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MOVIES
Academy Awards

From locks to long shots: Our best bets on Oscars

Brian Truitt
USA TODAY

The Oscars are the culmination of a long award season for the movie industry and the biggest night in Hollywood’s year.

Alex Hibbert in 'Moonlight.'

Arguably a more exciting day, though? This Tuesday, when Academy Awards nominations are released and everyone, pundits and audiences alike, can stew over which actors, actresses and motion pictures have been honored. Two things are certain: There won’t be a third #OscarsSoWhite situation, with three of the four acting categories almost certain to have non-white representation. And a plethora of chatter, nitpicking the snubs and surprises, will kick off a new period of excitement leading to the Feb. 26 ceremony in Los Angeles.

Everyone’s got predictions, and so do we: Here’s a breakdown of each category with favorites, dark horses and long shots we'd like to see get some love.

BEST PICTURE

Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone fall in love to a jazzy soundtrack in 'La La Land.'

Locks: The romantic musical La La Land and acclaimed indie drama Moonlight probably won’t be giving up their front-runner status anytime soon — La La Land set a new record with seven Golden Globe wins (including best comedy or musical), and Moonlight snagged best drama. Right behind them are the tear-jerking drama Manchester by the Sea, named best film of 2016 by the National Board of Review, and the thought-provoking sci-fi film Arrival.

Jeff Bridges, left, stars with Gil Birmingham as a pair of Texas Rangers in 'Hell or High Water.'

Contenders: Academy members will have five to 10 choices in the category, and in a full field, expect Western noir Hell or High Water, globetrotting coming-of-age journey Lion, World War II film Hacksaw Ridge, 1960s Space Race movie Hidden Figures, religious drama Silence and the '50s-set play adaptation Fences. (Currently on the outside looking in: the historical pieces Jackie, Sully and Loving, plus — somehow — superhero sendup Deadpool.)

Ferdia Walsh-Peelo and Mark McKenna are bandmates in 'Sing Street.'

For their consideration: Two musically tinged flicks might be too many in such a limited field, but deserving to be in there is Sing Street, John Carney’s 1980s-set feel-good coming-of-age story about a boy, a girl and the ramshackle yet talented band he puts together to impress her.

Three films break from pack as best picture front-runners

BEST DIRECTOR

Director Damien Chazelle and Emma Stone on the set of 'La La Land.'

Locks: Their movies are favorites and so are they: You can bet on seeing La La Land wunderkind Damien Chazelle and Moonlight main man Barry Jenkins, whose signature visions fuel each movie's run to Oscar. Chazelle has already won best director at the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice awards, and both men have been nominated by the Directors Guild of America for its top honor.

Amy Adams and director Denis Villeneuve on the set of 'Arrival.'

Contenders: DGA picks typically dominate the best director category, so Denis Villeneuve (Arrival), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) and Garth Davis (Lion) are all in the mix. Plus, don’t forget about the veterans: Mel Gibson was a Golden Globe nominee for Hacksaw Ridge, and Silence director Martin Scorsese is the most nominated living director (with eight nominations for directing and one win).

Jessica Barden and Colin Farrell in Yorgos Lanthimos' 'The Lobster.'

For their consideration: With the very oddball The Lobster, director Yorgos Lanthimos has masterfully made a singular artistic treat by creating an immersive and often funny dystopian world where people find love or else are turned into animals.

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck plays a handyman forced to confront a past tragedy in 'Manchester by the Sea.'

Locks: Casey Affleck, with honors from various critics’ societies, the National Board of Review and the Golden Globes, is a clear favorite to not only get in but to win his first Oscar as Manchester by the Sea’s emotionally rocked handyman. Armed with La La Land’s momentum and a Globe win under his belt, Ryan Gosling is almost a sure thing for his jazz aficionado, as is Denzel Washington for his self-directed Fences tour de force playing an imposing 1950s suburban patriarch.

Andrew Garfield stars as a World War II medic who won't touch a gun in 'Hacksaw Ridge.'

Contenders: Three other Globe nominees will tussle for the final two slots, including Andrew Garfield as Hacksaw Ridge’s heroic conscientious objector, Joel Edgerton as the male lead of Loving’s interracial love story and Viggo Mortensen as the quirky survivalist dad of Captain Fantastic. Don’t count out Tom Hanks, who brings his steady charm to the title hero pilot of Sully.

Lewis MacDougall stars as a boy who has to take care of his dying mother in 'A Monster Calls.'

For their consideration: So what if he could be Hanks’ grandkid? As a boy dealing with a dying mother, Irish teenager Lewis MacDougall gives the weepy fantasy A Monster Calls the majority of its poignancy and depth.

Who are this year's Oscar dark horses?

BEST ACTRESS

Emma Stone is an Oscar favorite for her role as an aspiring actress in 'La La Land.'

Locks: Coming off a best actress Golden Globe, Emma Stone is the aspiring movie starlet at the heart of La La Land. Amy Adams, as the expert linguist dealing with an alien language in Arrival, has been nominated five times before; many observers think she’s due. Jackie is in essence a one-woman show for Natalie Portman, playing iconic Jacqueline Kennedy. And Isabelle Huppert storms into this talented pack after a noteworthy Globe win for Elle, a thriller featuring the French actress' multilayered performance as a vengeful rape victim.

Meryl Streep is the title wannabe opera singer of 'Florence Foster Jenkins.'

Contenders: The problem with having a stacked category? Not much room for anyone else. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women’s single mom, is like Adams overdue — with four nominations and counting — and Meryl Streep’s passionate anti-Trump Globes speech might have reminded voters of her work as Florence Foster Jenkins. And if the category breaks for diversity with its last slot, there’s Ruth Negga, female lead of the civil rights romance Loving, and Taraji P. Henson, playing unsung mathematician Katherine Johnson in Hidden Figures.

Susan Sarandon stars as a widow moving into a new phase of her life in 'The Meddler.'

For their consideration: Susan Sarandon had one of her finest in The Meddler as a sweetly overbearing widow trying to remain part of her daughter’s life and find love in later life.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Juan (Mahershala Ali) takes young Chiron (Alex Hibbert) under his wing in 'Moonlight.'

Locks: Mahershala Ali, with a noteworthy turn as a drug-dealing paternal figure in Moonlight, is still the odds-on favorite, despite losing out on a Golden Globe. As a teen coming to grips with his father’s death in Manchester by the Sea, Lucas Hedges took the Critics’ Choice Award for best young performer and is a strong candidate here. So, too, is veteran Jeff Bridges for playing an aging Texas Ranger on the hunt for bank robbers in Hell or High Water.

Dev Patel stars as a young man who yearns to find a way back to his true home in 'Lion.'

Contenders: Globe nominees Dev Patel and Hugh Grant are in the hunt, Patel for Lion’s central journeyman and Grant as the philandering husband of Florence Foster Jenkins. Even though Aaron Taylor-Johnson won the supporting actor Globe for Nocturnal Animals, Michael Shannon has better Oscar chances from that film due to his eccentric cop role. And Japanese actor Issey Ogata spurs conflict as Jesuit priests’ feudal foe in Silence.

John Carroll Lynch (left) and Nick Offerman star as Mac and Dick McDonald, the real founders of McDonald's, in 'The Founder.'

For their consideration: Michael Keaton may have the showiest role in the Ray Kroc biopic The Founder, but Nick Offerman steals the movie as the grumpier — and more endearing — of the two McDonald brothers swindled out of a fast-food fortune.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis (center) stars alongside Russell Hornsby, Denzel Washington and Stephen McKinley Henderson in 'Fences.'

Locks: Just as last year was Leonardo DiCaprio’s to finally take home his Oscar, 2017 is looking like the winning season of Viola Davis, who garnered a Globe for her powerful performance as a repressed '50s housewife in Fences. Michelle Williams isn’t in many scenes in Manchester by the Sea but she owns her limited time as a broken New England woman, and Naomie Harris similarly impresses as the drug-addicted mom of Moonlight’s main character.

Dorothy Vaughan (Octavia Spencer) learns the ins and outs of NASA's new IBM computer.

Contenders: Most likely this field will mirror that of the Globes, with Nicole Kidman (as an adoptive mother in Lion) and Octavia Spencer (playing the tech-savviest lady at NASA in Hidden Figures) filling out the category. Ready to sneak in: Spencer’s co-star Janelle Monáe (as Hidden Figures’ young engineer) and Greta Gerwig (as a cancer-stricken photographer in 20th Century Women).

Gugu Mbatha-Raw stars as a junior lobbyist in 'Miss Sloane.'

For their consideration: While the political thriller Miss Sloane has been devoid of much lobbying power in the Oscar race, Gugu Mbatha-Raw is a standout as a naive Washington newcomer whose own tragic past involving gun violence puts her at the center of a battle for tougher weapons regulation.

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