout launched Deflategate, one of the NFL's recent public relations disasters. (To recap, the Colts' role was asking the NFL to check that a rule was being followed. No one connected to the Colts suggested the air pressure of the balls had any influence on the 45-7 final score.)
Manning and Dungy eventually slayed the Brady-Belichick dragon that has been New England.
Pagano and Grigson haven't yet.
Doyel on the Colts and Patriots:
... (We) already know the Colts can beat good teams.
Let's set the bar a little higher, huh?
Let's set it higher than the Colts were willing to set it after the loss Sunday night, when coach Chuck Pagano and several players offered the same upbeat refrain.
"We took another step forward," said Pagano.
"I think we are getting better," said offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo.
"Every year (we) get a step closer," said safety Mike Adams.
All true, and not good enough. Not for a franchise with the best young quarterback in the NFL.
Blowout losses have been a recurring theme in the Pagano-Grigson era, with 11 by more than 21 points. The only other teams with that many read like a list of the NFL's worst teams since 2012: Tennessee (15), New York Jets (14), St. Louis/Los Angeles (13), Chicago (11), Jacksonville (11) and Oakland (11).
FAKE PUNT
It has been called, repeatedly, the worst fake punt in history.
Colt Anderson lined up under Griff Whalen on fourth-and-3 from the Colts' 37-yard line with the Patriots leading 27-21 and 1:14 remaining in the third quarter. With three Patriots lined up over him, Whalen snapped the ball and Anderson was tackled for a 3-yard loss.
The Patriots scored on the ensuing possession to take a 34-21 lead in an eventual 34-27 victory on Oct. 18, 2015.
Whalen will certainly be linked to this play for the rest of his life, but Gregg Doyel notes the true fault lay elsewhere:
... Pagano never came out and said what he should have said, what we now know, that Whalen was the wrong guy in the wrong place at the wrong time. What Pagano said was this: The Colts worked on that play all week in practice.
"It wasn't desperation," he said after the game. "It was stuff that was practiced."
... just not by Griff Whalen.
Did Pagano forget that part?
The snapper all week in practice on that awful play, a play that will live forever in infamy — right up there with the Mark Sanchez butt fumble — was Clayton Geathers.
Not Griff Whalen.
BAD LOSSES TO HOUSTON
The Texans couldn't beat the Colts, certainly not in Indianapolis. Houston lost nine consecutive games to the Colts after entering the league as an expansion team in 2002, won a game at home, then lost six more in a row. The Texans won three in a row at home then lost six more to the Colts.
Then came Dec. 20, 2015.
Despite the loss of Andrew Luck, the Colts had an opportunity to seize control of the AFC South.
Instead, they lost at home to the Texans for the first time ...
... to Brandon Weeden ...
... who had lost 11 consecutive starts.
This season, the Colts blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in Houston.
Then, with another opportunity to seize control of the AFC South, the Colts dropped a 22-17 decision to Brock Osweiler ... who would be benched the following week.
For every time Pagano has rallied the Colts from a near hopeless situation, these three games cast a shadow on his tenure in Indianapolis.
A playoff team doesn't lose this game. Not at home. Not to an opponent on a three-game losing streak, an opponent quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler. Not with this much at stake.
"Game 7," is how Indianapolis Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton had described Sunday's virtual AFC South elimination game earlier this week.
And when it was over, after the only noise inside the upper reaches of Lucas Oil Stadium were disgusted boos from Colts fans and hoarse cheers from the Houston Texans' coaches' booth, this is how Hilton described the Colts' 22-17 loss on Sunday:
"We laid down," Hilton said.
Well.
CONFLICT BETWEEN PAGANO AND GRIGSON
There's no question differences of opinion between Pagano and Grigson have effected the locker room. From Colts Insider Stephen Holder:
Coach Chuck Pagano and his staff are being directed to follow lineup decisions — usually the coaches' prerogative — made by the front office, something numerous NFL sources confirmed. This has been a recurring source of irritation for Pagano and his coaches. During the past several weeks, and even dating to last season, there have been instances in which, sources said, players approached Pagano or his assistants with suggestions or requests, only to be told they could not act on the ideas because of forces beyond their control.
Another concern noted by players is the continued speculation about the future of Pagano, who does not have a contract beyond 2015 and was involved in an unproductive contract negotiation with the club during the offseason. Pagano is still seen as being at risk of firing if results don't improve — the Colts are a disappointing 3-5 halfway through the season — though the move to oust offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton this week might buy Pagano some time.
There has been much less discussion about the relationship between Pagano and Grigson this season, but it almost certainly had a negative effect on the team's performance during their tenure.
DEFENSE
On Oct. 15, 2013, Irsay spoke to USA Today's Jarrett Bell and made clear his goals for post-Peyton Manning Colts:
"We've changed our model a little bit, because we wanted more than one of these," Irsay said, flicking up his right hand to show his Super Bowl XLI championship ring. "(Tom) Brady never had consistent numbers, but he has three of these. Pittsburgh had two, the Giants had two, Baltimore had two and we had one. That leaves you frustrated.
"You make the playoffs 11 times, and you're out in the first round seven out of 11 times. You love to have the Star Wars numbers from Peyton and Marvin (Harrison) and Reggie (Wayne). Mostly, you love this."
Irsay demanded Grigson and Pagano "build a well-rounded team, with the offense supported by outstanding special teams and a dependable defense."
Pagano was the coordinator of a Baltimore Ravens defense that ranked third in the NFL in yards and points allowed the year before he was hired.
It hasn't transferred to the Colts.
Over the five-year Pagano-Grigson era, the Colts finished better than 19th in points allowed (2013) and yards (2014) once, each. This season they finished 30th in yards allowed per game.
While the Colts had incredible highs and unbelievable lows, the one constant was a sub-par defense.