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American dream

Is the American Dream dead?

Nathan Bomey, USA TODAY

If the American dream is defined as earning more money than your parents, today's young adults are just as likely to have a nightmare as they are to achieve their dream.

Only 50% of people born in the 1980's are making more than their parents, compared to 90% of children born in 1940, according to a new study by researchers at Stanford University, Harvard University and the University of California-Berkeley.

Millennials have begun their 45+-year rat race.

The study concludes that income inequality is the primary reason why many young people are left behind. Slower rates of economic growth are a secondary factor, according to the findings.

"These results imply that reviving the 'American Dream' of high rates of absolute mobility would require economic growth that is spread more broadly across the income distribution," the researchers concluded.

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Upward income mobility is diminishing more rapidly for certain regional populations and demographics. The study notes the largest declines are concentrated "in the industrial Midwest states such as Michigan and Illinois," where high-paying manufacturing jobs have declined considerably.

By contrast, of the 50 states South Dakota and North Dakota are holding up better than the rest. South Dakotans and North Dakotans born in 1980 are 62.3% and 59.4% as likely to make more than their parents.

Overall, young men's prospects are worsening at a quickening pace than young women's. Sons born in 1984 are only 41% likely to earn more than their fathers, compared to 95% of sons born in 1940.

Still, they're better off than daughters born in 1984, who are only 26% likely to earn more than their fathers, down from 43% of daughters born in 1940. The study did not compare daughters to their mothers.

If current income distribution was equivalent to the breakdown for the 1940 generation, then 80% of today's young adults would be earning more than their parents.

Alternatively, if gross domestic product had maintained the torrid rates of their parents' generation, 62% of people born in 1980 would be earning more than their parents.

"The key point is that reviving the 'American Dream' of high rates of absolute mobility would require more broadly shared economic growth rather than just higher GDP growth rates," the study concludes.

The study was conducted by Raj Chetty and David Grusky of Stanford, Maximilian Hell and Nathaniel Hendren of Harvard, and Jimmy Narang of Berkeley.

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Follow USA TODAY reporter Nathan Bomey on Twitter @NathanBomey.

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