Hall of Fame case: Vladimir Guerrero has the numbers to match his flair
When Vladimir Guerrero sustained a foot fracture that delayed the start to his rookie season in 1997, his then-manager Felipe Alou of the Montreal Expos lamented that the injury would deprive National League fans from seeing the emerging talent.
Guerrero indeed proved to be a sight to behold.
Through much of a 16-year career spent mostly with the Expos and Los Angeles Angels, Guerrero was the epitome of the player worth the price of admission all by himself, displaying a baton twirler’s skill with the bat, titanic power, outstanding running speed and a rocket arm. Half the fun of watching Guerrero play was the expectation he’d do something never seen before, like the time he slapped a pitch that bounced in front of the plate for a single.
But despite his wild-swinging ways, he was far from a novelty act. Even as knee woes and age sapped Guerrero’s mobility in his later years, he remained one of the game’s most fearsome and accomplished hitters, batting .300 with 29 homers and 115 RBI in his penultimate season.
The case for: Guerrero’s combination of a .318 career average and 449 home runs is matched by only five players in the game’s history, all of them immortal: Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams and Jimmie Foxx. None of them comes close to Guerrero’s 181 career steals, an indication of the breadth of his game in his prime. In 2002, he fell a home run short of the 40-40 mark, and twice he achieved the 30-30 standard.
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Between 1998 and 2007, Guerrero never batted below .307 or had an OPS lower than .934. His lifetime OPS of .931 would rank 18th among current Hall of Famers, three points ahead of Hank Aaron.
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Though underpublicized as a result of playing half his career in Montreal and refusing to speak to the news media in English, the Dominican-born outfielder made nine All-Star teams, was named MVP in 2004 – his first season with the Angels – and finished in the top four of the voting three other times. He also won eight Silver Slugger awards and drove in at least 100 runs 10 times.
The case against: A risk-taking outfielder who liked to show off his potent arm, Guerrero made an inordinate amount of errors, reaching double digits six years in a row and leading the league’s right fielders in that department nine times. During his final three seasons he was mostly a DH. Guerrero was also an indiscriminate baserunner, succeeding in only 66% of his steal attempts.
Though he helped the Angels win the AL West crown five of his six years in Anaheim, Guerrero lacks shiny October credentials that could boost his case. He had just two home runs and a .664 OPS in 44 postseason games.
Lookalikes: Hall of Famers Jim Rice, Willie Stargell, Billy Williams and Duke Snider come up in baseball-reference’s 10-name ranking of similar offensive players, and the list also includes future shoo-in Miguel Cabrera and current top candidate Jeff Bagwell. Guerrero’s 209 score in Bill James’ Hall of Fame monitor puts him well above the 130 threshold for virtual locks. However, he falls short by a surprising amount in Jay Jaffe’s JAWS gauge, which sets a relative threshold for election at 58.1 points for right fielders. Guerrero checks in 21st overall at 50.2, although the author concedes he will likely get into the Hall at some point.
X-factors: Few players evoked so much enjoyment watching them perform as Guerrero, who clearly passed the eye test when it came to a Hall of Fame talent. He also has the traditional stats on his side, especially the rare pairing of power with supreme hitting skill. Those elements supersede so-so peripheral stats in other aspects of his game. Guerrero was also known as a likable if quiet teammate, especially beloved by players who shared his Latin roots.
Consensus: This is Guerrero’s first year on the ballot as he seeks to become the first Dominican position player to enter the Hall, where he would join countrymen Juan Marichal and Pedro Martinez, both pitchers. Guerrero may not be accorded the special honor of first-ballot induction, what with Bagwell, Tim Raines and Trevor Hoffman on the doorstep this year, but he will likely be welcomed into Cooperstown in the next few tries.
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