When it comes to free agents, NFL teams typically pay for how they think a player can help going forward — not what a player accomplished in the past.
An example for the 49ers is new running back Jerick McKinnon, a career backup in Minnesota over the last four seasons, who signed a four-year, $30 million contract this spring.
It’s the fourth-largest contract in the league for a running back. It came despite McKinnon never logging more than 570 yards rushing and three touchdowns over a full season (both career highs in 2017).
Most of the criticism of the deal points to McKinnon’s general lack of production with the Vikings, where he was brought in to back up Hall of Fame candidate Adrian Peterson. Take this from the Sporting News, who says McKinnon’s contract is the third worst in the entire NFL. From Jason Fitzgerald:
This is arguably the worst contract signed in 2018. The 49ers need McKinnon to thrive in their offense, because there is no other way to justify a top running back contract for a player who has never produced 600 rushing yards or 500 receiving yards. This deal is a minefield of potential mistakes, from valuation to structure. He’ll have 16 games to prove the 49ers right.
(Jerick McKinnon #21 of the Minnesota Vikings – Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said McKinnon was the top free agent running back on San Francisco’s board. He indicated there was plenty of competition for his services, which is why he received such a lucrative contract.
“When it comes to a running back, it starts with how do they run the ball? I think he’s an extremely good runner. I’ve loved him since college,” Shanahan said in March. “What is a huge bonus on him is when you talk about the pass game.
“When it comes to separating and beating linebackers and safeties in man-to-man coverage, I definitely think he’s an issue for teams. I think this league, when it comes to third downs and things like that, you move the chains based off of matchups, which allows you to get points in the long run. I think Jerick is very versatile and we can do a lot of things with him.”
Bleacher Report’s Doug Farrar wrote an in-depth piece about how Shanahan could incorporate McKinnon into his offense, including the passing game, where he could be a lethal option for Jimmy Garoppolo in crucial situations.
McKinnon’s athleticism shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s undersized, particularly when compared to San Francisco’s former top running back Carlos Hyde, who has 20 pounds on his replacement. McKinnon makes up for it with his speed and change-of-direction skills.
Here’s how McKinnon compares physically to Shanahan’s former running back Devonta Freeman of the Falcons, who signed the largest running back contract in the NFL last August (five years, $41.25 million).
Given the well-documented history of the Shanahans (and position coach Bobby Turner) developing running backs for their outside zone running scheme, it seems presumptuous to say McKinnon won’t be worth his contract. McKinnon appears to be a good fit based on his playing style, athleticism and value in the passing game. His new team seems unconcerned with his previous numbers as a backup.
“He’s not on the field just to run (routes). He’s not on the field just to run the ball. He can do both and when you can do both, it puts defenses a lot more in a bind and gives us a lot more options,” Shanahan said.
If things don’t work out, the 49ers could move on after paying him $10.5 million for 2018, when all his fully guaranteed money is due. His salary in 2019 won’t be guaranteed until April, allowing the team to cut bait with only the prorated portion of his $2 million signing bonus remaining as dead money, according to ESPN.
San Francisco is entering the 2018 season third in the NFL with some $45 million in cap space, according to Overthecap.com, and projects to have roughly $74.7 million in room in 2019 if the space is rolled over. McKinnon’s money is a relative drop in the bucket.
