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$45 is all you're worth on Twitter

Matt Krantz, and Jessica Guynn
USA TODAY
This file photo taken on September 11, 2013 shows the logo of social networking website 'Twitter'  displayed on a computer screen in London.

Twitter (TWTR) may be up for sale and collecting multibillion dollar bids this week. But your Tweets still aren't nearly as valuable as you think they are.

And that might explain why some suitors are less interested, according to reports.

Each monthly active user of the microblogging site is valued at just $45.10 each, which is nearly the lowest among all the major social media players. Twitter users aren't valued anywhere near what Facebook users are despite several bidders reportedly mulling to buy the company.

The price per user took a 20% beating Thursday after shares dropped when technology news outlet Recode said Google (GOOGL) and Disney (DIS) would not pursue Twitter and Apple (AAPL) was unlikely to buy it either. Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce.com (CRM), considered one of the more likely suitors for Twitter, also downplayed his interest during an analyst meeting at his company's annual Dreamforce event in San Francisco. Twitter shares are down 14% this year. "We see diminishing prospects for a takeout," said Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst James Cakmak.

The most valuable social network users are on LinkedIn (LNKD). These users are valued at $243 each, thanks to the $29.4 billion buyout from Microsoft (MSFT) announced in June. Close behind are Facebook (FB) users at $216 each. Twitter users are also valued well below the $171 investors are paying for the smaller user groups on Angie's List (ANGI).

The relatively low value on Twitter quantifies the difficulty the company has had since selling shares to the public back in late 2013. Shares of Twitter nearly tripled in their first months as a public company on great enthusiasm the company could be the next great social network. But since then, shares have crashed 66% from their highest levels in 2013. "I think the market has struggled to pin a value on Twitter, although it appears to be on the way to get sorted out," says Colin Sebastian, analyst at research firm Robert W. Baird.

There are several factors why Twitter's users are so much less valuable than those using rival services, including:

* Weaker monetization.  Users aren't much use to investors unless the company is making money off of them. Twitter drove less than $8 in revenue from each of its users the past 12 months. That pales next to the $32 in revenue per user at LinkedIn. The number of members of Angie's List is just 1% of Twitter's monthly active users. But thanks to its annual subscription model, Angie's List generated $103 in revenue per user over the past 12 months.

Twitter takeover rumors are back

* Lower user growth. Investors might look past the low revenue per user if the number of users was growing rapidly. Twitter's 313 monthly active users in the second quarter was up just 3% from the same period a year ago, which is the lowest user growth among all the social media companies. Yelp's stock is up 46% this year, largely on the company's faster user growth on mobile. The number of unique users of the company's mobile Web site rose 7% in the second quarter from the year ago levels while app users are up 27%.

* Lack of profitability. LinkedIn still hasn't found a way to turn its users into profit, either. The company lost $409 million over the past 12 months based on official accounting guidelines that include all costs. The company is expected to lose money this year and the following two years on the same basis as well, says S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Given these factors, potential buyers will need to be more creative in finding ways to unlock value that have eluded the company so far, Sebastian says. "Any deal would have to assume some level of business synergy," he says. "The data being captured by Twitter, the real-time aspect, and the broadcast platform are what would likely attract an acquirer."

YOUR NOT AS BIG ON TWITTER AS YOU THINK

Investors are paying much less for Twitter users than other social media users

Company, Symbol, Market value per user, Revenue per user *****

LinkedIn, LNKD, $243.85, $32.41 *

Facebook, FB, $216.33, $12.96 **

Angie's List, ANGI, $170.64, $103.08 ***

Twitter, TWTR, $45.11, $7.99 **

Yelp, YELP, $19.25, $3.80 ****

* Based on monthly unique visiting members

** Based on monthly average users

*** Based on total membership

**** Based on desktop unique visitors, mobile web unique visitors and app unique visitors

***** Based on revenue the past 12 months

Source: Company reports, USA TODAY, S&P Global Market Intelligence

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