Texas critical to Cruz's 2016 hopes
Corrections and clarifications: An earlier version of this story misstated Sen. Ted Cruz's campaign schedule on Friday. His wife, Heidi Cruz, has events scheduled in the state. Also, the timing was misstated when Texas' three super-delegates are expected to reveal the candidates they're pledging. It's the state Republican convention in May.
TYLER, Texas — Ted Cruz outfoxed veteran politicians on his way to the Senate and raced to the front of the Republican presidential race.
Now, the Texas senator faces one of the most critical challenges of his political career: capturing his home state in Tuesday's GOP primary.
Like many things in Texas, the prize is huge: the state's 155 delegates are the biggest grab yet of the GOP primary season and more than the four previous states combined.
Cruz has long been seen as the favorite here, with a political infrastructure in place dating back to his 2012 Senate run and big-name Republican backers. On Wednesday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott added his endorsement. But Cruz faces the political juggernaut of Donald Trump, who has won three contests in a row, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who edged him out for second place in South Carolina and Nevada.
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"Super Tuesday, I believe, will be the single most important day of this entire presidential election,” Cruz said at a Houston rally Wednesday. Eleven states, including Texas, will hold GOP contests on Tuesday.
The three candidates will square off in a debate at the University of Houston this evening, along with the other remaining GOP hopefuls, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
How to watch the Houston Republican debate
Then, Trump is scheduled to speak at a rally Friday at the Fort Worth Convention Center, which holds more than 10,000 people. That same day, Cruz's wife, Heidi, has events scheduled in Katy, Rosenberg and Kingwood, according to his campaign website. Rubio spoke at a Wednesday rally in Houston on and will attend another in Dallas on Friday.
In a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released Tuesday, Cruz led all GOP candidates among Texas Republican voters with 37% support, followed by Trump with 29% and Rubio with 15%.
USA TODAY's 2016 Presidential Poll Tracker
Another poll, by WFAA-TV in Dallas and TEGNA, had Cruz and Trump tied at 32% among GOP voters with Rubio at 17%.
“I think if you went back a year ago and look at the Cruz strategy, you’d say Texas is very central to Cruz picking up delegates … and winning the nomination,” said James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. “Trump’s presence in Texas has complicated that.”
The Texas GOP primary is based on a proportional system where 44 delegates are awarded according to statewide results and 108 are allocated based on how the candidates do in the state's Congressional districts. (Three delegates act as super-delegates and aren't obligated to reveal their alliance until the state Republican convention in May.) A candidate needs at least 20% of the vote to win any statewide delegates.
Cruz is still expected to finish strong, said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University in Houston. He has a get-out-the-vote infrastructure in place from his 2012 upset victory over then-Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, as well as the backing of former governor Rick Perry and current Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
Ted Cruz's come-from-behind 2012 win could influence his presidential bid
Still, Cruz would need to win around two-thirds of Texas’ 155 delegates to show he has staying power and boost his chances at the nomination, Jones said. Less than that and his campaign could be showing signs of sputtering, he said. Thus, Trump could lose Texas and still rattle Cruz’s presidential hopes.
“The principal goal for the Trump campaign in Texas is not to win but to wound the Cruz campaign,” Jones said.
In September, Trump drew thousands of supporters to the American Airlines Center in Dallas. His strong stance on immigration, including a proposal to build a wall across the USA’s 1,954-mile border with Mexico, has irked Latino advocacy groups here but has connected with some Texans.
Poll: Trump will struggle with Hispanic voters
The Cruz-Trump-Rubio showdown is expected to play out in places like Tyler, a conservative enclave of east Texas that supported Cruz in his 2012 Senate runoff. If Trump starts to win in east Texas, it could spell trouble for the Texas senator across the rest of the state, Henson said.
Over plates of pork ribs and coleslaw at Stanley’s Famous Pit Barbeque here, Martha Doolin, 64, said she was still undecided on which Republican candidate she’ll vote for Tuesday. Trump generated a lot of excitement early on, but his lack of depth on issues has become a turnoff, she said. The breaking point was when the billionaire real estate mogul boycotted the Jan. 28 GOP debate in Iowa.
“To me, it’ll be between Cruz and Rubio,” Doolin said. “I may not know which one until I walk into the [voting booth].”
A few tables down, Elaine McDonald, 73, offered another reason Trump may not do so well in the Lone Star State: “He doesn’t speak Texan,” she said.
Trump appeals to some voters here because he’s perceived as someone who’ll create jobs and stand up to global threats, she said. But Cruz is seen as independent, principled and church-going — attributes that speak more directly to Texans, she said.
“Cruz is not afraid to stand up and fight alone,” McDonald said. “That means a lot in Texas.”