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Football Four

Where we stand on college football coaching hires and firings

Dan Wolken
USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota’s announcement Monday that Tracy Claeys will be back in 2017 was further confirmation that the coaching carousel will be relatively calm this year barring a late surprise, particularly at the top level. Only four schools in the Power Five conferences have fired their coaches (including Baylor strictly for off-the-field reasons), with Oregon’s decision on Mark Helfrich still pending.

Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Tracy Claeys looks on during the fourth quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium.

Though that’s not necessarily a major departure from the norm — only three Power Five schools fired their coaches in 2013 and four in 2014 — it is a decrease from the seven who were let go last season. And it challenges the conventional wisdom that schools are so flush with cash and unreasonable expectations these days that coaches’ jobs are in jeopardy from the minute they arrive on campus.

Tom Herman says he's ready for pressure of Texas

In part because of massive guaranteed money owed to coaches and the lack of home-run candidates to fill openings, a long list of schools that could have made changes decided to instead stand pat, including Texas A&M, UCLA, Arizona State, Texas Tech and Connecticut.

LSU's Ed Orgeron has helped the Tigers weather a coaching change.

Moreover, Texas pulling Tom Herman from Houston and LSU staying in-house with Ed Orgeron severely limits the number of dominoes that could have caused an industry-wide shakeup. Though a potential Oregon coaching hire could produce some fallout, it appears there will be precious few opportunities for promising coaches such as Western Kentucky’s Jeff Brohm, South Florida’s Willie Taggart, Temple’s Matt Rhule, Tulsa’s Philip Montgomery, Troy’s Neal Brown and Appalachian State’s Scott Satterfield to move into Power Five jobs.

Here is where things stand now, as always with insight from various industry insiders who prefer to speak on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions.

OREGON

As USA TODAY Sports reported late Saturday night, Oregon officials were hoping not to have to fire Mark Helfrich but had moved in that direction following a loss to Oregon State and already laid the groundwork for a coaching search that would follow. Oregon’s silence on Sunday complicated the timing and did not reflect well on athletics director Rob Mullens, who showed a stunning lack of leadership by failing to inform Helfrich of his fate Sunday before his staff went on the road recruiting.

Oregon, expecting to fire Mark Helfrich, begins search for next head coach

If Oregon was truly intent on keeping Helfrich, there is no reason it couldn’t have informed him Sunday rather than wait for Mullens to return from Dallas, where he has duties with the College Football Playoff selection committee.

When/if Oregon opens, the expectation is that Western Michigan’s P.J. Fleck and Boise State’s Bryan Harsin would both be prime candidates. But don’t be surprised if Oregon pursues splashier names such as Penn State’s James Franklin and North Carolina’s Larry Fedora, who are both at Nike-affiliated schools. There also are whispers that Florida’s Jim McElwain could be intrigued by the opportunity to return to the Pacific Northwest, close to where he went to college and started his coaching career at Eastern Washington. Despite winning SEC East titles in his first two years, McElwain has been a bit under-appreciated by the Florida fan base and just got a new athletics director in Gainesville.

NOTRE DAME

Though Brian Kelly said unequivocally that he would be back in South Bend and has publicly had the support of athletics director Jack Swarbrick, school officials were furious about reports over the weekend that his representatives are exploring coaching options for Kelly outside of Notre Dame. Mad enough to just go ahead and fire Kelly? Almost certainly not, but Notre Dame staff members have privately expressed some concern about the situation.

Brian Kelly says he'll 'absolutely' be back at Notre Dame. But will he?

The tension between Notre Dame, Kelly and his agent Trace Armstrong dates to last season when, according to a person with knowledge of the situation, there was at least a conversation on behalf of Kelly with Southern Cal, who ultimately gave the job to Clay Helton. After that, Notre Dame awarded Kelly a six-year extension, and you can’t blame the school for being upset that its loyalty is being repaid less than a year later by rumors that he’s looking to leave.

HOUSTON

Tom Herman’s departure opens up one of the most attractive jobs outside the Power Five, where three of the last four coaches (Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin and Herman) all won big and moved on. Houston mega-booster Tilman Fertitta, who made his fortune in the chain restaurant business and also owns the Golden Nugget hotel and casino in Las Vegas, is going to be a major factor in the search and has the resources to at least get the attention of some big names.

Washington is about attention to detail, not attention

If any current Power Five coach is likely to take the Houston job, it’s West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen, who has personal ties to the city, worked at the school in 2008-09 and didn’t get a contract extension from new athletics director Shane Lyons after last season. With Holgorsen going 9-2 this year, he suddenly has major leverage and it will be interesting to see how much West Virginia is willing to spend on a coach who was on the hot seat to start this season.

Another name floating around is Washington State’s Mike Leach, though that seems a bit farther fetched. Continuity could also be a factor, as both defensive coordinator Todd Orlando and offensive coordinator Major Applewhite would like to be considered for the job.

PURDUE

Things appear to be on hold, at least until this weekend. Fleck and his representatives have made it clear he won’t entertain conversations about other jobs until after the MAC championship game on Friday, so it makes sense for Purdue to wait. With the job market not nearly as robust as previous years, Purdue could end up being Fleck’s best Power Five option — and it’s not completely clear he would even take it, as he could return to Western Michigan for one more year and see what the landscape looks like next December.

If Purdue and Fleck aren’t a match, the school already has interviewed several others. Among the more prominent names in the mix are former LSU coach Les Miles, Air Force coach Troy Calhoun and Illinois State coach Brock Spack, a Purdue alum.

BAYLOR

It’s possible nothing gets finalized at Baylor until early next week after the current team finishes its season, but SMU’s Chad Morris remains solidly atop a group of the usual suspects who have ties to the state of Texas such as Fedora and California’s Sonny Dykes. Someone like Rhule could be intriguing to Baylor athletics director Mack Rhoades, but concerns about the cultural fit of a Northeasterner who does not have experience recruiting the state of Texas are very much part of the calculus.

Baylor's Jim Grobe has no plans to coach after this season

GROUP OF FIVE 

Florida Atlantic opening up will undoubtedly attract the interest of several high-level assistants, as the school has a terrific recruiting footprint and good facilities relative to the rest of Conference USA. Athletics director Pat Chun has also committed to increase the salary pool for the head coach and assistants.

Ohio State co-defensive coordinator Luke Fickell, Florida defensive coordinator Geoff Collins, Michigan quarterbacks coach/passing game coordinator Jedd Fisch, Florida State tight ends coach Tim Brewster and Alabama offensive line coach Mario Cristobal are expected to be candidates, but there could also be a surprise or two in the mix.

Florida Atlantic fires Charlie Partridge after three seasons

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