Growing numbers of 'unreligious' may threaten GOP, but for now don't vote

Young people are increasingly abandoning their families' religious affiliations, creating a potentially powerful and mostly liberal voting block that could bolster Democrats in future elections, according to a new study. But so far, this group has shown weak turnout on election days.

The study released last week by PRRI, a polling group that specializes in studies of faith and values, adds to a research trend showing a dramatic increase in the number of Americans who declare themselves unaffiliated with any religion. In 1991, only 6% of survey respondents declared themselves "unaffiliated." In the new study, that number has risen to 25%, making the unaffiliated "the single largest 'religious group' in America," the study found.

The impact is most dramatic among young people. In 1996, 20% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 declared no religious affiliation. In 2016, that number has risen to 39%.

"This is a new generational dynamic," PRRI CEO Robert Jones, and not just a function of young people rejecting their parents' faith and then trending back to religion when they get older. "We have pretty good data that suggests that's highly unlikely," Jones said. The survey data indicates that people who were raised unaffiliated are half as likely to join a faith community in adulthood as their parents' generation was. That means that people now under 30 will be for decades to come "the most religiously unaffiliated generation we have seen since we have been tracking modern statistics."

Jones said most people are leaving their religious community in their youth, even before college, and mostly because "they have just stopped believing the things that churches, in particular, are selling." In particular, "conflicts around science, the environment, gay and lesbian issues — I think these are things that, particularly for conservative churches, have had a real culture clash with the younger generation." The study found 30% of people who left their church cited negative teachings about gays and lesbians as a key reason, Jones said.

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This should be good news for Democrats: A growing group of voting-age people who are abandoning conservative churches for a more liberal ideology. "They vote about 7 in 10 for Democrats," Jones said. But the PRRI survey shows they don't vote in large numbers. In 2012, "religiously unaffiliated Americans had grown to comprise 20% of the public," but made up only 12% of the popular vote, the study notes. By comparison, "In 2012 white evangelical protestants also comprised 20% of the public, but hey accounted for more than one in four (26%) of voters because of higher voter registration and turnout rates."

"It's a pent-up, potential force her that just hasn't been felt at the ballot box," Jones said, in part because many of them are young people who generally vote at lower rates than older people. As the group ages, they are likely to become more active voters, which could have a dramatic impact on the political landscape.