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Rafael Nadal

Analysis: What Novak Djokovic's loss means to men's draw

Sandra Harwitt
Special for USA TODAY Sports

MELBOURNE — Whenever a top player gets whacked early from the draw of a Grand Slam the great rush is on to figure out how that loss factors into the ongoing proceedings. When that player is the two-time defending champion and former world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, interest is even more pronounced as to what will happen now in that half of the Australian Open draw.

Rafael Nadal of Spain celebrates after victory in his second round match against Marcos Baghdatis of Cyprus during the 2017 Australian Open on Jan. 19.

That Djokovic departed so early as a result of a chilling 7-6 (8), 5-7, 2-6, 7-6 (5), 6-4 second round upset on the racket of unheralded Denis Istomin of Uzbekistan has briefly caused numbness around town. But by tomorrow all the soothsayers will be trying to work out how it will all shake out.

While not the highest seed remaining in that half of the draw, it’s hard not to pay the most attention to ninth seed Rafael Nadal, who sits in the top quarter of the bottom section.

There are those who would say the 30-year-old Nadal is tough to look at as he hasn’t had smooth-sailing the last few years because of multiple injuries. And it’s true that the last major he won was back in 2014 when he picked up his record ninth French Open trophy.

But Nadal, a 14-time Grand Slam champion, is sounding surprisingly strong and confident since he arrived in Melbourne, and he won his first two rounds in comfortable straight-set performances.

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If Nadal is as healthy as he confesses, his experience as a multiple Grand Slam champion, a distinction not one other player remaining in the bottom half possesses, has to speak volumes on his behalf. It’s worth noting that this is the only Grand Slam Nadal hasn’t won at least twice in his career, with his lone victory having come in 2009.

If you look beyond Nadal, it’s fair to say that the bottom half of the draw is peppered with a great deal of talented players  awaiting their possible turn at glory.

In Nadal’s quarter one could look to sixth seed Gael Monfils of France, one of the best athletes in the game. Monfils has been in two career Grand Slam semifinals and was a quarterfinalist here last year. The problem with Monfils is that when he gets down to the clutch matches he tends to fizzle out.

The hard-serving third seed Milos Raonic of Canada, who reached his first Grand Slam final at Wimbledon last year, also appears primed to win a major and having Djokovic out of the way has to be a mental plus. But there’s a long road ahead, and a possible quarterfinal outing against Nadal, Monfils, or possibly even Nadal’s next opponent, 24th-ranked teen Alexander Zverev of Germany, who has been touted as a hot prospect since his junior days.

In the bottom quarter that was gutted by Djokovic’s removal, there are a few standout names as well. One of those, however, isn’t Istomin, no matter how well he played to topple the former No. 1 from the draw.

The eighth seed  Dominic Thiem of Austria, 15th seed Grigor Dimitrov of Bulgaria, and 18th seed Richard Gasquet are all previous Grand Slam semifinalists. It would seem that Gasquet and Dimitrov’s game style is probably better-suited to the hard courts here in Melbourne than Thiem’s.

One player who often doesn’t get enough attention is 11th seed David Goffin of Belgium. While diminutive in stature, and with his best Grand Slam result a quarterfinal appearance at last year’s French Open, he did journey to the round-of-16 in Melbourne a year ago, too. He’s a steady and smart player and he’s capable of blunting a bigger server without fear.

Another name to give serious pause to in that bottom quarter is 37-year-old Ivo Karlovic of Croatia, the 20th seed at this Australian Open. Forget the age concern — in the opening round he went five sets, 85 games and posted 75 aces against Horacio Zeballos of Argentina. On Thursday, he didn’t look fatigued in taking a three-set win over Australian wildcard recipient Andrew Whittington. If the 6’11’ Karlovic’s serve is booming it takes a prominent returner — not just someone who can get the ball back — to consistently return with conviction against him.

In the big picture, Djokovic’s early exit provides a number of key players with an opportunity to journey to the semifinals. Now the question is who will have the luck, as well as the gumption, to step up and take their chance.

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