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Academy Awards

Who are this year's Oscar dark horses?

Andrea Mandell
USA TODAY
Almost a year after its release, 'Deadpool' has Oscar on the brain.

Every year, Oscar voters throw out a curveball or two in the nominations. Last year, the honor went to Mark Rylance, who shocked Oscarologists by picking up a best supporting actor nomination for Bridge of Spies — and then won the statue on the big night without campaigning. In 2012, it was Bridesmaids, the raunchy R-rated comedy that scored a nomination for best original screenplay — an eyebrow raiser, considering that the Academy Awards aren't known for giving funny films their due. Whose name could surprise when nominations are announced Jan. 24? We explore this year's dark horses.

All eyes are suddenly on Aaron Taylor-Johnson in the best supporting actor race.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson

The British actor plays a Texas psychopath in Nocturnal Animals, and since his surprise Golden Globe win for supporting actor, the heat is on. "Aaron Taylor-Johnson is definitely coming on strong right now," says Dave Karger, special correspondent for the movie website IMDb.com. "The win at the Golden Globes, plus the BAFTA nomination, really mean that he’s the guy from that movie with the best shot at a nomination, not Michael Shannon like everybody initially thought."

Could Isabelle Huppert edge out Natalie Portman and Emma Stone in the best actress race?

Isabelle Huppert

The acclaimed French actress turned many a critic's head in Elle, and insiders say she could end up with a best actress nomination. "She pulls off an upset against Natalie Portman at the Globes and she’s a serious threat at the Oscars, even to win," says Tom O'Neil, founder of awards prediction site GoldDerby.com. "It’s suddenly a highly contested race."

Meryl Streep

It's no secret that Oscar voters love Streep, but her leading performance in Florence Foster Jenkins seemed to have slipped off the actress short list — until she criticized Donald Trump in the Globes speech heard 'round the world. "Suddenly, she is a force here," says O'Neil. And since Streep's televised moment happened while Oscar ballots were out, that could change everything. "Hollywood could not only rally behind her for the nomination, they could rally behind her for the win," he says.

Surprise: 2016's best actress race shows real power

How far will 'Hidden Figures' go in the Oscar race?

'Hidden Figures'

Most analysts agree there are four sure bets in the picture race: La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Arrival. But Hidden Figures could be the new American Sniper after winning the box office. "Hidden Figures is the one movie that is most on the bubble right now," says Karger, calling the movie "a real player" because of a Screen Actors Guild nomination for best cast, plus Producers Guild and Writers Guild nominations. Many consider Octavia Spencer a lock for a supporting actress nomination, but could Taraji P. Henson break into best actress? Due to the film's success (and her character's impassioned Oscar-bait speech inside NASA's all-white walls), "she could go along for the ride," says O'Neil.

'Deadpool' Oscar talk is getting serious after Producers Guild nomination

'Deadpool'

Ryan Reynolds has launched an impressive late-game Oscar campaign, and his budget superhero flick recently earned a spot on the Producers Guild list of the year's best films. But Karger cautions to remember what happened with big-budget spectacles like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and the Harry Potter franchise, both of which failed to nab best picture nods. "There is a history of blockbusters making it into the Producers Guild top 10 but not getting an Oscar nomination," says Karger.

Will the Academy welcome Mel Gibson back for 'Hacksaw Ridge'?

Mel Gibson

Talk about “a literal wild card," says O'Neil. Hacksaw Ridge is "full of patriotic spirit and religious passion. ... That’s usually a formula for Oscar bait." But is Hollywood ready to forgive the star's troubled past by nominating him for best director? "That’s what the Oscars are all about, bestowing hugs, who we love, who we don’t," says O'Neil.

Hugh Grant

Will Streep's screen husband in Florence Foster Jenkins make the cut? He's "vulnerable," says O'Neil, noting Nocturnal Animals' Michael Shannon, Hidden Figures' Kevin Costner or Hell or High Water's Ben Foster could take his spot in supporting actor, while Karger points out that he'd have to edge in among surer bets like Moonlight's Mahershala Ali, Hell or High Water's Jeff Bridges and Lion's Dev Patel.

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