No major pro sports league has more parity than the NFL. It’s a hard-capped institution that keeps teams on a relatively even playing field. The rare exceptions often feature elite coaching and quarterback combinations that create staying power.

Winning is hard. The 49ers know that as well as any organization in the sport. They have five Super Bowl titles, tied for the second most in history, and are coming off one of the worst three-year stretches the franchise has ever seen. They know the highs and are too familiar with the lows, particularly lately.

Which, oddly enough, puts them in an enviable position heading into 2017 as they lay the foundation for their new regime. First-time coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch are co-piloting a massive overhaul that included turning over more than half the 90-man roster this offseason.

That upheaval has many believing San Francisco’s in for another rough year, akin to the last two under the overmatched Jim Tomsula and short-sighted Chip Kelly.

It’s an enviable position because the 49ers are playing with house money heading into the start of training camp this week. Players report Thursday with the first practice expected on Friday.

They aren’t burdened with the weight of expectations like, say, the final iteration of Jim Harbaugh’s club in 2014, which had arguably the best roster of the bombastic coach’s tenure and sky-high hopes entering the first year in a new stadium. It turned out to be the start of a drastic downtown undercut by back channel bickering and behind-the-scenes tension.

These 49ers are expected to stink, which tends to motivate players who fly under the radar while fans and pundits write them off in April, making them an afterthought months before a snap is taken.

Take our friends at USA TODAY, for example, who pegged San Francisco to finish 2-14 for a second-straight season in their projections released this week.

From author Nate Davis:

Even if the records match, they should be a better team than Chip Kelly’s 2-14 club from 2016. But the talent base is largely deficient and so is the players’ familiarity with what new coaches want them to do on either side of the ball.

Davis is correct about the roster. The 49ers are starting journeyman backup Brian Hoyer under center and have a mostly unproven group of play-makers that will rely on Shanahan’s play-calling acumen to get maximized.

Defensively, San Francisco’s coming off one of its worst seasons ever, allowing an absurd 2,654 yards on the ground (165 per game) while dealing with significant injuries and absences from key players like NaVorro Bowman (Achilles), Arik Armstead (shoulder), Ian Williams (ankle), Eric Reid (biceps) and Aaron Lynch (suspension, ankle).

With hindsight as a helpful tool, it’s clear the 49ers should have moved on from general manager Trent Baalke far sooner than they did.

Baalke received credit for assembling Harbaugh’s club that went to three straight conference title games and appeared in a Super Bowl. But, in reality, a number of stars from those teams were already there before Baalke took the top job, all hitting their primes at once, and were finally given a capable coaching staff willing to form the right kind of identity.

Throw in a innovative – and now, stale – offensive attack highlighting Colin Kaepernick’s athleticism, and the 49ers were a contender to be reckoned with.

The team heading into 2017 is starting from scratch with an unfamiliar group of players. And when it comes to projecting, unfamiliarity is a tool that often molds low expectations.

Take 2011, Harbaugh’s first season, for example. The 49ers were coming off a 6-10 finish and expected to finish near the bottom of the NFC West yet again. But San Francisco wound up going 13-3, taking a huge jump from bad to elite with a slingshot of enthusiasm brought in by Harbaugh (and a really, really talented roster).

That’s not to say these 49ers are going to be contenders in the NFC this season. Far from it. The roster is at an entirely different level. But the point remains: Pre-training camp expectations, if used correctly by the right group of players, coaches and executives, can lead to surprising results.

Finishing with two wins should be considered a disaster for the 49ers, even it means giving them a draft pick high enough next spring to land their eventual franchise quarterback.

Shanahan is one of the best offensive coaches in football and was arguably the most qualified candidate during the annual hiring cycle last winter. Inheriting a two-win team and winning two games in his first year would be a bad, bad start.

The defense, while young, should be far better than last season – if key pieces can stay on the field. Reuben Foster might be the team’s most talented player, joining DeForest Buckner, who might be on track for All-Pro nods sooner rather than later. Arik Armstead entering Year 3 could carve out a more comfortable role with less on his plate thanks to Buckner’s development and the addition of third-overall pick Solomon Thomas.

If things break right, and Shanahan has the club punching above its weight, the 49ers should hover around the five-to-seven win threshold this season, particularly with the NFC West teetering on the edge of downfall. The Seahawks have been a never-ending soap opera, the Cardinals are a Carson Palmer injury (gulp) away from mediocrity and the Rams are still the Rams.

All that is a long-winded way of warning against the unease of low expectations – and offering the reminder that NFL parity can drive bottom feeders higher than anyone might expect.