Amick: Thunder's season already on the brink
Kevin Durant was smart enough to know what he didn't know.
As the Oklahoma City Thunder star and reigning MVP sat in the back of a black Chevy Suburban discussing the upcoming season nearly nine weeks ago, he wasn't about to pretend he had a crystal ball when it came to his own future — in terms of his 2016 free agency, or otherwise.
"I'm taking it day by day with the Oklahoma City Thunder," he told USA TODAY Sports then. "That's my main concern."
At least it was back then. The list, which includes the right foot fracture that has kept Durant out all season and the hand fracture that sidelined co-star Russell Westbrook just two games into the regular season, has grown quite a bit in the two months since.
Rare is the instance when a team's season is on the brink in late November, but the Thunder — who announced at shootaround that Westbrook will start in Friday night's game against the New York Knicks — are in a dire predicament. A taxing road back to relevance lies ahead in the next five months, but it should be a fascinating journey to follow. They're hoping Durant is soon to follow Westbrook back in the lineup.
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Even with Wednesday's win against the Utah Jazz that snapped a six-game losing streak, the Thunder (4-12) are 6 games out of playoff position in the Western Conference. Beyond the question of whether they can bridge that gap in the standings, there's the bottom-line question of whether the Thunder can re-assimilate quickly enough when their dynamic duo returns to play like the days of old from here until the regular season's end.
And make no mistake, it might take that kind of elite play for them to pull this off and become one of the most dangerous eighth seeds the league has ever seen.
In the past five seasons, the 2011-12 Utah Jazz had the worst winning percentage of any eighth-seed in the Western Conference when they sneaked in with a .545 success rate (36-30) during the lockout-shortened season. A younger version of the Thunder had the best, going 50-32 (.610) in the 2009-10 campaign before taking on the top-seeded Lakers in the first round. If the Thunder were to match the 49 wins it took the Dallas Mavericks to get in as the eighth seed last season, they would have to go 45-21 from here on out (.681).
But when it comes to the bigger picture, it's safe to assume that all 29 teams outside of Oklahoma City are rooting for the Thunder to miss out on the forthcoming postseason party. Just as so many believed that the odds of LeBron James becoming a free agent last summer would increase with a loss to the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals, the widely-held belief around the league now is that the odds of Durant leaving Oklahoma City will spike if he doesn't win a title (or two) in the next two seasons.
From his hometown Washington Wizards to the Los Angeles Lakers and everywhere in between, they're just fine if the free agency noise that is already building around Durant got even louder with a once-unthinkable absence from the playoffs.
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To that end, all those rival executives wouldn't mind if Westbrook gave his hand more time to heal in these coming days, and if Durant played it safe with his return as well rather than rush back. After all — even with the 97-82 win over the Jazz — the rest of this undermanned Thunder squad clearly isn't capable of meeting this challenge without them.
The Thunder have defended well (rated ninth in the NBA) and showed some grit during a brutal time. But the latest Thunder challenge has not spawned any new stars or brought out everyone else's best like we've seen when the injury bug hit Oklahoma City in years past.
Forward Serge Ibaka has been a less-efficient version of the same player he was offensively last season. His role on that end has increased (shots went up from 12.1 per game to 14.6), but he's scoring at a similar rate (15.1 points per game in 2013-14 to 15.9 this season) because of a dip in field-goal percentage (53.6% to 45.3). What's more, Ibaka's defensive numbers have also gone down (8.8 rebounds per to 7.9; 2.7 blocks per to 2.1).
Point guard Reggie Jackson, who has been so vocal about his desire to be an elite player in this league, has rarely looked like one. Yes, his scoring has gone up significantly (13.1 last season to 20.2) along with his playing time (28.5 minutes per game to 38.8), but his efficiency has taken a serious hit (44% shooting last season to 41.6%; 33.9% from three-point range to 27%; 2.1 turnovers per game to 3.2).
It's been a similar story for third-year shooting guard Jeremy Lamb, who has struggled mightily with consistency for the past month. In all, only the 0-15 Philadelphia 76ers have a worse offense than the Thunder to this point (Oklahoma City, which had the seventh-best offense last season, is averaging just 95.2 points per 100 possessions).
As Durant himself noted early on, the day-by-day approach is the only way to go. They can't worry just yet about what it all means when March and April roll around, when all those months of being in a do-or-die mindset typically reserved for the playoffs starts to wear on their collective psyche as they get closer to this daunting goal. At this rate, that's a problem they'd be thrilled to have.
Follow Sam Amick on Twitter @sam_amick.
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