NHL draft 2016: Stark talent drop-off in the early 20s

Given the lack of depth in this year’s NHL draft class, and the sharp drop-off in the early 20s, there appears to be a number of teams anxious to claw their way up into the teens, as well as several more trying to get into the top 10 to grab one of the premium talents. We say that knowing full well that there have already have been trades involving first-round picks.

Edmonton’s never-ending search to land a strong veteran presence on the blue line may lead to what we think would be the only potential movement among the top five picks. GM Peter Chiarelli has proven during his years with Boston that he’s not afraid to make bold moves involving big-name players (Phil Kessel, Tyler Seguin, etc.). Now of course, guys such as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and probably Taylor Hall aren’t going anywhere, but Ryan Nugent- Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, and the No. 4 overall pick are definitely in play.

Montreal would love to move up for a chance to land homegrown francophone star Pierre-Luc Dubois to pair up with Alex Galchenyuk as skilled young centers with size. The Habs have the No. 9 pick to dangle along with any number of d-men who might entice the Oilers. Could there be an even larger mega-deal in the works involving P.K. Subban heading to Edmonton to team up with that stable of young thoroughbred forwards to supercharge the Oilers’ engine?

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Which other teams might we expect to make an impact on draft day? Well, Carolina made some strides this season and is loaded with blue-line prospects, plus they hold the 13th and 21st overall picks. While GM Ron Francis has been conservative to this point, the Hurricanes have a stagnant attack and need to replace Eric Staal, the most recognizable fan favorite in franchise history.

That’s where Arizona comes in. The ‘Yotes have a new GM and a desperate need for another young puck mover to pair up with Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the back end. Could the Hurricanes use a combination of their first-round picks and/or a young blue-line prospect to pry the seventh overall pick from the Coyotes to grab a Tyson Jost or perhaps Logan Brown - the type of huge centers who could replace Staal?

Don Sweeney in Boston also has a pair of first rounders (Nos. 14 and 29 from San Jose), and are just on the fringe of where
the premium picks end in this draft. The Bruins really need to get younger, faster, and more mobile on the back end, and would like nothing better than to erase the memory of their late-season collapse by creating a positive stir for the fan base.

To that end, we think they might look to package their two first rounders to try to move up into the back half of the top 10 in order to ensure they can get their hands on one of the top defensemen, such as Mikhail Sergachev or Olli Juolevi.

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One other club we keep hearing rumblings about is the Coloorado Avalanche. There’s talk about changing the culture, and just about everything is potentially on the table. We remain convinced the Avs will make some major moves at the draft, but don’t know if their No. 10 overall selection will be involved. We think it’s more likely to be a pure hockey trade involving some big names - possibly even Matt Duchene and/or Tyson Barrie.

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As for who we think could be surprise first-round selections, here are some names that few outside the hockey scouting fraternity will be expecting to hear so early. Wade Allison came on like gangbusters down the stretch and had a white-hot playoff run, being named the USHL’s playoff MVP. He’s a thick-bodied banger who plays a rugged power game and already skates like a pro.

Also up front, we know a few teams drafting in the back third of the first round love the grit, tenacity, and the abrasiveness Boris Katchouk brings to the rink. He has great passion, and is surprisingly productive on the scoresheet just by being constantly engaged in the traffic areas and having good awareness and re exes around the net.

And a number of teams have inexplicably developed a crush on huge college winger Tage Thompson. We don’t like his heavy feet or lack of any hockey sense in general, but we admit the obvious combination of size and hands will be intriguing to some.

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On the back end, it wouldn’t shock us to hear Dennis Cholowski’s name called in the top 30. The second-tier defenseman from Chilliwack plays a smooth, controlled game with good mobility and puck movement skills. In other words, he’s a lot like today’s prototypical NHL rearguard. His name has popped up in conversations with several teams who consider him a legitimate option.

Between the pipes, Filip Gustavsson is a guy we could see enticing a club looking for a goaltender to groom. He gives teammates confidence with his calm, mature manner. The draft stock of goalies is down all across the league these days, however.