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North Dakota State beat Iowa. How would it fare in the FBS overall?

Paul Myerberg
USA TODAY Sports
North Dakota State's 2016 team might not win any championships at the FBS level, but it would be better than a lot of FBS teams.

North Dakota State has won six games in a row against Football Bowl Subdivision competition, a stretch that began on the opening weekend of the 2010 season with a 6-3 win against Kansas. During that same span, the Jayhawks have won just seven games against the FBS.

Iowa was the Bison’s latest victim. After defeating the then-No. 11 Hawkeyes on Sept. 17, NDSU found itself just shy of a top-25 ranking in The Associated Press poll. (The Amway Coaches Poll does not include teams from the FCS ranks.)

Every win raises the question, along with every passing FCS championship — five in a row and counting for one of the most dominant programs in college football history. How would the Bison fare if part of the FBS?

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It’s a question we attempted to answer by ranking every FBS team thus far in 2016, along with NDSU, using the following categories: non-conference performance, opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings, strength of schedule and non-conference performance data from USA TODAY's college football conference rankings, and the Sagarin ratings.

Combining those five categories allowed for a well-rounded picture of the best teams in each FBS conference, as well as where the Bison might slot into the standings in each league. It’s obvious that NDSU can play with — and beat — a wide portion of teams in the FBS, at least on a given Saturday; we wanted to see if the Bison could compete for an entire season.

What we found by crunching the numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise: NDSU would be extremely competitive in nearly every Group of Five league but largely outclassed over the course of a season if placed in a Power Five conference.

Before looking at each FBS conference, let’s take a quick look at the Bison’s numbers. NDSU ranks 10th in non-conference performance, thanks wholly to the win against Iowa; 85th in adjusted offense; 105th in adjusted defense; 114th in strength of schedule, as a result of two games against FCS peers; and 54th in the Sagarin ratings. In total, NDSU averages to a 73.6 score.

Now, as for how the program would rank in each conference, beginning with the Group of Five:

► The Bison would rank in a virtual tie for seventh place with Memphis and SMU in the American Athletic Conference. Houston had a score of 21.4, among the best in college football. If placed in the league’s West Division, for example, NDSU would be alongside the Tigers and Mustangs in third, behind the Cougars and Tulsa.

► NDSU would be fifth overall in Conference USA, behind Western Kentucky, Southern Mississippi, Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee State. The team would rank no worse than third in either the East or West Division.

►NDSU would also sit fifth in the Mid-American Conference, behind Toledo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Ohio.

► The Bison would be even more competitive in the Mountain West Conference. While a distance behind Boise State (44.8) and not quite up to par with Air Force (61.0) and San Diego State (64.2), NDSU is ranked higher than the league’s remaining nine teams. It’s therefore possible to imagine NDSU winning as many as six or seven games during conference play.

► And in the Sun Belt Conference, the Bison are virtually tied with Louisiana-Monroe for fifth. It’s even easier to picture NDSU being successful in this conference, which has several teams ranked among the weakest in the entire FBS.

Now, for the Power Five conferences — when things start to look a little dodgy for the Bison.

► The Atlantic Coast Conference? Just one team, Virginia (104.8), had a worse rating, though NDSU wasn’t too far behind Duke and Wake Forest.

► In the Big 12 Conference, NDSU is ahead of two teams, Kansas and Iowa State. Surprised? NDSU would be favored by a double-digit margin in a hypothetical matchup with these two bottom-feeders.

► The Bison are ahead of three teams in the Pac-12 Conference: Washington State, Arizona and Oregon State. Could NDSU handle the league’s offensive firepower? Our rankings say no, unfortunately.

► The Southeastern Conference isn’t kind, unsurprisingly. But NDSU does have a higher average score than both Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. While the Bulldogs’ score is hurt by an early loss to South Alabama, being placed ahead of the Commodores is realistic.

► And then there’s the Big Ten Conference. Based on the program’s style of play, you might think that NDSU would be at least somewhat successful as a member of the conference. And you’d be right: the Bison have a higher ranking than five teams — Purdue, Iowa, Rutgers, Northwestern and Illinois — and are nearly tied with Maryland and Minnesota.

So what are the takeaways? For one, that it’s one thing to defeat a single FBS team and another to play FBS teams on a weekly basis. For another, that NDSU would be almost a lock for bowl eligibility in every Group of Five conference. And finally, that the program would a longshot for a national ranking — as it is as of today — if placed into a Power Five league.

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