Which prospects can put on a big finishing kick?
Playoff time is fun time. It's when the cream is supposed to rise to the top.
So while we at Red Line Report view the top 18 to 20 spots in this year's draft as pretty well locked down — at least as far as who the picks will be, if not the exact order — the time until the conclusion of the Memorial Cup is always a fascinating sprint to the finish line.
We get to see just how far players in strong programs — like Connor McDavid and Dylan Strome in Erie, Ivan Provorov in Brandon, and Nick Merkley in Kelowna — can carry their clubs, and whether they can elevate their games at crunch time. It's an important part of the overall evaluation process.
And for some others who don't have the benefit of playing with strong teams, there's always the chance that being surrounded with a lot of talented players on your country's world under-18 Team will bring out the best in their games and propel them to new heights on the world stage.
So while we're in Switzerland this week scouting the World U-18s, RLR will be watching closely to see if kids like Canada's Jeremy Roy, Thomas Chabot, and Matthew Barzal, the United States' Colin White, the Czech Republic's Pavel Zacha, and Russia's Denis Guryanov can take a leap forward and lead their teams on a special run.
Regardless, we can't wait to see how it all plays out. This race may be heading down the back stretch, but there's still a lot of jockeying going on and it's far from over.
PHOTOS: Red Line Report's top 10 prospects
RISING
Timo Meier (Halifax): Since he stopped trying to do everything himself and began looking over the whole ice and using his linemates, his game has come together.
Noah Juulsen (Everett): Terrific four-way skating ability along with fine puck movement skills, and has really taken his defensive zone education to heart.
Yakov Trenin (Gatineau): Has used his first season in North America to round out his overall game nicely. And he's still a really fine playmaker off the wing.
Zach Senyshyn (Sault Ste. Marie): He just keeps coming on like a runaway freight train. The size, skating, and aggressive attitude stamp him as a solid future pro.
Adin Hill (Portland): Looks awkward in net and it took him a looonng time to make us believers, but the results are undeniable: he stops pucks.
FALLING
Jordan Greenway (U.S. National Team Development Prograum under-18): The passion and consistency simply don't match up with the phenomenal physical tools. Until they do, he's still a risky boom-or-bust pick.
Nikita Korostelev (Sarnia): We can't point to any one single trait that he can hang his hat on that screams, "Future NHLer." We can't pinpoint it - we're just always vaguely disappointed in him.
Jason Bell (Saint John): We love his long-term upside as a good-sized, toolsy offensive defenseman with loads of skill. But we can't deny there has been precious little progress in his defensive game.
News and notes from around the scouting community
-For quite a while, we have felt that Nicolas Meloche is at the same time one of the least touted, and yet surest bets, among this year's probable first-round draft picks. And in the first round of the playoffs, the big, bruising, minute-eating defenseman showed how important he was to the Baie Comeau Drakkar.
Meloche returned from a late-season injury just in time for the playoffs and helped the Drakkar right a listing ship for a team that finished with four wins in 13 games down the stretch with him out of the lineup.
Baie Comeau looked like a completely different squad with Meloche once again patrolling the blue line and giving the club a physical presence while also providing his steady brand of heady play around his own end. Meloche, while not noted as a flashy offensive force, also chipped in three goals and three assists in leading the Drakkar to an easy five-game dismantling of Saint John.
-In what might be his final lap around the QMJHL, veteran coach Benoit Groulx of the Gatineau Olympiques pulled off a pretty big upset with his 14th-place squad taking out the third-place Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. Groulx is expected to take a job in the pros next year after more than a decade in Gatineau (interrupted by a one-year hiatus in the American Hockey League).
The driving force on the ice for the Olympiques was standout Russian Yakov Trenin, who has a team-best eight points in the six-game series. Trenin has been consistently outstanding for the Olympiques all season, save for a brief period when he first came back from a lengthy absence with a wrist injury.
Perhaps the most pleasant surprise in his play is the defensive zone effort that Groulx has been able to instill in the big winger, who consistently sells out his body along the walls to make sure he clears the zone under pressure. At this point, the only thing preventing us from moving Trenin into our first round is his somewhat heavy boots and lack of initial burst - but he's a pretty well rounded prospect.
-Out in the WHL, it's a bit surprising that this is the first time we're mentioning Portland goalie Adin Hill at Red Line Report. All season, it's almost like we were waiting for this kid to falter, but it never happened. He propelled the Winterhawks from a mediocre bunch at Christmas to within three points of Everett for the U.S. Division title, prompting the trade of veteran Brendan Burke to Calgary at the deadline.
Hill has been the team's MVP since Christmas, finishing the regular season with a 31-11-1 record, and very good numbers: a 2.88 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage. Not bad for a goalie who didn't earn his first win until Nov. 21.
He earned those numbers more than any other goalie in the WHL. While the Portland offense is potent, their defense most nights was decidedly mediocre, yet Hill was always there to keep them in the game. The second-year eligible is a very large (6-4, 190) and very competitive netminder who has been playing with loads of confidence leading Portland to the playoffs in his first full WHL season.
Hill got his first taste of the Western Hockey League coming up late last season and winning all four games he played while compiling a 1.65 GAA. It must have seemed like paradise for him after playing behind a horrific Calgary Canucks club all season in the Alberta Junior Hockey League, where he saw more quality rubber than Canadian Tire. That challenging experience seems to have helped his game in the long run, and now his development curve is pointing straight up.
-At least there is a little buzz being generated in scouting circles regarding Dante Salituro in Ottawa. It has been a long time coming in our view, but ultimately the numbers don't lie: five goals and five assists in six playoff games. That comes on the heels of 78 points in 68 regular-season games. There's no question Salituro can generate offense, including under pressure situations and in tight checking. And despite a smaller frame, he has proven himself quite durable, not missing a single OHL game over the last two seasons.
We understand that NHL clubs don't share our level of enthusiasm for the diminutive centre, and his overall game (read: competing below the circles, inflated ego) needs some work. So nobody is going to take him as high as we have him (back end of the first round), but we're satisfied to stick to our guns on this evaluation. We think he'll be a successful pro.