10 Group of Five teams ready for rebound season ending in bowl

Continuity reigns on the Power Five level. Oklahoma is a Big 12 Conference powerhouse, having captured seven of the past 11 league titles. Alabama owns the Southeastern Conference. Florida State and Clemson have been the undisputed leaders in the Atlantic Coast Conference for much of the decade.

In comparison, it’s almost common — if at least not too surprising — to see a Group of Five program quickly rebuild itself with one key hire, or through impressive player development, or even with a fortuitous stroke of luck on the recruiting trail.

Western Michigan provides the latest example. The Broncos won just a single game four seasons ago, in former coach P.J. Fleck’s debut; this past fall, WMU completed a perfect regular season, earning a spot in the Cotton Bowl and Fleck a major-conference gig at Minnesota.

The Broncos weren’t the first to pull of this turnaround — Boise State, TCU, Utah and several others have done the same since the turn of the century — and they won’t be the last. This week’s top 10 list asks the question: Which Group of Five team fresh off a losing season is primed to streak into bowl play in 2017?

There are no shortage of options. But the list begins with a team from the American Athletic Conference poised to contend for a divisional title behind a coach seemingly destined to follow Fleck’s path to a Power Five position.

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1. SMU (2016 record: 5-7)

Chad Morris enters his third season at Southern Methodist with the roster, depth and experience needed to notch the program’s first bowl bid since 2012. It hasn’t been an easy path: Morris inherited a wreck from his predecessor, making last year’s 5-7 finish — the Mustangs were 5-5 before losing two in a row to end the year — a clear sign that a winning season is on the near horizon. Don’t be surprised if SMU takes a significant step forward in 2017.

2. Georgia Southern (2016 record: 5-7)

Despite its status as a Football Bowl Subdivision neophyte — a period coming on the heels of lower-level dominance as part of the Southern Conference — Georgia Southern shares one trait with its Power Five colleagues: For the Eagles, a five-win season is a disaster. So Tyson Summers’ debut in 2016 was, in a word, disastrous. But Summers’ decision to hire Georgia Tech assistant Bryan Cook as his offensive coordinator represents a belated embrace of the same option offense that first lifted the Eagles to national prominence. Better late than never. Look for GSU to return to the top third of the Sun Belt Conference.

3. Northern Illinois (2016 record: 5-7)

The temperature under Rod Carey’s seat went from warm to a rolling boil during the course of the 2016 season, the program’s first outside of the postseason since 2007. With Western Michigan, Toledo, Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan all returning bowl teams from a year ago, it might be a stretch to peg the Huskies to cruise back into the 10-win range. But the baseline should be set at seven or eight wins during the regular season, with at least five coming in conference play.

4. Bowling Green (2016 record: 4-8)

An otherwise horrendous debut for Mike Jinks was salvaged down the stretch, as the Falcons won three in a row to end the regular season after a 1-8 start. That turnaround, even if against some Mid-American Conference bottom-feeders — Akron, Kent State and Buffalo — makes Bowling Green a trendy contender in the East Division.

5. Cincinnati (2016 record: 4-8)

Former Ohio State assistant Luke Fickell takes on an enviable situation at Cincinnati, a program that foundered under Tommy Tuberville but has the talent to quickly reverse a two-year swoon. In this case, Fickell’s single season as the Buckeyes’ interim coach between Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer will provide a valuable blueprint for reaching a roster perhaps demoralized by the sputtering end to Tuberville’s four-year run. Persuading players to buy into his vision for the program will be Fickell’s most important order of business this spring.

6. Utah State (2016 record: 3-9)

Was a 3-9 finish last fall an aberration — a single blip amid an otherwise fruitful period of success — or a sign of things to come? The answer to that question might hinge on how much faith one holds in Matt Wells, who oversaw three bowl trips in a row, including a 19-win stretch from 2013-14, before bottoming out a season ago. Wells’ track record, as well as the Aggies’ recent growth into an annual bowl contender, bodes well for a projected turnaround.

7. Marshall (2016 record: 3-9)

After three seasons in a row with at least 10 wins, Marshall bottomed out with just three wins last fall. That tied the program’s low-water mark since 1983 while raising a question: Can Doc Holliday reverse the slide? Any improvement, if it comes, will be propelled by the projected growth of a defense that ranked among the worst in school history. The talent is there for the defense to improve, and in turn for the Thundering Herd to regain a foothold in Conference USA.

8. Nevada (2016 record: 5-7)

First-year coach Jay Norvell inherits a good situation. Nevada isn’t broken; though the Wolf Pack did notch two losing finishes during Brian Polian’s four-year tenure, those seasons sandwiched back-to-back bowl berths. In other words, look for Nevada to make noise in a muddled Mountain West Conference West Division, where San Diego State remains the front-runner but as many as four or five teams have legitimate postseason aspirations.

9. UCF (2016 record: 6-7)

UCF isn’t set for a huge leap in the American standings: Temple and South Florida are the leaders in the East Division, though the Knights are a clear third in the divisional pecking order, ahead of East Carolina and Cincinnati. Whether this team is set to challenge the Owls and Bulls depends on the development of Scott Frost’s offense, which sputtered at times in his debut season. At worst, however, the Knights seem set for seven wins and a return to the postseason.

10. Miami (Ohio) (2016 record: 6-7)

This is a bit of a layup, since the RedHawks did manage to squeeze into a bowl game — losing a heartbreaker in the St. Petersburg Bowl to Mississippi State — after an 0-6 start. But that’s why this is an easy one: Miami closed so strong that a failure to carry that momentum into the 2017 season would represent one of the bigger surprises in the MAC. There’s ample reason to believe the program has turned a corner under former Notre Dame assistant Chuck Martin.

PROJECTING THE PRESEASON TOP 25