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The Week 14 games that most impact the Playoff

Each week Football Four focuses on the matchups that are likely to impact the College Football Playoff. Here are the games to watch in Week 14, ranked in order of impact.

Daniel Uthman
USA TODAY Sports
Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott (15) after the game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Davis Wade Stadium.

1. No. 4 Mississippi State at No. 19 Mississippi

Time/TV: Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Line: Mississippi State by 2.

Playoff rankings: Mississippi State 4, Mississippi 19.

Computer Composite rankings: Mississippi State 4, Mississippi 11.

Why it matters: Despite having only one loss, Mississippi State is looking like a tenuous No. 4 seed right now, especially if it doesn't win its division. A dominant performance akin to what Arkansas did to Mississippi last week would be a boon to the Bulldogs.

Preview: It has been an historic season for Mississippi State, which has won 10 games in the regular season and is 6-1 in the Southeastern Conference for the first time in school history. The Bulldogs (10-1, 6-1 SEC) also have set school records for points and total yards.

And yet so much more could be in the offing.

It's not all in their hands, of course, but this much the Bulldogs know: They'll have to defeat archrival Mississippi in the Egg Bowl to keep their grandest dreams alive and make it difficult for the selection committee to exclude them from the College Football Playoff.

Their first step toward making all things possible was to successfully rebound from a 25-20 loss at Alabama, which they did last week in a 51-0 rout of Vanderbilt.

Mississippi (8-3, 4-3) likely needs to be the team it was earlier in the season to win. The Rebels were 7-0 after a victory against Tennessee last month, including a 23-17 victory against Alabama. But now they've lost three consecutive SEC games after last week's 30-0 drubbing against Arkansas in which quarterback Bo Wallace, playing despite an ankle injury, had four turnovers.

The Rebels still lead the nation in scoring defense, their "Land Shark" D giving up only 13.5 points a game.

Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Bo Wallace (14) and offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil (78) at the line during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks.

2. No. 5 TCU at Texas

Time/TV: Thursday, 7:30 p.m., FS1

Line: TCU by 6½.

Playoff rankings: TCU 5, Texas NA.

Computer Composite rankings: TCU 7, Texas 36.

Why it matters: Texas is coming on, which means this is TCU's last chance for a résumé-builder. A dominant, controlling performance by the Horned Frogs would greatly help their case. If TCU falls, it is out of the Playoff chase.

Preview: No team sums up the unpredictability of the Big 12 better than TCU. Picked to finish seventh in the conference standings, the Horned Frogs are two victories away from winning at least a share of the Big 12 title and inching closer to a College Football Playoff berth.

No team displays the volatility of the conference better than Texas. Left for dead in late October, the Longhorns can close the regular season with a kind of momentum that has eluded them for years.

Trevone Boykin's production has slipped in TCU's last three games, the quarterback passing for only three touchdowns. TCU's games against West Virginia, Kansas State and Kansas capped a stretch of eight in eight weeks for the Horned Frogs. Coach Gary Patterson said last week's bye provided much-needed rest.

"I think we've been mentally tired the last couple ballgames," he said. "I think this will help them to be able to refresh."

What TCU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) needs is to replenish its offense with injury-free players. Running back B.J. Catalon sat out the last two games because of a concussion. Get him back, and the Horned Frogs have a three-headed rushing monster to go with Boykin and Aaron Green. Green ran for 299 yards and three touchdowns over the last two games.

Texas' resurgence has been led by its defense, the Longhorns giving up no more than 16 points in any of their last three games. Texas (6-5, 5-3) scored an average of 31.7 points in winning all three games.

Controlling the pace could determine the outcome. The Horned Frogs need to be in the fast lane. The more methodical the pace, the more the upset chances increase for Texas.

TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Cameron Echols-Luper (15) is congratulated by quarterback Trevone Boykin (2) after returning a punt for a touchdown against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at Memorial Stadium. TCU won the game 34-30.

3. No. 16 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama

Time/TV: Saturday, 7:45 p.m., ESPN

Line: Alabama by 9½.

Playoff rankings: Auburn 15, Alabama 1.

Computer Composite rankings: Auburn 10, Alabama 1.

Why it matters: An Alabama win lands the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship game Dec. 6. Does it also land them in the Playoff regardless of the SEC title game result? A loss to a reeling Auburn team, however, would seriously jeopardize any hope the Tide has of making the Playoff, especially because it would cost them the SEC West title and a league championship game berth.

Preview: Alabama (10-1, 6-1 SEC) needs only to beat Auburn to win the SEC West and stay on course for a shot at another national championship. Sound familiar? Alabama and Auburn appeared headed for overtime in last season's Iron Bowl before Chris Davis returned a missed Alabama field goal attempt more than 100 yards for a touchdown on the game's final play, giving the Tigers a 23-17 victory that sent them to the SEC title game and eventually the national championship game.

Auburn Tigers wide receiver Quan Bray (4) celebrates a touchdown during the first half with Auburn Tigers linebacker Cassanova McKinzy (8) against the Samford Bulldogs during the first half at Jordan Hare Stadium.

"It's no secret how big of a game this is for us," Crimson Tide defensive back Cyrus Jones said.

Auburn (8-3, 4-3) would love to play spoiler. The Tigers rank ninth in the country in rushing, but will they be able to run on the Crimson Tide? Alabama has given up 85.3 yards rushing a game, second in the nation. Auburn vows it will be ready.

"Everybody takes it up a notch when it's 'Bama week," linebacker Kris Frost said.

4. Stanford at No. 10 UCLA

Time/TV: Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Line: UCLA by 5.

Playoff rankings: Stanford NA, UCLA 8.

Computer Composite rankings: Stanford 34, UCLA 8.

Why it matters: UCLA will play for the Pac-12 title on Dec. 5 if it wins this game. And if one-loss teams ahead of it in the Playoff rankings fall, the Bruins might have the best case for a playoff berth of any two-loss team.

Preview: The Bruins (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12) were highly ranked potential national title contenders before losing October games to Utah and Oregon. Now they've come back with five consecutive wins.

Now it's the regular-season finale against potentially troublesome Stanford, which reverted to its tried and true sledgehammer approach in last week's 38-17 victory against California.

UCLA Bruins players taunt the Southern California Trojans bench before the second half at the Rose Bowl.

Stumble against the Cardinal, who have a fearsome defense capable of harassing quarterback Brett Hundley, and the Bruins blow everything.

UCLA was impressive last week in a victory against USC that was probably more one-sided than the score indicated. Hundley, unbeaten in three games against the Trojans, passed for 326 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a touchdown in a 38-20 win.

Stanford (6-5, 4-4) had no trouble against defenseless Cal as Remound Wright ran for four touchdowns and linebacker Blake Martinez led a smothering defense with two interceptions and a forced fumble.

5. No. 13 Arizona State at No. 12 Arizona

Time/TV: Friday, 3:30 p.m., Fox

Line: None.

Playoff rankings: Arizona State 13, Arizona 11.

Computer Composite rankings: Arizona State 16, Arizona 14.

Why it matters: The winner of this game also wins the Pac-12 South and a trip to the league title game — if UCLA falls to Stanford at home in a game that will be played simultaneously in Pasadena. An Arizona win also further bolsters the credentials of Oregon, No. 2 in the Playoff Top 25.

Preview: Arizona State is still breathing in the Pac-12 South after the Sun Devils rallied for a 52-31 victory against Washington State.

ASU (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12) must take down Territorial Cup rival Arizona (9-2, 6-2) and hope UCLA loses to Stanford.

ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly passed for four touchdowns in his last home game and running back D.J. Foster scored three touchdowns against the Cougars.

Arizona State Sun Devils linebacker Salamo Fiso (58) celebrates with teammates after returning an interception 14 yards during the second half against the Washington State Cougars at Sun Devil Stadium.

Freshman running back Nick Wilson ran for 218 yards and three touchdowns in Arizona's 42-10 win against Utah last week, but it lost freshman quarterback Anu Solomon to an injury in the game, and he is questionable Friday. Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez had his players practice with the sprinklers turned on to prepare for driving rain in Salt Lake City.

No gimmicks are required this week for the Wildcats, who remember last year's 58-21 loss to ASU.

6. No. 15 Georgia Tech at No. 9 Georgia

Time/TV: Saturday, noon, SEC

Line: Georgia by 13.

Playoff rankings: Georgia Tech No. 16, Georgia No. 9.

Computer Composite rankings: Georgia Tech No. 22, Georgia No. 5.

Why it matters: Georgia is perceived as the biggest league title threat out of the SEC East. Even though the Bulldogs cannot bolster their SEC championship chances in this one, they must win to retain their outside chance at one of the four Playoff spots. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has become a legitimate contender for an at-large New Year's Six bowl berth. But that is gone with a loss.

Preview: The Bulldogs (9-2) need help to reach the SEC title game, namely for Arkansas to beat Missouri. Georgia running back Todd Gurley, first sidelined because of a suspension, suffered a season-ending leg injury vs. Auburn two weeks ago. Running back Nick Chubb ran for 113 yards on nine carries last week in a 55-9 thumping of Charleston Southern, his sixth consecutive 100-yard game.

Georgia ranks among national leaders in total defense, while Georgia Tech sports the nation's third-best rushing attack, averaging 327.9 yards a game on the ground. The No. 15 Yellow Jackets (9-2) rely heavily on sophomore quarterback Justin Thomas, who leads the team in passing and rushing and has accounted for more than 2,200 total yards and 20 touchdowns.

Georgia Bulldogs running back Nick Chubb (27) runs for a touchdown against the Charleston Southern Buccaneers during the first half at Sanford Stadium.

7. Arkansas at No. 17 Missouri

Time/TV: Friday, 2:30 p.m., CBS

Line: None.

Playoff rankings: Arkansas NA, Missouri No. 17.

Computer Composite rankings: Arkansas No. 24, Missouri No. 15.

Why it matters: It has long been assumed the SEC champion will be a Playoff team, but what if the champion is two-loss Missouri? The Tigers control their destiny in terms of earning an SEC title game berth. But Arkansas is difficult to control with the way it is playing lately.

Preview: Missouri (9-2, 6-1 SEC) can clinch the East Division title with a win and earn a second consecutive trip to the SEC championship game. The Tigers were 29-21 winners at Tennessee last week, setting a school record with their 10th consecutive road victory.

"Everybody said we were going to lose this game, too," said Tigers defensive end Shane Ray, who leads the SEC with 13½ sacks. Missouri and Arkansas (6-5, 2-5) are tied for 16th in the nation in scoring defense. Neither has much of a passing attack, with Arkansas ranked 93rd nationally and Missouri 104th.

After losing 17 consecutive SEC games, Arkansas has won two in a row after shutting out LSU and Mississippi and is bowl-eligible for the first time in three seasons.

Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Bret Bielema reacts to a play during a game against the Ole Miss Rebels at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Arkansas defeated Ole Miss 30-0.

8. Florida at No. 2 Florida State

Time/TV: Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Line: Florida State by 7½.

Playoff rankings: Florida NA, Florida State 3.

Computer Composite rankings: Florida 32, Florida State 2.

Why it matters: Florida State, one of two unbeaten teams in FBS, is a Playoff lock if it wins this one and the ACC title game against Georgia Tech. This also is the farewell game of Florida coach Will Muschamp.

Preview: Muschamp, whose record at Florida is 28-20 and will step down after the game, owns a road victory against the Seminoles. In fact, the 2012 triumph marks the last time Florida State suffered a defeat.

The Seminoles (11-0) have rattled off 27 consecutive victories since. Dominant last season, they've successfully negotiated a remarkable tightrope act this season, winning close games against Clemson and Notre Dame and erasing big early deficits against Louisville and North Carolina State.

The latest escape came last week, when a 26-yard field goal by Roberto Aguayo clinched a 20-17 victory against Boston College with three seconds to play. The win sealed Florida State's second consecutive perfect run through the Atlantic Coast Conference but also served as a reminder that the Seminoles can be trapped in a low-possession, low-scoring game on the right day.

That pace would seem to play to Florida's defensive strengths.

Florida Gators wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (11) is congratulated after he caught the ball for a touchdown against the Eastern Kentucky Colonels during the second quarter at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

9. No. 22 Minnesota at No. 14 Wisconsin

Time/TV: Saturday, 3:30 p.m., BTN

Line: Wisconsin by 14.

Playoff rankings: Minnesota 18, Wisconsin 14.

Computer Composite rankings: Minnesota 31, Wisconsin 18.

Why it matters: The winner of this game will play for the Big Ten championship on Dec. 6. Meanwhile Minnesota, because it fell 30-7 to TCU earlier this season, will continue to bolster TCU's status on the direct fringe of the Playoff field if it can win in Madison.

Preview: Minnesota is right where few expected, a win from a berth in the Big Ten title game as West Division champion and two wins from its first conference title since 1967. If it means winning at powerhouse Wisconsin and stopping record-setting tailback Melvin Gordon, bring it on.

"They're a mentally tough group," Minnesota coach Jerry Kill says of the Gophers (8-3, 5-2 Big Ten).

Minnesota brings a middle-of-the-Big-Ten defense against a conference-best rushing attack led by the nation's most prolific tailback. But after winning at Nebraska last weekend to end a 20-game, 14-year road losing streak against ranked opponents, no challenge seems too great — even if running back David Cobb (who has rushed for 1,430 yards) can't play because of a hamstring injury.

Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach Jerry Kill talks to receiver KJ Maye against Nebraska Cornhuskers in the second half at Memorial Stadium. Minnesota won 28-24.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin (9-2, 6-1) has won six in a row behind Gordon, the 17th Football Bowl Subdivision player to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a season. 2,109 rushing yards match a Big Ten record, and he reached 2,000 yards in 241 carries, the fewest in NCAA history.

"Everything is on the line," says Gordon, who averages 191.7 yards rushing a game. "Minnesota is going to give us their all. We're going to give them ours. We have to."

Analysis by Daniel Uthman. Previews by Don Wade, John Shinn, Paul Buker, Patrick Stevens and Pete DiPrimio.

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