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Brexit
When will we know the result of the 'Brexit' vote?
Kim Hjelmgaard
USA TODAY
Britain may ditch the European Union after Thursday's referendum on the contentious issue.
Polls show an extremely close race on a British exit from the EU, also known as "Brexit." When will we know the result?
The short answer late Thursday night — Friday morning in London — with lots of caveats. Here's why:
- Voting starts at 7 a.m. and closes at 10 p.m. (2 a.m.-5 p.m. ET), but there won't be any exit polls by the major broadcasters because of concerns over accuracy. Some smaller research companies and financial firms, worried about what the outcome could mean for their customers, markets and currency volatility, have commissioned private exit polls but: They probably won't share them and only the truly brave would rely on these to call the race given that they may be a little untested in surveys of this kind or even vested in the result.
- It is illegal in Britain to publish the results of any exit poll before voting finishes at 10 p.m. local time.
- The Electoral Commission says it expects to have a result around "breakfast time" Friday in the U.K. When it says a result, it means it expects to have counted all 382 wards voting. There are small and large areas, so they each have a different weight in determining the overall result. The first of the announcements are due around 11:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. ET). By 3 a.m. or 4 a.m. (10 p.m.-11 p.m.), half should be counted. By 5 a.m. (midnight ET), 80% should be counted, it says. But it's important to remember that while the Electoral Commission will release the counts on individual wards through the night, it won't formally release a verdict until everything's counted.
- Which is where a projection comes in. In other words, we might need to do the math.
- At some point during the night there will be enough wards counted by the Electoral Commission to calculate a likely result, probably before breakfast.
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