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Glenn Reynolds: How to make the U.S. collapse-proof

Decentralizing institutions and limiting special-interest influence could soften a societal fall.

Glenn Harlan Reynolds, USA TODAY
Protest on Capitol Hill in April 2016.

But that raises a question: If you wanted to make a society collapse-proof, what would you do? Is that even possible?

Probably not. Sooner or later, Rome was going to fall. But there are probably some things you can do to make a collapse less likely, and also some things that might make it less disastrous if it happens.

In Tainter’s characterization, as a society gets older, it accumulates more and more complexity — essentially, onion-like layers of institutions, rules and regulations that offer short term benefits at the expense of increasing the society’s overhead over time, even as they reduce its flexibility. Eventually, there’s no reserve left for dealing with new crises, and the society collapses — often in the face of problems it would have weathered easily in its more youthful days.

So one answer would be for a society not to become so complex. This is easier said than done, of course. Human nature being what it is, bureaucrats want to expand their empires, politicians want to employ their constituencies on the taxpayers’ dime and various groups are always trying to mobilize the state’s resources on their own behalf.

Over time, this produces what economist Mancur Olson — in an analysis that meshes well with Tainter’s — calls a web of special interests, one that gradually paralyzes growth. In his The Rise and Decline of NationsEconomic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities, Olson noted that Germany and Japan came back from World War II with enormous economic growth. Britain did not, even though it was on the winning side. Olson speculated that by losing the war, Germany and Japan saw their special-interest webs smashed while Britain’s remained intact and was perhaps even reinforced by victory.

So one thing you’d want would be to limit the growth of this web. That means smaller government, government that’s less involved in administering the things that special interests care about, and one that provides more opportunities for citizens and groups who want to do things to break the web somehow. A very small example: In my home state of Tennessee, a libertarian public interest legal foundation is challenging laws that require a state license — to shampoo hair. By protecting hairdressers from competition, these laws hold down growth, just one tiny strand in a much bigger web of special interest rules. Making it easier for people to challenge those rules probably helps.

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You also might want to limit the damage when things go bad by splitting things up.  A huge empire ruled from a single city would seem much more likely to collapse than a collection of smaller states. (As Tainter notes, after Rome fell, Western Europe did not fall again). In the United States, that might mean maintaining the viability of state governments as independent entities. That way, if some go bankrupt (like, say, Illinois might or like Puerto Rico essentially has) the damage will be contained. And if the federal government were to collapse, the states could pick up some of the slack, limiting the damage.

Of course, in describing a limited federal government, ruling over a nation made up of semi-sovereign states, subject to the rule of law and judicial review I’m not describing anything shocking or new: That’s precisely the kind of government we in the United States are supposed to have under our Constitution.

So maybe we should keep it that way. Just in case.

Glenn Harlan Reynolds, a University of Tennessee law professor and the author of The New School: How the Information Age Will Save American Education from Itself, is a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors.

In addition to its own editorials, USA TODAY publishes diverse opinions from outside writers, including our Board of Contributors. To read more columns like this, go to the Opinion front page and follow us on Twitter @USATOpinion

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