Yankees at the crossroads: Buy or sell at the trade deadline
NEW YORK -- As the Yankees move slowly along towards the trade deadline, caught publicly in their buyer or seller purgatory, their biggest dilemmas may not come over the next seven days but the months and even years following that. These Yankees, much unchanged from their teams of years past, seem to be caught in-between, relying on aged stars, expensive contracts, and waiting for some kind of cavalry of youth to come in.
Of their top five hitters in the batting order Saturday, none was younger than 32. And only Carlos Beltran, 39, was an All-Star, and Brian McCann the only other above-average offensive player this year.
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Beltran, ironically, represents the Yankees might hope to move away from. He is nearer to the end of his career -- he has said he wants to play two more years after this to reach 20 full seasons in the majors -- and paid handsomely. His contract is the one the Yankees have doled out like candy over the last few years, except this one has not come to bite them in 2016. Still, he’s in the final year of the three-year deal he signed prior to 2014. When asked what has changed with the organization in those intervening years, he was succinct.
“Changed? Not much other than (Derek) Jeter retired,” he said. “That’s it. The organization is always trying to go out and sign players to help the players that we got. It hasn’t changed much.”
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Beltran likely meant that as a sign of continuity and stability. It could also be an indication of a team that has grown stale. After winning somewhere between 84 to 87 games in each of the three preceding seasons and only making the players last year, the Yankees are 49-48, 7.5 games out of first in the American League East and 4.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the second wildcard spot. Only the Tampa Bay Rays are below them in the division standings.
The stars they hoped would propel them to the postseason are old and creaky and, worse, no longer productive. Mark Teixeira has been the third-worst position player in baseball this year, according to Fangraphs’ wins above replacement metric. But at least his $23.125 million salary comes of the books after this year.
Alex Rodriguez is under contract for another $21 million next year. After hitting 33 home runs last year, Rodriguez, 40, is now a part-time player -- a designated hitter who can’t hit this year. And it’s put the Yankees in a bind. He is four home runs short of 700 career home runs and could be one of the few reasons for Yankees fans to keep watching the club this season if they fall further down the standings. But his chase for history comes at a cost. Do they keep him in the lineup for the marketing or take him out because he isn’t productive?
“All depends if they want to get young players (playing time),” one scout who has followed the team this year said. “Very tough call.”
If there’s anything possibly nipping at that decision it’s the Yankees -- once the most bombastic organization in sports -- has lost some luster and becomes, perhaps, even boring. No Yankees players were in the top-20 in jersey sales on the list released this month -- a list that included three New York Mets players, two Boston Red Sox, and four Kansas City Royals. The team’s local television ratings have fallen behind the Mets’ this season -- hurt, in part, by a disagreement with the Comcast cable provider that has kept them off that platform.
The Yankees have also seen the ninth largest dip in attendance so far from 2015, losing 2,183 fans per game -- the second straight season they’re seeing a drop-off from the previous year.
“I don’t think they’re boring,” Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. “They’re a talented group that’s a week away from being right in the hunt. If you find winning -- I would strongly disagree with that. It’s all about in the eye of the beholder.”
All of it adds up to a club that perhaps should have its outlook on the future instead of the present, though that is murky too.
If they decide to trade some of their big names at the deadline -- Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Beltran have all been rumored as possible trade-bait -- it will not only give them some small payroll relief but also, depending on the return, bring some much needed talent into the organization’s pipeline. Their farm system ranks as middle of the pack in baseball by the prospecting publications. Of their top-four prospects, according to MLB.com, three have suffered significant injuries this season, while shortstop Jorge Mateo, their top prospect, just returned to Class A after a two-week team suspension. Their top young pitcher, Luis Severino, started the year in the Bronx before a demotion.
But the real haul could be several years from now, when a boffo free agent class could hit the market following the 2018 season. Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez and other stars could all hit the market at the same time. By then, the Yankees could be free and willing to spend again -- they have only $57 million committed to that payroll right now -- and in need of stars. And an organization in need of pizzaz could finally buy some.