Battle for NBA MVP: Is it LeBron's to lose?
The Frontrunnersthe outside threats;the long-shots
If there’s one thing we know about this coming NBA season and the MVP race that sparks so many months of debate, it’s that the incumbent is the underdog – again.
Stephen Curry, the Golden State Warriors star who defended his individual crown in historic fashion during their73-win season, has quite the uphill battle ahead if he’s going to become the first back-to-back-to-back winner since Larry Bird in 1986. Even if Kevin Durant hadn’t come to town, Curry would have been up against the pro sports phenomenon known as “voter fatigue.” Add in the fact that there are now two former MVPs and five former All-Stars on Golden State’s roster to share that spotlight, and it will be tougher than ever for Curry to hold onto the coveted Maurice Podoloff trophy.
And, of course, there’s this: the number of MVP-caliber talents in the league right now is downright silly. Alas, here’s a power-rankings style perspective on the MVP race from this vantage point.
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LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
When it comes to the MVP discussion and advantageous starting points, it always helps to be widely seen by the voters (media members) as the game’s best player. And in the wake of James’ spectacular Finals showing over Curry’s Warriors – first player to lead both Finals teams in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks; first team to overcome a 3-1 deficit en route to the title – it appears he has recaptured that unofficial status. The appreciation for James’ unmatched value – on both ends of the floor, and to the Cavs’ franchise at large – appears to be at an all-time high. All of this creates quite the foundation for a fifth MVP before the real games have even begun.
There was a time not long ago, remember, when this was his award: four trophies in five seasons from 2008 to 2013. James, who has a keen awareness of the league’s history, knows that he would join a special group by winning one more (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s six tops them all, with Michael Jordan and Bill Russell winning five). There are subtle differences in the Cavs’ landscape that could aid his cause, too, what with their various controversies seeming to have subsided (the David Blatt-to-Tyronn Lue saga, looming questions about whether Kyrie Irving was a worthy co-star, James sub-tweeting teammates last season). Less drama, in other words, and more of peak James as he tries to maintain his place atop the superstar totem pole.
Durant
The Warriors stars may cancel each other out in the end, but that premise overlooks one key fact: they may wind up with the league’s best record, which may well inspire voters to lean that way. Since 2002, the MVP has come from the best regular season team in nine of 14 seasons.
The Durant narrative is the most believable, not only because of his talents but because it his new Warriors teammates seem hell-bent on empowering him to be at his alpha-male best. Draymond Green is constantly in his ear about being more aggressive, and coach Steve Kerr seems more than ready to give him a permanent green light. Curry, meanwhile, has spent much of the preseason yielding to Durant as he finds his way.
Which is where the Warriors’ embarrassment of riches gets even more interesting: while Durant’s preseason scoring pace (37.9 points per 48 minutes) is well above Curry’s (30.9), it’s well below that of two-time All-Star Klay Thompson (43.6, third overall in the NBA). So maybe they’ll cancel each other out after all …
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
In a vacuum, Westbrook is capable of winning the MVP award whenever he pleases – let alone ‘Angry Russ’ who was scorned by Durant and now finds himself as the face of the franchise. We saw two seasons ago what he could do without Durant (a league-leading 28.1 points, 8.6 assists and 7.3 rebounds per game when Durant played just 27 games because of a broken right foot), and he has now stockpiled 29 triple-doubles in the past two seasons (only Jason Kidd, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Fat Lever and LeBron James have tallied more than 29 career triple-doubles since 1983, according to basketball-reference.com).
But context matters, and so there’s this necessary qualifier: the Thunder have to be really good for him to have a real shot at it. In this post-Durant world in which they lost not only the 2013-14 MVP but longtime forward Serge Ibaka, they need to be a top four team in the Western Conference. There’s far more mystery about that question than there is Westbrook and what he’ll bring to the table.
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Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Curry’s dominance skewed everything last season, meaning Leonard (who finished second in voting) wasn’t truly a threat to win the award. But if his recent history of rapid improvement repeats itself, the Spurs’ latest stoic superstar may wind up being the guy smiling for those MVP pictures (or at least agreeing to be photographed).
His defensive prowess speaks for itself, what with the back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards on his resume’ and the way opposing offenses steer clear of him like NFL teams did Deion Sanders back in the day. It’s the other end where it gets interesting, as the spike in Leonard’s scoring these past two seasons has been impressive: from 12.8 points per game in 2013-14 to 16.5 in 2014-15 to 21.2 last season.
Curry
You’d think we’d learned our lesson by this point, right? A year ago, if you remember, very few prognosticators – or general managers, even – expected Curry to do what he did. Then he went out and shattered his own single-season three-point record (402 in all) while playing an intoxicating brand of basketball that was so distinct and dominant that it enthralled the masses. Out of respect, it simply has to be said that he is fully capable of doing it again.
But on this Warriors team, it seems more likely that he plays the kind of selfless role that leads to his individual stats suffering (14.2 points per game so far in the preseason, third on the Warriors). But know this: Curry’s offensive rating – which quantifies the team’s scoring per 100 possessions when that player is on the floor – leads all Warriors starters (118.4) so far in the preseason. His value, one way or another, will be monumental yet again.
The outside threats for MVP; The long-shots for MVP
