US likely to fall short of emissions goal

Unless we do more, the U.S. will likely miss the emissions target aimed for in the landmark Paris Climate Agreement last year, says a new study released Monday.

Cutting the emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane from power plants and other sources is key to reducing the impacts of man-made climate change.

Our already finalized laws will get us from as little as 15% to as much as 39% of our emissions goal, said lead author Jeffrey Greenblatt of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Even if all current and proposed emission reduction plans are enacted, the U.S. will still fall short by anywhere from 300 million to as many as 1.5 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions per year, the study found.

"We will likely fall short without additional policies," Greenblatt said.

The additional policies include President Obama’s proposed Clean Power Plan — which would trim carbon emissions from coal power plants and other sources — would be a big step in the right direction, Greenblatt said. The plan, however, faces a potentially lengthy court challenge from 28 states and scores of companies and industry groups that begins Tuesday.

Obama formally entered the U.S. into the Paris Agreement earlier this month, which commits the country to reducing emissions by 26 to 28% of 2005 levels by 2025.

The study comes at a key point in U.S. climate policy. Obama has said the U.S. should be a global leader in fighting climate change — a promise that Hillary Clinton wants to continue but one that Donald Trump would likely shun.

Additionally, if Trump is elected, he said he will repeal the Clean Power Plan.

Karl Hausker, a policy analyst at the World Resources Institute who was not involved in the study, said its methodology and findings are credible. He said the next president will have to continue the policies begun by President Obama.

Though the study that came out Monday is solely focused on U.S. emissions, its author said the U.S. is key player in the global fight against climate change.

"It's true that other nations collectively emit much more than the U.S., but we are one of the world's biggest emitters, right behind China," said Greenblatt. "So reducing our emissions will have a material effect on global totals," he said. "Perhaps more important, however, is that our efforts to reduce emissions can motivate other countries to set similarly ambitious targets."

The study appeared in the peer-reviewed British journal Nature Climate Change.