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Stop comparing Rory McIlroy to Tiger Woods

(Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

With his win at the British Open, 25-year-old Rory McIlroy joined Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods as the only golfers to win three different legs of the Grand Slam before turning 26. This impressive feat brought out the inevitable Rory/Tiger comparisons, with questions such as “can Rory get to Tiger’s 14 majors” or “is Rory about to go on a major championship run like Tiger in 2000?” being thrown around.

Stop. Please. Stop, stop, stop. Rory McIlroy isn’t Tiger Woods. Rory McIlroy isn’t going to be Tiger Woods. Maybe — maybe — he’ll win 14 majors one day, but the odds are so stacked against him that it’s not even worth discussing unless he gets halfway there. Here’s what Rory would have to do to keep at Tiger’s Grand Slam pace: win the next three majors he plays. The odds of him doing that are equivalent to 2014 Tiger Woods doing the same thing. Zippy.

(Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

None of this is meant to diminish McIlroy. He’s currently the brightest star in the game (non-Tiger division) and looks poised to become one of the best players of this generation. But these Tiger comparisons are unfair. No one can live up to Tiger in his prime, not even Jack Nicklaus, who will likely go down as having the better career than Tiger, but not as transcendent a peak. (Even though we could debate the latter point.) Consider the following Rory/Tiger stats:

1. After winning his first major, Tiger went nine years before getting cut at a major. Rory went four tournaments. The wins deservedly get the headlines, but Tiger’s remarkable cut streak is one of his greatest achievements.

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

2. Tiger’s fourth cut came in his 60th major. Rory’s came in his 15th. Here’s what Tiger had to say about Rory this weekend. “When he gets it going, he gets it going. When it gets going bad, it gets going real bad. It’s one or the other. If you look at his results, he’s kind of that way. Very similar to what Phil does.” First of all — burn. That’s a tremendous backhanded compliment out of the Roger Federer school. But it’s also true. Maybe that’ll work for Rory. Maybe it won’t.

3. Tiger outpaces Rory in every major metric. In his first 24 majors, Rory had nine top 10s, six top 3s and three wins. In his first 24 majors, Tiger had 12 top 10s, eight top 3s and six wins.

(AP)

(AP)

4. Rory has 13 worldwide wins in his career. For the 12-month stretch between the 1999 PGA Championship and 2000 PGA Championship, Tiger won 13 times. Wins aren’t as important as major wins, but as Jack and Tiger have demonstrated, you can’t accumulate one without getting some of the other. Rory has won a bunch for such a young player, but he has a ways to go to keep up with the legends.

5. Rory has been No. 1 for 39 weeks. At the same age, Tiger had been No. 1 for more than 140 weeks. The golf rankings are mostly useless, but they still provide an interesting window into the dominance of players. In this case, as in all others, Tiger > Rory.

6. To surpass Tiger’s 14 majors, Rory would need to match Arnold Palmer’s career major wins, then add Phil Mickelson’s career on top of that. Easy, peasy, right? Just combine the careers of two of the greatest players in golf history. This is why the Tiger comparisons are so absurd. Rory is so far from Tiger and so much farther from Jack that it’s like asking whether Andrew Luck will break Peyton Manning’s records. Give it more time before we start thinking big picture. For now, Rory getting to seven, like Palmer, or eight, like Tom Watson, is a worthy, reachable goal. That major total would make him one of the greatest of all time. Let Rory get there first. Then we can set our sights on bigger targets.

(Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

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