Ex-CIA analyst: If Trump were a foreign leader, I'd raise possibility of blackmail

The report a former CIA analyst would write if President Donald Trump were a foreign leader she was assigned to analyze.

American President Donald Trump has doubled down on pushing for closer bilateral ties with Russia, despite warnings from advisers that Moscow remains a serious threat to national security. At his joint press-conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Trump again rejected the Intelligence Community’s (IC) assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election and called for the end to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation on Russia just three days after 12 Russian nationals were indicted for hacking into Democratic Party computers. It was also the same day Russian national Maria Butina was arrested for conspiring against the U.S. by working to stand up back channel links between Moscow and influential Americans, including in the Republican Party, the National Rifle Association and religious groups.

► In the wake of the Helsinki summit, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Dan Coats said Russia is the most “aggressive foreign actor" attempting to interfere in U.S. affairs; the same day, the Trump administration announced it invited Putin to come to the White House this fall (it's now put off until 2019).

► Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said Trump was considering a request from Putin to turn over former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul and businessman Bill Browder, both Putin critics, for questioning. Since the summit, Trump has also parroted known Putin talking points on issues like Ukraine and NATO. 

► Former DNI James Clapper confirmed reports last week that Trump was briefed about Russian interference in the election before his inauguration, including about Putin’s direct involvement. He said, “there was skepticism [from Trump] from the get-go from that day to this day."

Appeasing Russia shows what drives Trump

Trump’s appeasement of Russia is unprecedented for an American president, despite his recent claim that he has been the toughest president on Russia. It is almost certainly driven in part by his desire to protect the credibility of his election victory at all costs, to promote an image of being the ultimate deal-maker, and because of his preference for strong-man leadership. A former KGB officer and skilled manipulator, Putin no doubt recognizes these traits and is leveraging them to manipulate Trump.

Putin publicly admitted at the Helsinki summit that he wanted Trump to win, confirming a key point of the IC assessment. Trump probably is willing to look the other way on Russian interference because it was aimed at getting him elected, even if that means ignoring the threat Russia poses and allowing Moscow to continue attacking the country.

More:Trump, Russia used race to divide America. Now it's a national security problem.

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Why is Trump so enthralled by Putin? What does the Russian president have on him?

► Trump believes he is the ultimate deal-maker and promotes that image by routinely instigating or exaggerating crises before claiming he unilaterally solved them. At his press conference with Putin, Trump claimed relations with the Russia were the worst they had ever been, but that he had repaired them in their bilateral meeting. Similarly, Trump caused chaos at the NATO summit last week and then said he had convinced allies to commit millions of dollars in new defense funding, a claim several European leaders refuted afterward.

► Trump admires strong-man leadership most typically seen in authoritarian leaders and routinely praises those he sees as like him, including Putin, Egyptian President Abdelfattah El-Sisi, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, and even North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un. 

Behavior consistent with blackmail

Trump’s behavior on Russia is consistent with a recruitment tactic employed by intelligence services to turn a person into an asset using damaging information as black-mail. Several senior Obama-era national security officials have said they believe Putin has compromising information on Trump and is using it to make the president do his bidding. Trump and his political base have been undeterred by revelations about his personal life, such as his alleged extra-marital affairs or history of sexual abuse. This suggests that if Moscow does have comprising information, it is likely to be about his personal finances, business practices, or other information that would damage his business. 

► We know that some Trump campaign officials discussed working together with Moscow during the election, suggesting Russia could also be holding additional proof of collusion over the president’s head.  

Trump’s doubling down since the summit and his invitation to Putin to the White House almost certainly have emboldened Putin to continue or even escalate intelligence operations against the U.S. Meanwhile, while several Republicans in Congress have criticized Trump’s relationship with Putin, they have also given Trump wide latitude to advance most of his personal interests and are unlikely to pursue more than procedural slaps on the wrist to curb the president’s Russia efforts. Trump said on Twitter that he plans to implement agreements made with Putin at the Helsinki summit on a range of issues, such as nuclear proliferation, cyber attacks, trade, Ukraine, and North Korea. Many senior officials admitted they had not been briefed on the agreements.

► Republicans will probably rely mostly on existing federal laws and sanctions that limit the extent of bilateral cooperation with Russia on areas like military activities, rather than pushing against Trump directly. The Senate overwhelmingly passed two non-binding resolutions this month in response to Trump’s actions, one reaffirming the U.S. commitment to NATO and another stating the U.S. should not make former or current U.S. officials available for questioning by Russia. 

Cindy Otis, a writer and consultant, worked for the CIA for 10 years as a military analyst and a Branch Chief, specializing primarily in Europe and the Middle East. Follow her on Twitter at: @CindyOtis_.