Who'll win? Analyzing pros and cons of the Oscar best picture nominees
Does La La Land have enough musical chutzpah to take the Academy Awards’ big prize? Or might newly crowned Screen Actors Guild winner Hidden Figures be primed to upset in a diverse slate of best picture contenders?
Voters have their ballots and nine quality films to choose from in the category, the winner of which will be named Feb. 26 at the 89th Oscars (ABC, 7 p.m. ET/4 PT). Time to break down what each of the contenders have going for (and against) them:
Oscar nominations 2017: 'Lion,' 'Fences' make list
ARRIVAL
Pros: While Amy Adams was snubbed for best actress, her powerful performance fuels a thought-provoking exploration that garnered eight nominations (tied for second-most in the entire field).
Cons: No sci-fi movie has ever won best picture, so history isn't on its side. Plus, it hasn’t been a front-runner at any point this awards season.
FENCES
Pros: Denzel Washington’s adaptation of the August Wilson play has acting talent in its favor, and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences likes its period pieces.
Cons: The stage-like production lets its players shine, though it lacks a certain cinematic quality that other contenders have.
HACKSAW RIDGE
Pros: Gripping World War II tales have been Oscar favorites before (see: Saving Private Ryan) and this one has some momentum with six nominations.
Cons: Its religious vibe might not sit well with all voters. And it remains to be seen if polarizing director Mel Gibson really is out of the industry doghouse a decade after his anti-Semitic rant and subsequent public fall from grace.
HELL OR HIGH WATER
Pros: The noir Western has won huge support from critics, but even more impressively has managed to maintain momentum since its summer release.
Cons: Only four Westerns have won best picture since the first Oscars in 1929 — most recently, 2007’s No Country for Old Men.
HIDDEN FIGURES
Pros: Arguably, no other film is coming on like the 1960s Space Race drama, with a strong January box office ($104 million and counting), a story about unsung heroes in a period in American history that a lot of folks probably remember fondly, and a win for best ensemble at the SAGs. (Fun fact: Actors comprise the largest branch of Academy voters.)
Cons: The film's late surge, much like that of American Sniper in 2015, might be a little too late in a tough field.
LA LA LAND
Pros: There’s been widespread critical acclaim for the musical, the Oscars adore movies about the movie business, and it tied with All About Eve and Titanic with most nominations ever — and both of those won best picture.
Oscar nominations 2017: Musical 'La La Land' ties record with 14 nods
Cons: Braveheart is the only movie since 1995 to have won best picture and been left out of the Screen Actors Guild best cast category like La La Land was. Also, having spent most of awards season as the darling, there’s a chance it might have peaked too early.
LION
Pros: The journey of an Indian boy to Tasmania and then back as an adult is an unbelievable true story that has an emotional resonance.
Cons: It was an outside contender to join the race in the first place and hasn’t been a real player this awards season.
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
Pros: Strong acting and filmmaking across the board are in its favor, including acting nominations for Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams, and tear-jerking family drama always plays well in this category.
Cons: Controversy around Affleck is starting to bubble up because of past sexual harassment claims. Plus, the movie might be too much of a downer amid a slate of quite a few feel-good favorites.
MOONLIGHT
Pros: Barry Jenkins’ character study of a gay black man tied with Arrival for the second-most nominations (eight), the subject matter is timely and Moonlight seems to have just as passionate a fan base as La La Land.
Cons: It has the lowest box office ($17.8 million) of any best picture nominee and having strong word of mouth might not be enough to best formidable competition.
