The Week 9 games that most impact the Playoff
This week in college football is a special one, because it is the last opportunity for the best teams in FBS to make an impression before the College Football Playoff selection committee meets and formulates its first top 25 ranking. Though the committee has been steadfast in saying it is judging and rating teams on their full body of work, there is an undeniable recency affect whether teams are being assessed by a computer, or in this case, humans.
Though there are few matchups involving highly ranked teams that are expected to be close, strong performances by those teams would be well-timed.
1. No. 3 Mississippi at No. 23 LSU
Saturday, 7:15 p.m., ESPN
Line: Mississippi by 3 1/2
Why it matters: Is Mississippi the best team in college football? Statistics suggest that may be the case. The Rebels are in the top 25% of FBS in scoring offense, but they are extremely impressive in other departments. Mississippi is top five in FBS in scoring defense, turnover margin, net punting and team pass efficiency defense, It also is No. 1 in the College Football Computer Composite. All of these numbers bode well for the Rebels as the selection committee convenes this week, but most important is keeping a zero in the loss column. And that is difficult to do when a visit to Baton Rouge is imminent.
Preview: Mississippi (7-0, 4-0 SEC) stuffed Tennessee in a 34-3 victory last week, the Rebels defense flexing its muscle with 12 tackles for losses, including seven sacks, and holding the Vols to 0 net yards rushing on 28 carries. "You have to figure if we can score 17 to 20 points then we have a chance to win a lot of games with the way we're playing (defense)," coach Hugh Freeze said. The Rebels have given up 10.6 points a game to rank first in the nation in scoring defense.
LSU (6-2, 2-2) rolled to a 41-3 victory against Kentucky last week as running back Terrence Magee had a career-high 220 all-purpose yards and ran for two touchdowns. Said coach Les Miles, "This was the best overall game we've had this year start to finish." LSU ranks eighth in the nation with 17 points allowed per game.
Mississippi was a 27-24 winner against LSU last season.
2. No. 7 Oregon at California
Friday, 10 p.m., FS1
Line: Oregon by 18 1/2
Why it matters: Oregon has looked much better since its seven-point loss to Arizona, but it hasn't faced an Arizona-style offense since. California continues playing, albeit losing, very close games, but its fast-paced, unrelenting style will demand a full-game effort from the Ducks, who would be eliminated from Playoff contention with a loss.
Preview: Beaten, battered and bruised after a home loss to Arizona on Oct. 2, Oregon (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) has answered with consecutive victories to re-emerge in the College Football Playoff conversation. The Ducks rolled to a 45-20 victory against Washington last week as Marcus Mariota passed for 336 yards and two touchdowns and freshman running back Royce Freeman ran for a season-high 169 yards and four touchdowns.
Cal, which is playing this game across the San Francisco Bay at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, comes off a disappointing 36-34 loss to UCLA, a game that was the Bears' for the taking until Bruins defensive back Marcus Rios intercepted a Jared Goff pass with 51 seconds left and Cal at UCLA's 36-yard line. Cal (4-3, 2-3) hasn't defeated Oregon since 2008.
"Oregon's going to be a must-win game for us," linebacker Michael Barton said. "We're looking to go to a bowl game this year. I think it's going to be the defining moment of our season."
3. Michigan at No. 5 Michigan State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Line: Michigan State by 17
Why it matters: Because Michigan State's lone loss came on the road against a highly ranked team, the Spartans are considered to have as much claim to Playoff contention as any one-loss team. They might get the benefit of the doubt should their performance Saturday not get high marks in the eye test, because rivalry games tend to bring out the best in underdogs. But with Ohio State rallying, Michigan State does need to continue to playing well, or the Buckeyes could be playing from a position of playoff strength when they visit East Lansing in two weeks.
Preview: Rivalry week hits the state of Michigan full force, and Michigan State, at least, has steeled its perceived weakness. That's the one where the Spartans (6-1, 3-0 Big Ten) turn fourth-quarter soft with wandering focus and an inability to finish.
They blasted that perception to pieces last week by scoring the final 42 points in a 56-17 win against Indiana, 21 in the fourth quarter.
"It was more about keeping an edge when things start to turn (bad)," coach Mark Dantonio said. "When there's adversity, how would we react?"
The Spartans, winners of 21 of their past 23 games, bring an offensive juggernaut that hammered the Hoosiers for 662 total yards. They average a Big Ten-best 47 points a game.
The Wolverines, who have settled in with Devin Gardner at quarterback, rank 12th in the Big Ten in scoring and 14th in total offense.
4. No. 12 Ohio State at Penn State
Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC
Line: Ohio State by 14
Why it matters: Ohio State's lone loss came with a first-time starting quarterback who, in the weeks since, has emerged as a fringe Heisman trophy contender. Had J.T. Barrett not been a neophyte when the Buckeyes hosted Virginia Tech on Sept. 6, would they have won? That is a question the selection committee may address, and they will do so because as long as Ohio State keeps winning, it is a true contender. Penn State has been inconsistent this season but may get a boost from an extra week of preparation for this game.
Preview: Ohio State's offense to fear meets Penn State's defense to respect. It resonates with winner-take-all stakes.
Barrett, since Week 3 the FBS pass efficiency leader, continues playing beyond his years, passing for 17 touchdowns with one interception in his last four games. He directs an attack that has averaged 56 points during a four-game winning streak and 46.5 overall.
Ohio State (5-1, 2-0 Big Ten) has won 18 consecutive regular-season conference games, two shy of the record it set from 2005-07. Penn State (4-2, 1-2) had an idle week to rejuvenate an offense that has scored 19 points in its last two games.
Quarterback Christian Hackenberg leads the Big Ten in passing yards a game at 272.8 but lacks protection. The Nittany Lions lead the Big Ten in points allowed, total defense and rushing defense.
5. No. 1 Mississippi State at Kentucky
Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS
Line: Mississippi State by 13 1/2
Why it matters: For the remainder of the regular season, the Bulldogs alternate matchups with teams that are struggling and teams that are a threat: Kentucky precedes Arkansas, Tennessee-Martin precedes Alabama, and Vanderbilt precedes Ole Miss. The task for Mississippi State, coming off an idle week, looked tougher before Kentucky's showing at LSU. But like the other Playoff contenders in this lineup, the Bulldogs would be helped by a dominant performance in Lexington.
Preview: Three times this season the Bulldogs (6-0, 3-0 SEC), have outscored teams they weren't supposed to beat, knocking off then-top-10 opponents LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn in consecutive games. Perceptions of the first two have changed, but MSU instigated those changes.
Quarterback Dak Prescott, firmly established as a leading Heisman Trophy contender, has completed 61.5% of his passes for 1,478 yards and 14 touchdowns with four interceptions. He has rushed for 576 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.4 yards a carry and has even caught an occasional pass.
Also, the Bulldogs have given up only 20 points a game.
"The offense picks up the defense, and the defense picks up the offense," coach Dan Mullen said. "When we need things to happen, they happen."
If not for the surge by Mississippi State and Mississippi, Kentucky (5-2, 2-2) would be in the conversation for most improved team in the SEC. Until last week's 41-3 loss at LSU, the Wildcats were even positioned to contend for the SEC East title. But the Wildcats weren't up for the hostile atmosphere in Baton Rouge, quarterback Patrick Towles admitting, "I think we were a little bit (rattled) actually."
6. No. 4 Alabama at Tennessee
Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2
Line: Alabama by 17
Why it matters: The College Football Computer Composite was impressed by the Crimson Tide's last game, and it will be intriguing to see how that view meshes with the selection committee's ranking. Many projections have the Alabama as the lone team with a loss in the playoff field, and continued performances like the one the Crimson Tide had last week vs. Texas A&M would help reinforce that.
Preview: Alabama (6-1, 3-1) got well last week, cruising to a 59-0 victory against Texas A&M, which had ranked fourth in the nation in offense but managed eight first downs and 172 total yards against the Crimson Tide. Alabama got six sacks and limited Aggies quarterback Kenny Hill to 138 yards passing.
"This was a big game for us," said Alabama coach Nick Saban, who credited the Tide's offensive line with setting a tone for the game. Saban said he had addressed the underperforming line in the days leading up to the game, telling the players, "I believe in you; I trust in you." Alabama ran for 298 yards and didn't give up a sack until after the outcome had long been decided.
Tennessee (3-4, 0-3) failed to gain a net yard rushing in 28 attempts during a 34-3 loss at Mississippi last week. "We all know we have to step up," Vols QB Justin Worley said. "Our season can't end here."
7. Texas at No. 11 Kansas State
Saturday, noon, ESPN
Line: Kansas State by 10
Why it matters: Kansas State has a great as shot as any at the Big 12 title. It also might be the league's best playoff hope. The Wildcats may need some help, because their one loss came at home to a one-loss team that is very much in playoff contention. What they can't afford is another home loss, especially to a Texas team that may be showing signs of jelling.
Preview: And then there was one. Kansas State (5-1, 3-0) is the only Big 12 team unbeaten in conference play, and it moved into College Football Playoff contention with a 31-30 victory Saturday against Oklahoma. But coach Bill Snyder, who turned 75 this month, didn't want to look that far down the road.
Texas (3-4, 2-2) could be a dangerous opponent for the Wildcats if the Longhorns can mesh all aspects together for the first time since their opener. Quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has passed for 656 yards and three touchdowns in the last two games, and the Longhorns offense, stagnant in the sophomore's first four starts, is picking up steam.
"It's really great, and it's great to see that happen for our offense," coach Charlie Strong said, "because our defense has been getting all the press, and everyone has been talking about how bad our offense is, and for them to come back and score the points that they scored, it's going to help them more than anything, because you think about how they're going to start feeling about themselves."
But Texas' defense was torched in a 48-45 win against Iowa State last week. Kansas State, which has won three in a row since losing to Auburn last month, has no problem with confidence.
Quarterback Jake Waters has passed for seven touchdowns without an interception during the current streak, completing 71% of his passes.
One aspect of this game will be the underdog factor. The favorite traditionally struggles in this series. Texas ended a five-game losing streak in 2013 against the Wildcats, who won as underdogs in all but one of those games.
Analysis by Daniel Uthman. Previews by Don Wade, Paul Buker, Pete DiPrimio and John Shinn.