In the primary debates, Trump showed what he'll bring to battle with Clinton
Donald Trump the debater is famous for calling others on stage “Little Marco” and “Lyin’ Ted,’’ for mocking Jeb Bush’s energy and Rand Paul’s look, for guaranteeing how big he is.
But in 11 primary debates, Trump also displayed less obvious tactics and tendencies that could indicate how he’ll debate Hillary Clinton on Monday at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., in the first of three contests.
In the primary debates Trump was on stage for a total of almost 24 hours and spoke for three hours, 20 minutes and 7 seconds, a performance that “gives insights into how he could deal with Clinton, and she can deal with him,’’ says Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan and editor of a new book, Debating the Donald.
If nothing else, Trump’s primary debates proved him a master of what Alan Schroeder, another expert on presidential debates, calls “the well-executed moment.’’
Received political wisdom holds that multi-candidate primary debates and one-on-one general election debates are so different that the former can’t tell handicappers or candidates what to expect in the latter.
Trump lobbies moderators ahead of debate
Hillary Clinton prepares for ‘reality show’ debates
The audience is generally less vocal and less partisan. There are no commercial breaks. And it’s one-on-one. Since her first run for office 16 years ago, Hillary Clinton has debated four different opponents in such a format a total of 16 times; in his 16-month political career Trump has never debated in a group of less than four.
Some favorite Trump primary tactics, like bragging about his big lead in the polls or his self-funding, are no longer available in his upcoming encounters with Clinton. But he probably won’t abandon most of what got him this far.
Tics and tricks: Here's what Trump and Clinton's body language reveals
Here are some key elements of Trump’s primary debate performances:
He hit hardest when – and sometimes only if – hit first
Trump’s trademark personal attacks usually came in reaction to an attack. He observed a verbal non-aggression pact with Cruz (that ended once Trump pulled ahead) and never really targeted Chris Christie (who now heads his transition team).
Trump counter-attacked with devastating one-liners. Ask Bush, who after falling in the polls tried to provoke Trump.
In Las Vegas, Trump said, “You’re trying to build up your energy, Jeb, but it’s not working.’’ When Bush extolled the virtues of his mother, a Trump critic, Trump shot back “She should be running.’’
When Cruz was asked why he hadn’t been willing to attack Trump, Trump interjected, “You better not attack ...” Everyone laughed — but Trump wasn’t kidding.
He was unpredictable and inconsistent
Primary rivals didn’t know which Trump to prepare for. They never knew which one would show up.
In the first debate, Trump seized the spotlight by (alone among the candidates) refusing to pledge allegiance to the eventual nominee.
In debate No. 6, he eloquently evoked 9/11 to neutralize Cruz’s attack on liberal “New York values.’’
In No. 10, he rumbled. He pointed to Rubio on his right and said, "This guy's a choke artist …'' and pointed to Cruz on his left and said: "… and this guy's a liar.''
In the last debate, with the nomination in sight, an almost statesmanlike Trump seemed determined to win the debate simply by not losing it. At one point he exclaimed, “I cannot believe how civil it's been up here!’’ — reinforcing a tone with which he, that night, was comfortable.
He played to the crowd, but knew his real audience
Like an actor breaking the stage’s “fourth wall,” Trump liked to address the audience. But communication went both ways. In New Hampshire, Trump was jeered after Bush recounted how the developer used eminent domain to tear down an old woman’s house.
Trump claimed the hall was papered: “You know who has the tickets? Donors, special interests. The RNC told us …’’
Later, when the crowd laughed at his explanation of how he’d replace Obamacare, Trump said, “Part of the reason we have some people laughing (is) you have insurance people that take care of everybody up here.”
There was no evidence to support either charge, but most of the TV audience — 13.2 million, vs. less than 1,000 in the auditorium — didn’t know that.
He didn’t stop arguing when the debate was over
In interviews and on Twitter, Trump always tried to win the after-debate. His personal attack on Fox News’ panelist Megyn Kelly occurred not during the debate but in an interview afterward. And he often claimed victory based on instant (and unscientific) online polls.
After the second debate, widely considered to have been won by Carly Fiorina, Trump said, “All the polls seem to say I did very well. ... The Drudge Report right now has me at 64%.’’ After the fourth debate, he tweeted: “… won Drudge and all the online polls …’’
He subtly belittled opponents
Everyone remembers the insults and ridicule, but Trump undercut opponents in other ways.
• He interrupted. Sarah Partlow-Lefevre, Idaho State University’s director of debate, was counting. During one 80-word exchange Trump interrupted Bush seven times to insist that Bush had said something he was denying.
• He called opponents by their first names, even though — especially early on — rivals generally referred to him as “Donald Trump’’ or “Mr. Trump.’’ By using first names, Trump implied any criticism wasn’t personal, just the truth, and denied opponents the implied honor of a title like “senator.’’
• He flattered. A week after he said Cruz had behaved like a “maniac’’ when he arrived in the Senate, Trump — trying to maintain a tenuous truce —said, “I have gotten to know him over the last three or four days. He has a wonderful temperament.’’
He held the floor
In sports, they call it ball control. Trump simply talked more than his primary opponents.
In his 11 debates, Trump spoke longest six times. Although he sometimes hung back, he never came in less than third. In the key Houston debate on Feb. 25, he spoke for 10 minutes more than Cruz, the second most loquacious.
Sometimes he got more questions from media panelists. Sometimes he drew out answers with fillers like “frankly’’ and “believe me’’ and by pivoting from one topic to another. In the second debate he was addressing a question about women’s health when he suddenly said, “I’d like to get back to the Iran situation …"
He apologized without apologizing
In the second debate, Trump paid the price for previously criticizing Fiorina’s looks when she declined to retaliate but said, “I think women all over this country heard very clearly what Mr. Trump said.’’
Trump ended the matter by saying: “I think she’s got a beautiful face, and I think she’s a beautiful woman.”
In another debate, Trump was asked about his claim that the fact Bush’s wife is from Mexico explained his stand on immigration. Bush demanded an apology.
“I won't do that, because I've said nothing wrong,’’ Trump replied. “But I do hear she's a lovely woman.”
When 'Ford freed Poland': Debate lessons from 1976 for Trump, Clinton
Postscript
To Kall and others who contributed to Debating the Donald, some lessons for Clinton are clear: Don’t hit unless you’re ready to be hit; steer the debate toward detailed (and possibly boring) policy discussions; control the clock if you don’t want Trump to; and watch out if he tells you how good you look.
• QUIZ: Test your memory of general election debates
• INTERACTIVE: Decide the next president's path to the White House