James Harden, Chris Paul lead outside threats for MVP

Coming Thursday, the long-shots. Check out the front-runners

If there’s one thing we know about this coming NBA season and the MVP race that sparks so many months of debate, it’s that the incumbent is the underdog – again.

Stephen Curry, the Golden State Warriors star who defended his individual crown in historic fashion during their73-win season, has quite the uphill battle ahead if he’s going to become the first back-to-back-to-back winner since Larry Bird in 1986. Even if Kevin Durant hadn’t come to town, Curry would have been up against the pro sports phenomenon known as “voter fatigue.” Add in the fact that there are now two former MVPs and five former All-Stars on Golden State’s roster to share that spotlight, and it will be tougher than ever for Curry to hold onto the coveted Maurice Podoloff trophy.

And, of course, there’s this: the number of MVP-caliber talents in the league right now is downright silly. Alas, here’s a power-rankings style perspective on the MVP race from this vantage point.

Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers

At 31 years old, Paul has officially entered the oldie-but-goodie stage of his career. But before breaking his right hand in the first round against Portland, Paul – who finished sixth in MVP voting – had a very good regular season.

With Blake Griffin missing more than half the season in large part because of his fight with a former assistant equipment manager in January, Paul turned a PER (player efficiency rating) of 26.31 that was his highest in the past three seasons. His overall production – 19.5 points, 10 assists, and 2.1 steals per game – had everything to do with the Clippers surviving all the drama to win 60-plus percent of their games for the fifth consecutive season (53-29, .646). Last but certainly not least, there’s plenty of added incentive here: it’s a free agency year for Paul, who has a player option for the 2017-18 campaign.

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Paul George, Indiana Pacers

Even in the wake of a career-threating injury, George wasn’t shy about sharing his desire to win the award.

A year ago, some 14 months removed from the horrific leg break that cost him most of the 2014-15 campaign, George said in an interview with USA TODAY Sports: “I still have the aspiration of being MVP … I just feel like everything is enhanced having a year out from the game.”

As it turns out, he was right. George is coming off his best season yet, having averaged 23.1 points, seven rebounds and 4.1 assists while returning to his dominant defensive ways. And now, with good reason, he’s saying this: “I want to be MVP … This is my year to go get it.”

Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors

Thompson is used to being in the shadows by now, but this might very well be the year that he emerges like never before. There are plenty of NBA types who believe Thompson will wind up leading the Warriors in scoring, a prediction that the preseason has done nothing but strengthen.

In the preseason, he leads the Warriors in scoring (19.6 per game) while shooting – no typos, here – 58.3% overall and 46.3% from three-point range. Coupled with his reputations as one of the game’s best perimeter defenders, Thompson could wind up making quite a case.

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Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers

As MVP momentum goes, Irving may have more than anyone in the league: not only was he the hero of the NBA Finals, burying that three over Stephen Curry late in Game 7 to clinch the title while averaging 27.1 points (46.8% shooting overall, 40.5% from three-point range), 3.9 assists and 3.9 rebounds. But he also helped Team USA win Olympic gold for the fourth consecutive time, finishing third in scoring behind Kevin Durant and the New York Knicks’ Carmelo Anthony (11.4 per game). And if Irving is truly channeling his inner Kobe Bryant these days, as Cavs coach Tyronn Lue told Bleacher Report recently was the case, then he may be primed to push for an upset MVP run here.

James Harden, Houston Rockets

How soon some forget that he was in a head-to-head race with Curry for the MVP award just two seasons ago, or that he actually won the vote for the 2014-15 campaign from his peers (via the National Basketball Players Association awards). Harden took a step backward last season, when his defense was roundly ridiculed yet again and the Rockets could never stop their freefall.

But with offensive mastermind/new Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni using Harden as a point guard, and complementary pieces like Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon having been added, he may be primed for another elite year. So far so good, as Harden is second overall in preseason scoring (19.6 points per game, tied with Thompson and behind the Phoenix Suns’ Devin Booker at 21.5). The Rockets will need to be in contention for a top four spot in the West for Harden to have a real chance, though.

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