(Getty Images)

Dennis Allen’s desk probably hadn’t been cleaned out by the time the whispers began about Jon Gruden returning to the Oakland Raiders. It was so pervasive that Gruden became the second-most trending topic on Facebook, a spot usually reserved for stories of Kardashians and bent iPhones.

Keep in mind these particular Gruden stories weren’t based on rumors or innuendo, just blind (but tasty) speculation that owner Mark Davis would want to reunite with Gruden, the last coach to bring the Raiders to glory. (Yes, Bill Callahan coached the 2003 Super Bowl for the Raiders against Gruden’s Bucs, but it sort of felt like Chucky was coaching against himself in that one.)

I’m sure Mark Davis does want that. He reportedly has been keen on Gruden before. But Davis probably wants cloned versions of Kenny Stabler, Willie Brown, Howie Long and Mike Haynes too, along with a straight-up trade of Derek Carr for Andrew Luck. What he wants is completely different than what he can get. And can the Oakland Raiders get Jon Gruden back?

(AP)

Perhaps, but it’s hard to see why. Gruden has a stable, well-paying, stress-free gig at ESPN. He works in the hallowed Monday Night Football booth and has gotten good at it too, finally finding the line between schtick and analysis. He’s 51 years old and hasn’t coached since the 2008 season. So far, he’s remained in the comfort of MNF rather than face the uncertainty and demands of an NFL job, despite apparent interest on both sides of the table. Maybe Gruden becomes a Bill Cowher type, who keeps putting off a return until he realizes that the life of an analyst is pretty swell.

Or maybe Gruden’s fire can’t be contained. Sitting five stories above the field doesn’t provide the same rush as standing on it, the game on your clipboard. Studying tape of next week’s teams can’t hold a candle to late-night film sessions looking for a weakness to exploit in Andrew Luck. If Gruden can’t resist the urge to get back into coaching, he’d have his pick of suitors. That’s exactly why going to Oakland doesn’t make sense.

(AP)

Why would Gruden waste his comeback on an organization that goes through coaches like most teams go through practice-squad players? Even if he loves Derek Carr, isn’t the specter of a Davis in the front office enough to scare him away? Isn’t the organizational instability too much to trust? The idea is that Gruden would get all the power if he goes to Oakland and that would be too much to turn down. But being in the MNF booth should have shown Gruden that big-money coaches who demand control of everything almost inevitably flame out. (A former Raiders coach — Mike Shanahan — proved that in Washington.) Bill Parcells was wrong. You can’t shop for the groceries and cook them too. They’re both full-time jobs.

Gruden is a fine football coach. He has a great football mind. He also seems to have a good bit of self-awareness. He has to know he’s no miracle worker. The Raiders roster is in desperate need of an overhaul and getting into a rebuilding effort can’t be an enticing selling point.

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

Every coach that fails in Oakland is another reminder that Jon Gruden didn’t. Same goes with the revolving door in Tampa. In that way, Jon Gruden becomes more of a coaching legend with each year he’s out of the game. So if he’s going to put his reputation at risk, he should do it in a place where he has a good chance of succeeding, not in a place where the most likely result is becoming the ex-coach of the Oakland Raiders once again.

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