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What will happen if Alex Rodriguez is actually good again?

(PHOTO: Andrew Mills/THE STAR-LEDGER via USA TODAY Sports)

(PHOTO: Andrew Mills/THE STAR-LEDGER via USA TODAY Sports)

By now you may be tired of the constant nonsense surrounding Alex Rodriguez’s arrival at Yankees camp. And yet for all the headlines Rodriguez will generate this month, few — if any — will focus on the one thing that really matters about his return from his year-long suspension: Is he any good?

Every reasonable projection system you can find will suggest he’ll be no better than a useful bench bat, but ultimately his case is difficult to predict because there’s no real precedent: He’s 39, with a history of lower-body injuries, and he just spent a full year away from the game. It doesn’t sound promising.

But no matter how he makes you feel, A-Rod is one of the greatest baseball players who ever lived, and 39 is hardly too old to be productive when you’ve got Rodriguez’s capacity. So though the odds are against A-Rod ever being a good or great Major Leaguer again, let’s at least amount that there’s some real possibility he can still hit, and consider the way the baseball world would be affected if that happens.

Here’s our best guess at what will happen if A-Rod is actually good in 2015. His slash lines (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging) are included for context.

Regular season

Alex Rodriguez (PHOTO: Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports)

Alex Rodriguez (PHOTO: Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports)

April 25 (.315/.394/.470): Off to a hot start, Rodriguez maintains that he feels great and insists he’s playing clean, in the face of heavy skepticism. Reports surface that he is drug tested near daily, and there’s some chance MLB has investigators rummaging through his household garbage.

June 2 (.308/.387/.473): After A-Rod ties and passes Willie Mays on the all-time home run list with a two-homer night, the baseball world explodes with hot takes that use A-Rod’s performance to justify whatever the author already believes about performance-enhancing drugs in baseball. Some write that A-Rod’s performance shows that the effects of PEDs have always been overblown, some say that he must be getting away with cheating again and that the league needs stronger testing policies, some point to his success to say he should have been banned for life. Your opinion remains unchanged.

July 1 (.298/.375/.470): The Mets pay Bobby Bonilla his annual $1.2 million deferred salary payment. LOL! Have you heard about this?

July 10 (.294/.371/.468): After an initial snub, A-Rod is added to the AL All-Star roster as an injury replacement. More hot takes.

July 14: At the All-Star Game, the Cincinnati crowd greets A-Rod with hearty boos just hours after it gave Pete Rose a standing ovation. We get think-pieces. So many think-pieces. A-Rod strikes out in his lone All-Star at-bat, and the National League wins the game.

(PHOTO: Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

(PHOTO: Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

July 27 (.288/.368/.465): With the Yankees hovering around .500 and within reach of the Wild Card, fans react poorly to some chatter that Rodriguez could be traded at the July 31 non-waiver deadline. With A-Rod now hitting in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup nearly every day and no viable alternatives, the team opts to keep him.

Aug. 4 (.280/.362/.458): A thoroughly unsubstantiated tabloid rumor romantically links A-Rod and Miley Cyrus.

Aug. 13 (.273/.358/.449): People notice that A-Rod has been in a slump. The Yankees slump, too. While some point to Rodriguez’s low batting average on balls in play and suggest it’s nothing but bad luck, others gleefully accuse A-Rod of tanking in an effort to get traded, or something. Someone blames the Miley Cyrus distraction, even though there’s still very little to suggest it’s real and A-Rod has refused to even indulge it with a response.

Aug. 19 (.275/.361/.454): Reports surface that Rodriguez has been placed on trade waivers. It is presented as a big deal, and the baseball blogosphere reacts in kind. But, for the zillionth time, it’s not a big deal: Just about every player is placed on trade waivers in August. It is also not a big deal when A-Rod clears trade waivers, since obviously no team wanted to get stuck with his contract.

(PHOTO COMPOSITE: USA TODAY Sports Images)

(PHOTO COMPOSITE: Getty Images)

Aug. 27 (.272/.357/.455): After an injury to Michael Morse sidetracks an upstart Marlins team, Rodriguez is traded to the Miami for a Class AA reliever and some salary relief, with the Yankees still paying the bulk of the millions they owe him.

Sept. 15 (.277/.365/.466): Seemingly comfortable playing in his home town, where he maintains some popularity, Rodriguez heats up down the stretch as Marlins cruise toward one of the NL’s Wild Cards.

Oct. 4 (.276/.362/.459): The regular season ends. Rodriguez was actually pretty good.

The Postseason

Oct. 6: Rodriguez hits a home run off Jon Lester to help lift the Marlins past the Cubs in the Wild Card game. Giancarlo Stanton hits two home runs in the game, but most of the attention goes to A-Rod. Stanton plays it cool but you can tell he’s a little miffed.

(USA TODAY Sports)

(USA TODAY Sports)

Oct. 8: Rodriguez goes 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts as the Marlins fall to Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS. Talk of A-Rod’s unclutchness bubbles up, even though he just hit a big home run in a clutch spot like, two days ago.

Oct. 11: Rodriguez smacks a walk-off single to drive in Stanton from second and give the Marlins a 2-1 lead in the series. People credit Miley Cyrus for relaxing him, even though there’s still zero evidence to suggest he’s dating Miley Cyrus.

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

Oct. 12: The Dodgers turn to Kershaw on three days’ rest with their backs against the wall. A-Rod goes an uneventful 1-for-4 but Miami wins and advances to the NLCS. People are so worked up about the mighty Dodgers losing that they forget to talk about A-Rod for a single day. Probably Yasiel Puig’s fault.

Oct. 16-21: A-Rod and the Marlins beat the Nationals in five games thanks in part to two dominant starts from Jose Fernandez. A-Rod is neither great nor terrible in the series, going 6-for-22 with a homer and a few walks. His performance inspires little coverage, except on New York sports-talk radio, where Cashman is skewered for giving up on him too soon. A few sore Nationals make derisive comments about his PED past.

Oct. 25: Miley Cyrus shows up at Marlins Park for Game 1 of the World Series, and the Internet goes berserk. But she denies knowing A-Rod, insisting she’s just there as a fan, then spends the entire game hanging out at the Clevelander. A-Rod homers in the game and the Marlins beat the Indians, and Cyrus gets a lot more credit.

(PHOTO: Frederick M. Brown/Getty Images)

(PHOTO: Frederick M. Brown/Getty Images)

Oct. 26: At a pre-game media conference, A-Rod flatly denies ever meeting Miley Cyrus. No one believes him. A-Rod hits another homer, and the Marlins win Game 2. Headlines focus on how he slighted Miley Cyrus.

Oct. 28: The Indians take Game 3 in Cleveland. Miley Cyrus is nowhere to be be seen, nor is she ever again seen in the same general vicinity as A-Rod. Over the next several months, the rumor just sort of fades away.

Oct. 29: The Indians win again. It turns out Carlos Carrasco is for real. A-Rod goes 0-for-4 with a strikeout. His lack of clutchness again comes into focus.

Oct. 30: A-Rod goes 1-for-3 with a double and a walk as the Marlins trounce Cleveland to send the series back to Miami.

Nov. 1: The Marlins win their once-a-decade world championship as Fernandez throws a gem and Stanton hits two homers. Rodriguez chips in a pair of hits, though neither really factors in the game. Stanton wins the series MVP. A-Rod plays it cool, but you can tell he’s kind of miffed.

(PHOTO: David Karp/AP Photo)

(PHOTO: David Karp/AP Photo)

Nov. 3: A-Rod gets praise for his veteran leadership on a young Marlins team that was already pretty good before he got there. Many discuss how this version of the Marlins — with Stanton and Hernandez in the fold and a still-new downtown ballpark — won’t have to endure their traditional post-championship firesale.

Nov. 15: The Marlins’ post-championship firesale begins.

Nov. 18: Under pressure from fans and ownership to revitalize an aging and uninspiring roster, the Yankees have no choice but to trade prospects for A-Rod. The cycle repeats anew.

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