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Tropical cyclones

Tropical Storm Matthew powers up, could veer toward U.S. next week

Susan Miller, and Doyle Rice
USA TODAY
Traffic speeds through floodwaters along Military Highway in Chesapeake, Va., on Sept. 21, 2016. The area was inundated from the remnants of Tropical Storm Julia.

Tropical Storm Matthew, which revved its engines Wednesday east of the Caribbean Sea, could take a sharp northern turn and threaten the U.S. as a hurricane next week.

It's forecast to reach hurricane strength (winds of 74 mph) in the central Caribbean by Friday, the National Hurricane Center said.

The system has been producing tropical storm-force winds since Tuesday afternoon, but it had not been able to gain complete circulation until Wednesday, AccuWeather.com said.

As of 5 p.m. ET Wednesday, the storm was located 65 miles west of St. Lucia and was moving to the west at 18 mph. It had sustained winds of 60 mph.

Tropical storm warnings were in effect for several Caribbean islands, including Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Lucia, Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the lesser Antilles overnight and into Thursday.

"Matthew will take a westward path across the central Caribbean this weekend, where strengthening to a hurricane is possible," according to AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.

The storm is expected to veer north or northwest late this weekend and into early next week, AccuWeather said.

"A northward turn is not out of line with climatology with systems in the Caribbean during this time of the year," AccuWeather tropical meteorologist Mike Doll said.

How far west Matthew turns will dictate whether or not the U.S. Gulf Coast or the Atlantic Seaboard will be at risk, forecasters said.

The storm's track is being influenced by two key weather patterns:

• A southward dip in the jet stream over the south-central U.S. that will pull Matthew northward late this weekend

• Another rainstorm in the Northeast this weekend, which could propel Matthew toward the Atlantic coast if it lingers later into the week. Once that storm exits, Matthew could be drawn onshore in the Southeast.

"Even if Matthew moves northward across Cuba early next week, as we suspect it will, then it could still find a way to get into the eastern Gulf of Mexico," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

More remote possibilities: A continued westward path into Central America and a swing to the northeast, which would keep the storm east of the U.S. next week.

In the meantime, the Windward and southern Leeward islands were expected to feel the first brushes from the storm with gusty squalls, severe thunderstorms and rough surf into Thursday morning, Accuweather said.

Matthew is the 13th named storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, the hurricane center said.

Follow Miller @susmiller and Rice @USATODAYWeather on Twitter

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