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October's winning sectors? All of them!

Matt Krantz
USA TODAY
(FILES) In this file photograph taken on August 16, 2013, Freeport security personnel look on at the Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mining complex, one of the world's biggest gold and copper mines located in Indonesia's remote eastern Papua province. Indonesia granted a permit on July 25, 2014 to allow the local arm of US mining giant Freeport McMoRan to resume exportS, six months after the government applied a controversial mineral export ban, the head of Freeport Indonesia told AFP.  AFP PHOTO / OLIVIA RONDONUWU /FILESOLIVIA RONDONUWU/AFP/Getty Images ORIG FILE ID: 531935596

Don't say the word "October" too loudly around investors — it might startle them. But it doesn't have to be the cruelest month if investors know which stocks and sectors to target.

Savvy investors know there are seasonal patterns to markets that can help them sidestep some of October's monthly messes. Seasonal tendencies of certain sectors and stocks show investors how to at least increase their odds of faring better during a month that can smash the market without warning.

"There are seasonal tendencies in equities that are very well-known and well-distributed among trading desks," says Sam Turner, director of large-cap equities with Riverfront Investment Group.

Tech stocks have been a pocket of strength for stocks since 1990, according to research by Sam Stovall of S&P Capital IQ. The information technology industry has generated a 2.7% average gain in October going back to 1990. That tops the 1.5% average gain of the S&P 500 during the same period.

Tech stocks, especially those in the networking area, are especially attractive going into October, Turner says. Stocks in the industry haven't been bid up as much as some other areas of technology.

There are shifts, though, that investors need to be careful of. For instance, energy is the second-worst performing industry since 1990, Stovall says. Energy stocks have gained just 0.6% on average since 1990, just barely ahead of utilities for the worst group.

But lately, that's been changing. Perhaps the best example of a sector that recently has tended to hold up best during recent Octobers is energy. The outperformance of energy during October is one of the better-known cyclical trends lately — and one that makes logical sense as the nation burns fuel to keep warm during extraordinarily cold winters.

The Energy Select Sector exchange-traded fund (XLE), which tracks the energy stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500, has posted an average gain of 5.9% over the past five Octobers, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from S&P Capital IQ. That's well ahead of the 3% average gain by the S&P 500 over the past five Octobers.

And it's been a durable trend over the past five years. Energy stocks have gained in all of the past Octobers except for 2012. But even then, energy stocks fell 2% in October 2012, the exact amount the S&P 500 dropped.

Another sector that's held up relative to the market during the month of October is materials. The Materials Select Sector Select ETF (XLB) has posted an average gain of 4.1% over the past five Octobers.

The power of these sectors — energy and materials — is apparent in the list of the best individual stocks in October. There are 14 stocks in the S&P 500 that have beaten the S&P 500 in each and every October over the past five years. The two top October stocks are materials stock, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and energy firm Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD).

A few other sectors have done OK in October. Consumer discretionary stocks have added 3.6% on average over the past five Octobers. Turner likes the consumer discretionary sector best going into the end of this year, primarily due to homebuilder stocks. He sees the valuations on homebuilders so reasonable that they offer outsized potential returns vs. the risk.

Take Lennar (LEN) for example. The homebuilder isn't as exposed to first-time buyers, the weakest area of the market, as others like KB Home (KBH). But Lennar has a P-E ratio of 16, which is in line with the market, even though adjusted earnings this year are expected to jump 26%, says S&P Capital IQ.

It's there's been a sector to avoid in October as of late, that's been utilities. The sector has posted an average gain of just 1.3% on average over the past five Octobers. And since 1990, utilities stocks have risen just 0.5%, the lowest performance of all the sectors. But again, showing how even monthly patterns can change, utilities were the worst-performing stocks over a longer term, since 1990, Stovall says. But again, they were still up 0.6%.

The great crash of 1987 has given the month of October a bad rap. Smart investors with a long-term plan know it's best to be diversified and ride through any drama in October. But short-term traders trying to outsmart the market need to know where to be.

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