College Football Countdown | No. 26: Arizona
It wasn't too long ago that Rich Rodriguez was set to join the Southeastern Conference, if you recall: Alabama came ringing, back when Rodriguez was at West Virginia, and the two sides talked, chatted, convened and then went separate ways, close but not quite.
Eight years later, Rodriguez stands on the opposite end of the spectrum from Alabama's eventual hire, Nick Saban, on the interlaced topic of pace of play and player safety – the annual offseason dialogue, albeit conducted from separate coasts.
"I call it a farce," Rodriguez said at Pac-12 Media Days in July. "That's just my opinion. No, but I can tell you, you can read long and hard, but if you think pace of play has anything to do with injuries, you drank the wrong poison."
Coaches who cite injuries as evidence for renewing the pace-of-play debate aren't just illogical, Rodriguez said; they're barking up the wrong tree altogether, using faulty rationale to further a "personal agenda."
This is the talk of an accomplished coach operating outside the confines of insecurity and unsteadiness – of a coach fresh off successive eight-win seasons, the finest start by a coach in program history.
It's also the talk of a coach confident enough to toss lobs at the king of the SEC, knowing full well that a career-long résumé of success buys the opportunity to rattle cages from a distant coast.
That's as long as he doesn't stray too close to SEC country, where he might be met on the tarmac by angry, booing, hissing locals – a scenario posed to Rodriguez as he was quickly herded from one building to another on ESPN's campus in July.
Good, he said quickly. "It means I'm doing something right."
LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION :
I think UA either goes 7-5 or 8-4 in the regular season, with toss-up games against Washington, USC, UCLA and Arizona State dictating the final standings. There are too many positives to allow a few negatives to detract from the clear and steady progress seen in and around this program since Rodriguez's arrival more than a year ago.
2013 RECAP :
In a nutshell: Two disappointments: one, an utterly avoidable loss at home to Washington State, and two, an utterly humiliating rivalry loss to Arizona State. What's funny is that Arizona managed to sandwich these two defeats with a 42-16 victory against Oregon, the program's most impressive regular-season win in years. Allow the three-week span to speak at least in part to the rocky, up-and-down nature of any building process, regardless of the speed at which the Wildcats have rocketed up the Pac-12 ladder. In the smaller view, Rodriguez's second team lost a pinpoint-passing quarterback and shifted toward the running game with a fairly substantial decline in overall production; that the Wildcats survived at all offensively was a good sign, but the offense clearly must develop a stronger sense of run-pass balance. The slide on offense was tempered by the growth on defense: Arizona allowed 1.8 fewer yards per rush – totally insane – and 1.3 fewer yards per play than in 2012.
High point: Oregon. Sort of made up for 2009 … no, not really.
Low point: Arizona State.
Tidbit: Arizona has notched back-to-back seasons with eight or more wins just four times as a member of the Pac-12: 1985-86, 1993-94, 2008-9 and 2012-13. Another eight-win finish this fall would give the program its first three-year stretch since 1973-75, when the Wildcats played in the Western Athletic Conference – and long live the WAC, obviously.
Tidbit (fast start edition): Rodriguez has a career record of 66-18 when his team scores first. This includes a 10-2 mark at Arizona.
ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST :
Sacramento Kings draft picks, 2000-12
1. Hedo Turkoglu, 2000
2. Kevin Martin, 2004
3. DeMarcus Cousins, 2010
4. Spencer Hawes, 2007
5. Tyreke Evans, 2009
PLAYERS TO WATCH :
Offense: Just between Ka'Deem Carey, that sublime force of nature, and quarterback B.J. Denker, Arizona's rushing game must replace a combined 530 carries for 2,834 yards and 32 touchdowns. Perhaps no other team in college football faces the demand of replication such lost production. Here's the funny thing: Arizona's running game will continue to dominate regardless of the cast, even if no one single back will match Carey's impact. It will be a team-wide approach in the backfield: Terris Jones-Grigsby, a senior, held the edge following the spring, but he'll be pushed in August by redshirt freshman Zach Green, UNLV transfer Adonis Smith, junior Jared Baker – if recovered from his knee injury – and true freshmen Jonathan Haden and Nick Wilson. In addition, don't be surprised if Arizona incorporates its wealth of options at receiver into the mix, putting skill players in the slot as a third running option. I know Carey's departure hurts, but I can't imagine a scenario where this ground attack doesn't again rank among the league's most prolific – even if takes four or five backs to carry the water.
A good portion of my optimism stems from the strongest offensive line of Rodriguez's tenure. Four of five starters return, led by bookend tackles Mickey Baucus and Fabbians Ebbele; this pair paves the way in protection, providing a huge boost to Arizona's to-be-named new starter under center. With Cayman Bundage and Steven Gurrola back at left guard and center, respectively, Arizona can focus on fixing two concerns: one, the hole at right guard, and two, a lack of proven depth. The latter will take a hit should junior Lene Maiava take the job at right guard, moving ahead of redshirt freshman Jacob Alsadek, because Maiava is the only lineman outside the top four with any starting experience. But he'll start if the best option, obviously, meaning the Wildcats really must secure its top five – and start building toward the future – by locating three or four trustworthy reserves.
This looks very much like the Pac-12's best receiver corps – and better yet, it's a group that hasn't even cracked its potential. The big news is the return of senior Austin Hill, a potential All-American coming off a season lost to injury; if healthy, there may not be a better receiver in the conference. The long-term benefit of Hill's absence was the time it afforded the Wildcats' younger core to develop, giving sophomores Nate Phillips (51 receptions for 696 yards), Trey Griffey (14 for 170) and Samajie Grant (47 for 373) the opportunity to gain early experience within the offense. One year later, this group forms the core of the Wildcats' pass-game efforts. That may be enough … but there's more. Arizona will also into the mix transfers DaVonte' Neal (Notre Dame) and Cayleb Jones (Texas), giving this receiver corps even more juice, experience, explosiveness and untapped, wall-to-wall promise. Another name to consider: David Richards seems healthy, likely ensuring a spot in the rotation. No team in the Pac-12 has the bodies to run with this entire group; no team in the country has the juice to hang with this group. Best receiver corps in the Pac-12? It's one of the best nationally.
Defense: The numbers simply speak for themselves: Arizona allowed nearly 100 fewer yards of offense and nearly two fewer touchdowns per game than in 2012, not to mention just shy of two fewer yards per carry – and seeing that opponents ran the ball 531 times on the Wildcats, that average is simply outstanding. It's becoming clear – as if this hasn't been said over and over again – that enticing Jeff Casteel to come to Tucson may end up being the difference; Casteel didn't come to Michigan, as you may have heard, but has arrived at Arizona and rapidly altered the program's sense of defensive self-worth. He does it in a most unorthodox fashion: Arizona's 3-3-5 defense is attempted by only a select few other programs in the country, and perhaps no coordinator runs it better than Casteel.
Although getting to the quarterback is not the primary task for this three-man front, Arizona does need to add speed and acceleration on the edges. That creates the strong possibility for an immediate role for LSU transfer Jordan Allen, a likely contributor at end. The Wildcats should eventually settle on a three-player rotation on the outside, with Allen joined by seniors Reggie Gilbert (34 tackles, 7.0 for loss), a returning starter, and Dan Pettinato. Pettinato has the size to slide inside – especially if Arizona goes with an even front – but the most positive development this offseason has been the addition of size along the interior: Arizona added returning missionaries Aiulua Fanene and Sani Fuimaono and JUCO transfers Jerod Cody and Jeff Worthy to holdover Dwight Melvin, meaning this line has the best depth and strongest rotation of Rodriguez's tenure. That's a great thing, considering the speed with which offenses operate in the Pac-12, though no individual interior lineman brings anything resembling proven production to the table. There is some strength to be found in numbers, however.
As is the case up front, Arizona brings a heightened level of depth to the second level; also like the line, experience could be an issue – to an even higher degree, in fact. How the starting threesome shakes out depends on where Arizona and Casteel want to play sophomore Scooby Wright (83 tackles, 9.5 for loss), an all-conference contender who could stick on the strong side or slide into the middle as Jake Fischer's replacement. The middle seems like a good option: Wright could be a menace in Fisher's old role, not to mention open up a spot on the strong side for junior Keoni Bush-Loo. Either decision – Wright inside or out – wouldn't impact the Wildcats' options on the weak side, where the pickings seem slim. For now, JUCO transfer Antonio Smothers and sophomores Jake Matthews and DeAndre' Matthews might hold the edge; Smothers may end up on the strong side, however, meaning true freshman Jamardre Cobb could be set for a significant role on the weak side as a rookie.
Arizona may or may not have senior safety Tra'Mayne Bondurant (79 tackles, 4 interceptions), who enters the final weeks of August in a slight state of limbo – either on the team or off, on the field or along the sidelines, depending on the most recent report. It's vital he's in the fold: Bondurant would help give the Wildcats three senior starters along the back end, joining Jared Tevis (83 tackles) and Jourdon Grandon (73 tackles, 2 interceptions), and this defense needs this sort of experience given the lack of depth and experience at cornerback. If Bondurant isn't available, look for junior William Parks to join the starting lineup; he's been great in reserve. It's all bad news on the outside: Arizona has senior Jonathan McKnight, who has never come close to matching his potential, along with JUCO transfer Patrick Glover, sophomore Devin Holiday and freshmen Cam Denson and Kwesi Mashack. It's not a good situation.
Special teams: Arizona's special teams have been distressingly average. I see little reason to expect major changes from the kicking game: Drew Riggleman has been wildly inconsistent at punter and there's no experience at kicker, where the staff has been looking at junior Casey Skowron and freshmen Josh Pollack and Jack Flatau. I do think, however, that adding Neal, Jones and others to the skill positions will have a very positive impact on the Wildcats' work in the return game.
POSITION(S) TO WATCH :
Quarterback: Let's touch on all four options, if only for pure participation's sake: senior Jesse Scroggins, the former USC transfer via the JUCO ranks; junior Jerrard Randall, the former LSU transfer via the JUCO ranks; sophomore Connor Brewer, the former Texas transfer; and redshirt freshman Anu Solomon, the Wildcats' top quarterback signee of Rodriguez's tenure. Let's eliminate Randall, a nice athlete who seems to be running fourth in the competition heading into the heart of fall camp. Let's also eliminate one of Brewer and Solomon, calling both part of the Wildcats' future but not quite the answer at present – and let's say Brewer's out, though his smarts in protecting the football keep him on the fringes of the race. So that leaves Scroggins, with his strong arm, and Solomon, with his dual-threat gifts and overall potential. All these contenders share one fact: Scroggins, Randall, Brewer and Solomon have combined for zero pass attempts on the FBS level. It'll be interesting, obviously, to see how Rodriguez and the staff comb through the options and settle on a starter – likely ending up one another one-year starter in Scroggins, should he combine his arm strength with a patient approach. If he can limit turnovers, Scroggins looks like Arizona's best choice for the opener.
GAME(S) TO WATCH :
Arizona State: Todd Graham sums up the rivalry in a neat package: ASU could go 11-1 and lose to Arizona and have it be deemed an unsuccessful season, he told me last month; ASU could go 1-11 with a win against the Wildcats and smile all winter long, on the other hand. The Wildcats' schedule features Oregon and Washington from the North Division – the Ducks on the road, no less – and a trip to UCLA, but the Sun Devils and USC come to the friendly confines.
SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION :
In a nutshell: There are enough issues here to keep Arizona out of the top four in the Pac-12 but enough positives to expect another step forward, perhaps into the nine-win range and an end-of-year national ranking. To get there, however, the coaching staff must address five personnel concerns: the change at quarterback, the by-committee backfield, the rotation along the defensive line, the hole at weak side linebacker and the huge decline in experience at cornerback. Hitting on three of the five issues would leave Arizona in great shape – and deserving of a spot in the top half of the Pac-12. Nailing all five would make Arizona a real sleeper in the entire conference, let alone the South Division, and could allow the Wildcats to notch the program's first season with double-digit wins since 1998.
It's safe to say the defense is going to be a year-long issue. Let's give some credit to Casteel, of course, and respect the strides made a season ago; at the same time, it's hard to ignore the issues with experience along the front six and the hole – and lack of depth and experience – at cornerback. Chris Petersen told me last month that playing solid defense in the Pac-12 doesn't merely demand an extra defensive back but an entire extra unit, one that would allow a defense to match wave for wave the matching shifts and changes in personnel on the offensive side. To me, Arizona's secondary simply doesn't have that ability. It'll be on the offense to win games.
The offense should be able to do just that. Scroggins' ability to throw the football should yield a stronger performance from the position altogether, hearkening to Matt Scott's one-year turn in Rodriguez's offense, and his wealth of options at receiver ensures a dynamic performance in the passing game. I know Carey's gone, but the number of backs at Rodriguez's disposal, when teamed with the best line of his tenure, means the running game shouldn't take a massive slide in production. I love the offense – I think it's as good as you'll see in the Pac-12. It just won't be enough to lift Arizona to the Rose Bowl, though the Wildcats must be viewed as a team that can win nine games during the regular season.
Dream season: Arizona knocks off USC and Arizona State to finish second in the South Division.
Nightmare season: The Wildcats' offense struggles with a new quarterback and the defense sputters with its changing cast, leading to a six-win season.
UP NEXT :
Who's No. 25? This team's coach had a record of 123-21 as a full-time FBS assistant.