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Grammy Awards

Grammy 2017 analysis: Can Adele say 'Hello' to record of the year?

Patrick Ryan
USA TODAY
Adele is back in the running for record of the year with 'Hello,' after winning the award in 2011 for 'Rolling in the Deep.'

As is the case in three of four key categories at the 2017 Grammy Awards, record of the year should ultimately come down to Adele or Beyoncé.

Of the two pop powerhouses, Adele seems to have the upper hand with her lovelorn ballad Hello, off third album 25. The towering comeback single landed at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart last fall, where it reigned for 10 consecutive weeks on its way to selling 4.8 million downloads to date, according to Nielsen Music. Record of the year tends to favor enduring mainstream hits — just look at recent winners Mark Ronson's Uptown Funk, Sam Smith's Stay with Me and Daft Punk's Get Lucky — and the British diva has the bonus of past success in the category. (She was nominated in 2009 for Chasing Pavements and triumphed two years later with Rolling in the Deep.)

Beyoncé, Drake, Kanye West lead 2017 Grammy nominations

Beyoncé's Formation could be a tougher sell. Although it's arguably the better-produced and -performed song (both of which are grounds for a record-of-the-year win), the Lemonade single never reached the heights of Hello on radio or the sales chart. (It peaked at No. 10 on the Hot 100 and has sold 775,000 downloads to date.) The unofficial Black Lives Matter anthem also stirred controversy this year for its music video and Super Bowl halftime performance, which many believed to be anti-law enforcement. But if voters feel inclined to honor a song with greater social resonance and pop-culture ubiquity, Formation could very well eke out a win.

Rihanna and Drake are contenders for 'Anti' single 'Work.'

In the unlikely case that Hello and Formation split votes, predicting a winner gets dicier. Lukas Graham's breakout 7 Years, a treacly rumination on growing up, is more likely to be recognized for its lyrics, making it a stronger song-of-the-year contender (where it's also nominated). Twenty One Pilots' Stressed Out was inescapable on radio for the better half of the year, although the elusive rap/rock duo may still be too unknown to most voters to garner much support.

Which leaves us with Rihanna's Work featuring Drake: one of 2016's longest-running hits and an infectious return to the Barbadian singer's island roots. With the on-and-off lovebirds tied for eight nominations, a shared win in one of the Grammys' top categories would be a fitting cap to the biggest year of their respective careers.

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